Playlist – Page 25 – The Wrongologist

Tuesday Wake Up Call – December 14, 2021

The Daily Escape:

Capitol Reef NP – photo by Jeff Kofoed

The Republicans plan to run out the clock on Congressional oversight.

The WaPo reports that the execrable Peter Navarro, Trump’s trade adviser, told the House committee probing the government’s Coronavirus response that he will not comply with its subpoena.

The House Select Committee investigating the Jan. 6 attempted coup released their contempt report for Mark Meadows, former WH Chief of Staff to Trump. It recommends that the full House bring contempt charges against Meadows. Their report describes some of the more damning evidence already obtained regarding Meadows, mostly derived from documents Meadows had already turned over to the Committee. It shows Meadows’ role in sowing disinformation about the election and his early knowledge of the violence that might result from the MAGA rally on Jan.6.

Most damning, as Politico reports, is one fact describing Meadows emailing someone, saying that the National Guard would “protect pro-Trump people” at the rally.

That’s particularly interesting since, as Marcy Wheeler reports, when DOJ-indicted Proud Boy Charles Donohoe while at the Capitol, saw a public report about the Guard being called in on the afternoon of Jan. 6, he responded with surprise that the Guard would “attack…Trump supporters.”

Did the Republicans plan to bait Democrats into attacking the MAGAs at the US Capitol so that Trump could declare a national security emergency, and suspend the counting of Electoral College votes?

Meadows has sued the Jan. 6 Committee and Nancy Pelosi to block enforcement of the Committee’s original subpoena, as well as the subsequent subpoena it issued to Verizon for his phone records. This is another effort to run out the clock, cutting into the time required for the House Select Committee to reach its final conclusions about the attempted coup.

Steve Bannon has initiated legal action to avoid testifying before the Jan.6 Committee, and his case won’t be heard until July 2022, more of the Republican effort to run out the clock. He’d like nothing more than to have a big show trial heading into the mid-terms.

These are coordinated efforts by some of the principal Trump coup actors to obstruct Congressional oversight.

The Republican plan to run out the clock assumes that the GOP can take control of the House in the 2022 mid-terms. That would shut down any Congressional oversight of January 6, so the Democrats have a little over 12 months left to get their work done on the attempted coup. If you think their report would swing votes in November, then Democrats have just 10 months.

And they better scan all of the documents they have and put them in a warehouse beyond the reach of Republicans once they’re back in power, or all of their work to date will be destroyed.

Few are following this story. Eric Boehlert complains:

“The coup blueprint still hasn’t appeared on the front page of single major American newspaper, nor has any influential editorial page weighed in.”

Plans for the next coup attempt will intensify in the coming months, meaning we can’t afford to lose the House in the 2022 mid-terms. Dan Pfeiffer’s newsletter discusses Democrats’ 2022 political messaging in light of what we know about the coup attempt and the GOP’s overall assault on democracy. He asks: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“If democracy is really in grave danger why aren’t Democrats doing anything about it? Why aren’t more Democrats – including President Biden– more vocal about raising the alarm?”

You’d think that what we know would be enough to get Dems to sing from the same song book. But it seems that the Democratic political playbook is still to focus on “kitchen table” issues while moving to a more moderate message that appeals to suburban independent voters.

Why aren’t the Dem moderates like Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), along with Sens. Manchin and Sinema stepping up to fight back against the anti-democracy efforts by the Republican Party? Pfeiffer says that the Dems should run on saving democracy, but that didn’t work in the Virginia governor’s race. From Pfeiffer:

“The idea that Republicans are a danger to democracy and election integrity is unquestionably true. It is also true that their anti-democratic authoritarianism is the greatest danger they pose in the short term.”

The problem with running on saving democracy is that we don’t know how many people really care that much about it.

Time to wake up America! It’s only Tuesday, but there’s already much to do if we are to save our democracy. To help you wake up, listen to “The Burden of Freedom” by Kris Kristofferson. It originally was on his 1972 album “Border Lord”:

Sample Lyric:

I stand on the stairway, my back to the dungeon
The doorway to freedom so close to my hand
Voices behind me still bitterly damn me
For seeking salvation they don’t understand

Saturday Soother – December 11, 2021

The Daily Escape:

Mesquite Dunes, Death Valley NP, photo by Ed Kendall

(This week’s Sunday Cartoons will appear on Monday)

Wrongo understands that the Jan. 6 investigations are looking in depth at who was behind the attempted coup. But he’s very unhappy with the Democrats’ inability to keep the issue alive, fresh and in front of the American people.

Apparently, communication with the public is too difficult for Democrats.

There are two investigative efforts underway, one by the DOJ, and another by the House of Representatives. Here is the current state of play: DOJ has arrested close to 700 people (possibly more, once you consider cases that haven’t yet been unsealed).

The House Select Committee has already met with about 300 witnesses. They have litigated and won a case against Trump’s assertion of executive privilege. A federal appeals court rejected Trump’s request to block the Jan. 6 Select Committee from obtaining executive branch records. Trump’s path now is to go to the Supreme Court before New Year’s.

The truth will ultimately come out. The question is if anyone will care.

It’s been obvious that Trump’s Big Lie would be the organizing principle of the GOP ever since January 6. It was a delusion to think that the GOP would sober up and fly right, and it’s now clear that they are going to continue to drink the Trump-spiked Kool-Aid for the foreseeable future. It’s highly unlikely that Trump’s followers will allow any Republican candidates to hedge on the Big Lie or pretend to distance themselves from Dear Leader.

The Atlantic’s Barton Gellman wrote a major piece about how the GOP plans to steal the 2022 mid-terms and the 2024 general election. He makes a compelling case that Trump and his cronies are laying the groundwork for a coup in 2024 using the tactics they attempted leading up to and on Jan. 6.

The Congressional investigation is proceeding “top down” and unlike the DOJ, it’s without the constraint of needing near-certainty of a conviction before going public.

The DOJ is proceeding “bottom up” albeit with vast investigative resources, and (hopefully) with a keen sense of what NOT to say prematurely lest it compromise their investigations. The DOJ investigation starts at the Capitol crime scene, building from the useful idiots and militia foot soldiers towards the inciters and commanders.

Congress OTOH, can focus directly on mid-to-upper-level conspirators, like Bannon and Meadows. In a way, both groups are building a bridge from opposite banks of the river. Maybe, someday the two spans will meet. We have to pray it works out that way.

Republicans are rewriting January 6^th and are trying to flush it down the memory hole. It’s certain to work on at least 40% of the country. The issue is whether they can convince another 10% of voters to think there might be nothing to it.

Enough of politics for this week. It’s time for our Saturday Soother!

The weather in Connecticut is unseasonably warm and dry. On the fields of Wrong, it’s time to put up the temporary fencing that keeps the deer from nibbling on leaves and bark. That constitutes much of their winter diets.

Then take a few minutes to brew up a vente cup of True Grit Peaberry coffee ($14.00/12oz.) from Nguyen Coffee Supply, a Brooklyn, NY based roaster that is the first specialty Vietnamese coffee company in the US.

Now grab a seat by a window, settle back in your comfy chair. Watch and listen to George Gershwin’s “Rhapsody in Blue”, played by the Cellista Cello Ensemble from Korea. Here it is played by 12 cellos in an arrangement by Sung-Min Ahn:

The iconic opening riff is usually played on clarinet. But here, it sounds great on the cello.

Rehabilitating Our Democracy

The Daily Escape:

Christmas lights, New Milford Green, New Milford CT – December 2021 photo by Tom Allen. New Milford was founded in 1709.

James Fallows writes a column called “Breaking the News”. His most recent article looks at the growing mismatch between the formal structure of the US government (two Senators per state and the House ceiling of 435 members), and the astonishing population growth in the US since the Constitution was ratified in 1788.

Fallows says the main problem is that modern America is running on antique rules that are too hard to change and too easy to abuse. He sees a Constitutional shift from protecting minority rights, to enabling minority rule, which ultimately means a denial of democracy. A system that is not steered by its majority will not survive as a democracy.

Fallows outlines the changing nature of big vs. small in America. When the Constitution was being negotiated, two issues were big states vs. small states, and slaveholding states vs. non-slave states. At the time, the three most populous original states had around 10 times as many people as the three smallest. That was behind the agreement to the two-Senators-per-state deal. But today, the three most populous states—California, Texas, and Florida—have about 45 times the population of the three least populous, Wyoming, Vermont, and Alaska.

Second, the ceiling on the size of the House of Representatives must change. Fallows observes that when the country was founded, there were 65 members of the House. For the next century-plus, the size of the House increased after the Census, following changes in the US population. Just before World War I, the number was capped at its current level of 435. Today, the US population is about 90 times larger than it was in 1788, but the House is just 7 times as large.

Today there’s a bias against the needs of urban and suburban populations. There’s also a distinct small-state bias in the Electoral College. Each state’s representation in the Electoral College votes equals it’s number of Senate and House representatives. As House membership expanded through the 1800s from 65 to 435, House seats became relatively more important in Electoral College totals, and Senate seats relatively less so. From Fallows:

“To spell it out, in the first presidential election, Electoral Votes based on Senate seats made up nearly 30% of the Electoral College total. By 1912, the first election after House size was frozen, they made up only 18%.”

If the House were expanded, then the Electoral College outcome would more closely track the national popular vote.

Jill Lepore writing in the New Yorker, says that the US Constitution was the first national constitution that provided for its own revision. Article V is the amendment clause. The founders knew that the Constitution was imperfect; Article V left a Constitutional means for making it “more perfect.” Without an amendment provision, the only way to change the rules is to overthrow the government.

But it’s extremely difficult to amend our Constitution. Lepore says:

“The US Constitution has been rewritten three times: in 1791, with the ratification of the Bill of Rights, the first ten amendments; after the Civil War, with the ratification of the Reconstruction Amendments; and during the Progressive Era, with the ratification of the Sixteenth, Seventeenth, Eighteenth, and Nineteenth Amendments.”

She points out that by contrast:

“…American state constitutions have been amended over 7,500 times, amounting on average to 150 amendments per state.”

While state governments freely change, the US Constitution doesn’t. America’s older, but not necessarily wiser.

We could approve the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. It would guarantee the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes. The Electoral College has 535 votes, with 270 needed to win the presidency. In 2020, had 21,461 Biden voters actually switched to Trump, Trump would have won the Electoral College with 270 votes, despite Biden winning nationally by 7 million votes. Each of those 21,461 Biden votes (5,229 in Arizona, 5,890 in Georgia, and 10,342 in Wisconsin) were 329 times more important than the other 7 million votes.

The Compact would end the “winner-take-all” laws in the 48 of 50 states. If passed, the Compact would award their electoral votes in proportion to the votes the candidate receives. Article II gives the states exclusive control over the choice of method of awarding their electoral votes, so they can reform the system if they choose. The Compact would go into effect when enacted by states comprising at least 270 electoral votes.

Time to wake up America! Our current ineffective federal government must change. Otherwise, democracy is doomed.

To help you wake up, watch “Peace Train”, the 1971 anthem of hope and unity written by Yusuf/Cat Stevens, performed here by Playing for Change. This version features Keb’ Mo’ playing in CA, along with Yusuf playing in Istanbul, Rhiannon Giddens in Ireland, along with musicians from 12 countries:

This song is more relevant than ever.

Monday Wake Up Call – December 6, 2021

The Daily Escape:

Arron Burr’s bedroom at the Arron Burr B&B – December 2021 photo by Wrongo

This week’s actual Wake Up Call will occur on Tuesday, because Wrongo and Ms. Right spent the last two nights in New Hope, PA. We stayed at the Aaron Burr House Bed and Breakfast. It’s where Aaron Burr fled after his 1804 duel with Alexander Hamilton. He seems to have stayed for about a week. Although dueling was illegal, Burr was never tried. And all charges against him were eventually dropped.

We didn’t know that our reservation was for Burr’s bedroom. It was fun because we had seen the Disney film version of the play “Hamilton” during Thanksgiving.

There’s a rumor that the place is haunted, but if so, it’s doubtful that it would be Burr’s ghost. He died in 1836 in a NYC boarding house, 32 years after he was in New Hope. Also, the current house was built in 1873 upon the foundation of the home Burr stayed in, so the ghost stories are probably just for marketing purposes.

New Hope is largely a tourist destination, although it has plenty of Revolutionary War history. Apparently, prior to George Washington’s crossing of the Delaware River, he is said to have spent the night in New Hope, although the proof for that is thin.

There’s a tourist train attraction in New Hope, the New Hope Railroad. It’s a one-hour ride that begins and ends in the center of town. On the two days we were there, the trains (which run hourly on weekends) were filled with parents and kids. The US economy must be doing really well, since the Sunday 5pm trip prices ranged from $113-$62 for adults and $103-$52 for children.

That’s today’s travel report from Pennsylvania.

Despite Wrong pushing a real column to tomorrow, here’s a wake-up tune from the sensational play, “Hamilton”. At this point in the play, America has attempted to free itself from England.

After Great Britain defeated France in the Seven Years’ War in 1763, (known as the French and Indian War in the colonies), Britain had run up a huge national debt for the time, amounting to £140 million. This was at a time when their national budget was only about £8 million.

Their solution was to tax the colonies to amortize that portion of the debt that had been used to fight in North America. First came King George III’s Proclamation of 1763 which created an invisible border from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico. That was followed by the Sugar Act of 1764, the Stamp Act of 1765, and the Townshend Acts of 1767.

The British efforts to solve the financial problems generated by the Seven Years’ War soon brought a bigger problem, trying to stave off the American Revolution. Watch Jonathan Groff as King George III singing the very funny “You’ll Be Back” to the American colonists:

Saturday Soother – December 4, 2021

The Daily Escape:

Mexican Hat Rock, Mexican Hat UT – 2021 photo by Jacky and Rick

The media keeps talking about inflation, saying that it’s bound to hurt the economy any time now. They mean that inflation will make workers ask for higher wages. That will force companies to pay workers more, and thus, lower corporate profits.

Sounds like a problem, but as Bloomberg reports, the fattest corporate profits since 1950 are debunking inflation stories spun by CEOs. US corporations enjoyed the widest profit margins in more than 70 years during the second and third quarters of 2021. US corporate profits before adjustments rose to a record high of $3.14 trillion in the third quarter of 2021. From Bloomberg:

“On earnings calls, plenty of executives complained about the squeeze from rising costs of labor as well as materials. But overall, profits were up 37% from a year earlier, according to data out last week from the Commerce Department.”

Nearly two thirds of publicly traded US corporations have reported higher profit margins this year compared to 2020. One hundred of the largest have booked profit margins at least 50% higher than last year’s levels.

Bloomberg reports that businesses have been paying more to their employees too, with total compensation up 12% in the last quarter vs. a year earlier. It’s not that every worker got a raise. A significant part of the increase was due to millions of Americans simply returning to work. But many got raises too. To date, hourly earnings broadly kept up with the fast-rising cost of living. And in some low-pay industries like leisure and hospitality they’ve outpaced it, although not by enough for those firms to get fully staffed.

The new data on corporate earnings suggest businesses are comfortably passing on their higher costs. In recent months, a number of US companies including Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Chipotle, and Dollar Tree have announced price hikes, claiming that the increases were necessary because of higher wages and material costs.

But the Bloomberg data say that these corporate kings are using price hikes to pass their sky-high CEO pay and marginal increases in material and labor costs to consumers, in order to keep padding their already historically strong profit margins.

Still, politicians are calling for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s head. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AK) wrote in the WSJ that Powell doesn’t deserve another term because he caused inflation. Powell’s policies have contributed to US inflation, but there’s zero evidence that US inflation is a problem today.

For months, corporate executives and right-wing politicians have been parroting the claim that inflation in the US is due to Biden’s social spending policies. But the new data show that inflation is going up largely because corporations are driving it.

Remember, corporate profits are up by 37% while inflation amounted to about 6.2% in the same period. In other words, as the economy reopened and prices for goods went up, and corporations used the situation to raise prices a lot.

In fact, the FTC just announced it voted 4-0 to investigate the relationship between competition and supply chain problems. The FTC sent letters to nine dominant firms in supply, retail, and wholesale, mandating they respond within 45 days to a host of questions, as well as give internal documents on various topics.

This matters. Inflation and shortages aren’t neutral forces. The twin problems seem to be *helping* big business improve their profit margins. It’s important to ask why they are happening and who has an incentive to keep them going.

Even Morgan Stanley is now asking corporations to hit the brakes on accumulating profits. Their research division released a report highlighting the gap between corporate profits and worker wages. From the report:

“Real wages…still have to grow by 7.3% in excess of productivity growth to make up the gap….If this catch-up takes place over the next 5 years, unit profits will fall 33% from current levels…This would move the corporate profit share back to its 1990s average on a pre-tax basis and leave it just marginally above on a post-tax basis.”

Imagine. An investment bank telling corporations that they really should be making less profit. Things must be really going to get much worse than we think.

Let’s launch into our weekend, starting with a Saturday Soother. Try to forget about whether a government shutdown will hurt you or Biden, or whether the Supreme Court is now filled with ideological hacks.

Instead, grab a seat by a window and listen to “The Girl with the Flaxen Hair” by Claude Debussy. The Art Nouveau period was obsessed with women’s hair. Debussy was immersed in that world. It’s played here by the LA-based, Sakura cello quintet. Wrongo is a sucker for cello, and there are five of them! This was originally written for piano, and is transposed here for cello:

Monday Wake Up Call – November 29, 2021

The Daily Escape:

Dusk, San Miguel Peaks, Uncompahgre National Forest, CO – November 2021 photo by Tad Bowman

And we’re back from our gratitude-giving, dessert-eating weekend at the Mansion of Wrong. Did I miss anything? Oh yeah, Omicron. It’s the 15^th letter of the Greek alphabet, but it has a darker meaning for people who fear Covid. Omicron is also known as B.1.1.529 Coronavirus variant. It was first detected in Botswana and South Africa earlier this month.

It’s moving fast. Cases have been found in Australia, Hong Kong, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, Israel, and the Netherlands, in addition to several African countries. But we know very little about it so far.

Three questions have to be answered: How rapidly does the variant spread? Is it capable of causing more serious disease than the known variants? Can it circumvent the immune protection of the Covid vaccines?

Once again, we’re facing an unknown. Dr. Fauci said Omicron looks more transmissible than others, and thinks that it’s inevitable that the US will see cases of the new variant. No need to panic, but the US has shut down flights from several African countries. There are questions facing us:

Will we be better prepared for this variant than we were for the past several variants that have killed nearly 800,000 Americans?
If a new variant becomes widespread, will it help make a nation that is already skeptical about its institutions and leaders better able to take direction from the federal government?
Will a substantial minority again toss aside experts and incumbents in a pursuit of self-management of their disease in the name of toxic freedom?

What will the political and economic ramifications of a new surge of disease be as we enter an election year? The battle lines are drawn. We know that the country is very evenly divided, and trying to govern causes one side to demand nearly the opposite of whatever is proposed. People on both sides of the political divide ask: Who can we really trust? Who do we really believe can solve the problem? Who’s really for us?

We used to take it on faith that our country works, that the dollar is a valuable currency, that there will always be a peaceful transition of power. But those things are slipping away. Many think that we are teetering on the edge of something very dark, that we must be pulled back, if we are to preserve America.

What are we actually trying to preserve? Our lack of shared values? The sham of our voting laws? McDonald’s, apple pie and baseball? Think long and hard about these questions. Regardless of what conclusion you reach, you’ll find that it simply won’t resonate with a significant minority of Americans.

Time to wake up America! Our social cohesion is dying. The Fund for Peace ranked the political cohesion of countries between 2008 and 2018. They found that the US had the largest drop in cohesion of any country studied, including Libya, Mali, and Bahrain. Martin Longman likens an asteroid headed straight for Earth to where we are as a society. We complain about the asteroid rather than the destruction it will cause.

To help you wake up, listen to U2 play their global hit “One” live at Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton, Canada in 1997. The song is about finding unity:

Sample Lyric:

Well, it’s too late tonight to drag the past out into the light.
We’re one, but we’re not the same.
We get to carry each other, carry each other… one
Have you come here for forgiveness,
Have you come to raise the dead
Have you come here to play Jesus to the lepers in your head
Did I ask too much, more than a lot
You gave me nothing, now it’s all I got.

“One” is a song about disunity written against a backdrop of reunification. U2 decided to work at Hansa Studios in Berlin. The studio used to be called “Hansa by the Wall” but when U2 got there, the Berlin wall was gone. Bono told the BBC:

“The irony of One’s title is the band wasn’t very close at the time….We were building our own wall right down the middle of Hansa studios.”

Happy Thanksgiving

The Daily Escape:

Turkeys on the fields of Wrong – November 2018 photo by Wrongo

(Wrongo is taking a break for the Thanksgiving holiday. Posting will resume on Monday, November 29th. We should expect that by then, most of what we already know will still be on everyone’s plates, and it won’t be leftover turkey.)

“I am grateful for what I am and have. My thanksgiving is perpetual” — Thoreau

Thanksgiving is Wrongo’s favorite holiday because as a secular holiday, no one commands you to do anything. Celebration is subdued, and at least around here, it focuses on gratitude.

Here’s Wrongo’s thanks to the readers of the Wrongologist. Special thanks go to everyone who reads this crummy blog, particularly those who have stuck around since the beginning: Monty, Fred, David, Marguerite, Kelly, and Terry. Thanks to those who comment and send me private emails saying the equivalent of “What’s wrong with Wrongo?”.

I am grateful that you all stick with it, and with me.

We started this adventure in 2011. Since then, this is the 2,286^th post. This year’s list of readers includes people in 166 countries. The company that hosts the Wrongologist says that in the past 12 months, we’ve had 1.2 million page views. Most readers (43.7%) use a desktop machine, and Chrome (48.2%) is the preferred browser.

Wrongo is grateful every day for this journey he’s on with you. Sometimes, it seems like cynicism and despair is all we have left. But then there are days like today, a crystal clear morning, and at sunup, the temperature outside was 26°F. Hopefully, optimism will stick with us for a few days.

On the big day, we’ll have a fire in the fireplace, “Alice’s Restaurant” playing in a semi-continuous loop, along with good thoughts about the great country that we’re privileged to live in.

We’re thankful to those who came before us, and to our family members and friends who can’t be with us today. We’re thankful to those who are on the front lines in military service, or here at home in our hospitals, schools, firehouses, and police stations.

Let’s listen again to two of Wrongo’s favorite Thanksgiving songs. First, the late Tom Petty and his band Mudcrutch. Petty started his career with Mudcrutch, but everyone knows The Heartbreakers, who he had most of his hits with. Petty returned to Mudcrutch for the last time in 2016, when they released the album “Mudcrutch 2”. Here is Mudcrutch with Petty singing “I Forgive it All”, an incredible reflection on life and forgiveness. The video stars Anthony Hopkins:

Sample lyric:

I ain’t broke and I ain’t hungry
but I’m close enough to care

Wrongo’s other favorite Thanksgiving song is “Be Thankful For What You’ve Got” by William DeVaughn. It sold nearly two million copies after its release in 1974. It reminds us of a time when there was more optimism in America. If you lived or worked in NYC in the1970s, the video will take you back to a difficult period in that city’s history:

Sample lyric:

Though you may not drive a great big Cadillac
Gangster whitewalls TV antenna in the back
You may not have a car at all
But just remember brothers and sisters
You can still stand tall
Just be thankful for what you’ve got

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Monday Wake Up Call – November 22, 2021

The Daily Escape:

Ash Meadows National Wildlife Refuge, NV – November 2021 photo by Marcia Steen

Today is the 58^th anniversary of the assassination of President John Kennedy. While it wasn’t the first time Americans dove deep into conspiracy theories, who killed JFK has always been a controversial topic surrounded by conspiracy theories since that November day.

Over the weekend, we passed a sad milestone. The number of US Covid deaths in 2021 surpassed the deaths in 2020 and we still have a month to go. So far, there have been 385,457 deaths this year vs. 385,343 in 2020 according to the WSJ.

Wrongo has a few observations about what our continuing saga with Covid says about America. Almost 200 million of us are fully vaccinated. In addition, we have had 47 million confirmed cases to date. That means 74.8% of us have some level of antibodies to the several variants of Covid that have traveled through our population in the past two years.

But because: 1) Vaccines haven’t made it beyond the rich world (only 6% of the population in Africa is vaccinated) and 2) Americans seem to value the freedom to control their bodies over public health, new variants that may not be controllable by current vaccines could infiltrate the US.

There’s one very concerning new variant, B.1.640. It appears to be from Africa and has only been seen in small numbers. Apparently it’s bad. The Jerusalem Post mentioned it in” New COVID variant found in France: Reason for panic or not quite yet?” after it spread to Europe:

“A new COVID variant identified in a handful of European countries is raising concerns among some health professionals because there are changes to the coronavirus spike protein that have never been seen before.”

The B.1.640 variant has nothing to do with Delta. Researchers have had a really hard time placing it on the known Covid family tree, because it’s so far removed from anything else, that it just sits on a very long branch of its own. They think that it may elude our current vaccines.

If true, this would be another example of viral evolution completely blindsiding us. And if it isn’t this one, we’ll probably see some other variant.

The sad truth is that America is no longer willing to fight Covid. We think its too hard, and we don’t like doing difficult things. Too many of us don’t want to choose between public health and our economy.

Our unofficial policy is to expect that Covid will become a gradually declining annual infection. But that’s based on the assumption that we have a successful vaccine, that the current variant is all we’ll see, and that the virus will lose its potency over time.

Nobody dares say it out loud, but Covid has revealed the US to be a prime risk for a bioweapon attack.

If a terror group, or an adversary country decided to launch a biological attack, there is clearly nothing that we would do to stop it. How do we know that? Because Covid could have been a biological attack, and it was allowed to spread broadly instead of being properly dealt with. Because it was “too hard” to try to stop it.

We’ve spent countless $ trillions over the last 20 years for “national security”, and this is where we’ve gotten to? Wrongo is starting to think that Churchill’s comment that “the US will do the right thing, after we’ve tried everything else” was overly optimistic.

Time to wake up America! We’ve got to toughen up, or face defeat, not only on the battlefield but in ICUs across America. To help you wake up, here’s a throwback song from another era. Listen to “I’d Love to Change the World” by the late Alvin Lee & his group, Ten Years After from their 1971 Album: “A Space In Time.”

The video doesn’t feature the band, just the song from the album. The video is a film student project that Wrongo likes. Overall, the song looks at what were considered the biggest problems in the world in 1971: Overpopulation, economic inequality, pollution, and war. Unsurprisingly, the issues remain the same:

Sample Lyric:

Everywhere is freaks and hairies
Dykes and fairies, tell me where is sanity
Tax the rich, feed the poor
Till there are no rich no more

I’d love to change the world
But I don’t know what to do
So I’ll leave it up to you

Saturday Soother – November 20, 2021

The Daily Escape:

Floyd Lamb Park, Las Vegas NY- November 2021 photo by Marcia Steen

The biggest, baddest news of the week was that Kyle Rittenhouse was found innocent on all charges in the Kenosha murders.

As bad as that is, there’s some good news to start the weekend. First, the House succeeded on Friday in their months-long quest to pass Biden’s social spending bill. It still faces a serious challenge in the Senate before it can become law.

Second, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reported that the US is the only G7 country to surpass its pre-pandemic economic growth. Employment is up. Wages are up. Goldman Sachs predicts by the end of next year the US unemployment rate will drop to a 50-year low, thanks to continuing red-hot demand for workers. Retail sales surged 1.7% in the month of October. American consumers spent $638 billion in October, a 16% increase from last year.

Meanwhile, slowly but surely, the supply chain bottlenecks that have plagued our economy for over a year appear to be easing. Imports through the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are up 16% from 2018, and in the first two weeks of November, those two ports cleared about a third of the containers sitting on their docks.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a measure of global shipping rates and an inflation indicator, has plummeted 50% since peaking Oct. 7, another good sign for consumers. And the global chip shortage that was crippling the auto industry? GM said that the week of Nov. 1 was the first time since February that none of its North American assembly plants were offline due to a lack of chips.

All of this good news is going to waste because of the media’s hot takes on how bad Biden is doing. From Eric Boehlert:

“For weeks this fall, the Beltway press joined forces with the GOP to tell a hysterical tale about the state of the US economy. It was an alternate version of reality, where the stagnant, faltering economy was being driven to the precipice by runaway inflation, which stood poised to demolish middle-class savings across the board. All while an ineffective president stood by and watched cash-strapped households suffer.”

Boehlert says that recent press coverage suggests the economy is an albatross around Biden’s political neck, while in reality, it’s booming.

Biden got elected to bring a return to normalcy. Since there’s no normalcy in sight, his poll numbers (along with Democrats generally) have plummeted. David Brooks in the NYT addresses Joe Biden’s efforts at meeting the needs of people in “left behind” places of the country that did not vote for him: (parenthesis by Wrongo)

“If (noted economist) Larry Summers thinks lifting wages at the bottom will cause inflation…so be it. The trade-off is worth it to prevent a national rupture.”

Democrats have to get beyond the victory laps when they pass a bill, and let America know what the bills are for. Propaganda is a tool that shouldn’t be used to yammer on about defunding the police. Here’s Wrongo’s list of what Dems should say they’re for:

The Bill of Rights
One person, one vote
A world-class ideology-free education for all American kids
Jobs for more Americans
Universal health insurance
No more foreign interventions
More police funding and more police accountability
Reduce carbon emissions
Zero potholes

That last one is facetious, but it’s political gold in Wrongo’s town, and is funded in the recent infrastructure bill.

The Democrats’ gamble is whether their efforts and their successes will be rewarded politically less than a year from now, in November 2022. Remember that despite what the pundits say, passing the items on Biden’s platform shouldn’t be primarily to woo swing voters. They’re to shore up enthusiasm among your base, something that Dems didn’t have in the recent elections in Virginia and New Jersey.

Right now, things look grim. If you let your mind wander to what might happen if there’s a Republican House and Senate in January 2023, you should be happy not sad, that the Dems aren’t repealing the filibuster.

Let’s take a break and try for some normalcy in our weekend. Wrongo recommends that you start by not watching the Sunday pundit shows. Here on the fields of Wrong, we’re still engaging in our fall clean-up, trying to take advantage of the few warmer days to work outside. Also, there’s some menu planning for Thanksgiving underway.

So, settle into your Saturday Soother, where we leave the chaos behind for a few moments. Let’s start by grabbing a chair near a large window, and listening to the Prague Cello Quartet play an atmospheric version of the theme from “The Phantom of the Opera”:

Increased Demand is Causing Price Inflation

The Daily Escape:

Pueblo Bonito, Chaco Canyon, NM – November 2021 photo by James C. Wilson. It’s difficult to hire stone masons this good today.

“If Americans are feeling glum, they sure are engaging in some retail therapy.”— WSJ’s “Heard on the Street” columnist Justin Lahart

We’re in a period of unclear signals. Every poll says that Americans believe inflation is high and the economy is bad. But unemployment is low, GDP growth is high, and people are buying things like crazy:

“The Commerce Department…reported that sales at stores, restaurants and online rose 1.7% in October from a month earlier, better than the 1.5% economists expected. Additionally, estimates of August and September retail sales were revised upwards. Sales were broadly higher across most categories, with gains at department stores, electronics and appliance stores and online retailers in particular…”

This led economists to revise their fourth-quarter GDP estimates higher. JPMorgan Chase now forecasts GDP will grow at a 5% annual rate in the fourth quarter, versus its previous 4% estimate. The news wasn’t all terrific, as restaurant and bar sales were flat in October versus a month earlier. That might be an indication of cooler weather keeping diners at home as outdoor seating arrangements became less comfortable.

Overall, this dynamic growth in retail sales stands in contrast to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey that fell in early November to its lowest level in a decade.

How to explain what’s going on? People have some savings. Some people have higher wages, and both seem to be having a greater influence on how much people are willing to spend than price increases are having on how they feel about Biden’s job performance.

Claudia Sahm argues that some of the savings are due to government checks, and it was worth it:

“2021 began with economists arguing about $1,400 stimulus checks. Americans got them, but they got higher inflation too. Even so, the checks were very good policy.”

She compares the government’s reaction in the Covid crisis to their reaction during the Great Recession. This time, Congress went big:

“In 2008, Congress enacted one round of stimulus checks, totaling about $110 billion. During the first year of Covid, it sent out three rounds at close to $1 trillion dollars. A family of four got $11,400, which is about 20% of median family income.”

Here’s a chart showing the difference between the two policy approaches. Sahm plotted the value of the payments against the trend of personal income during both recessions:

The three rounds of stimulus checks provided relief to the families whose lives Covid disrupted and it helped bolster the economic recovery by creating jobs. The Covid relief paid the bills. Stimulus helped bring back paychecks.

Most people spend most of the money they make. With smaller take-home money during the crisis, many Americans made a dramatic cut in their spending. And big cutbacks in spending in an economy driven by consumers, led to big layoffs. So, the policy decision to put money in people’s bank accounts was key to keeping the Covid recession as short-lived as possible.

Clearly, the fast recovery came with a cost. Inflation is higher today than it has been in 31 years. But don’t let the inflation doom-sayers fool you: consumer spending, even after taking inflation into account, has been increasing even as millions are out of work.

New Deal Democrat shows us that total activity through the big Southern California ports is breaking records, and yet as we know, they still can’t keep up with the increased import demand:

Despite increased container handling capacity, this explains a great part of the current supply chain bottleneck since the global supply chain is incapable of handling a sudden jump in consumer demand. It partially explains why goods shortages and price pressures have mounted. That, in turn, is pushing up prices. The NYT quoted Aneta Markowska, chief financial economist for Jefferies, an investment bank:

“It’s the demand in the first place that’s causing prices to move higher…There is a supply shortage, but it’s not because of bottlenecks. It’s because we’ve had this big shock to aggregate demand and supply can’t respond quickly enough.”

There are still plenty of logistics bottlenecks. Yes, we’re buying much more stuff, and paying more for it. But households were sitting on a collective $2.5 trillion in savings built up during the pandemic. And millions of jobs have come back, so spend they will.

The Covid recession was a sharp and steep one, the deepest since the Great Depression. But the speed of recovery has been very fast, due in large part to the policy decision to put checks in people’s pockets.

This time, government worked for us.

Let’s have a Thursday tune. Everyone has heard 1981’s “Under Pressure” a masterpiece by Queen and David Bowie. It was covered by Fall Out Boy as part of ABC’s Queen Family Singalong on Nov 4. Lead vocalist Patrick Stump tries to sound like both Freddie Mercury and Bowie. Read the words and you’ll understand why Wrongo offers it today:

The Wrongologist

Geopolitics, Power and Political Economy

Category: Playlist

Saturday Soother – December 11, 2021

Monday Wake Up Call – December 6, 2021