The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has an interesting new report showing that New York Cityâs subway system was a major disseminator of COVID-19 during the coronavirusâ initial infection of the city during March 2020.
They show that subway ridership correlates directly with new cases, particularly in Queens. The near-shutdown of subway ridership in Manhattan (down by 90%) at the end of March correlates strongly with the reduction in the rate of increase in new cases in Queens thereafter.
They superimposed maps of subway station turnstile entries with zip code-level maps of reported coronavirus incidence. That showed Coronavirus propagation followed a process strongly consistent with subway riding. Moreover, local trains appeared to have a higher propensity to transmit infection than express trains, perhaps because people spent longer on those trains. Bus hubs served as secondary transmission routes out to the periphery of the city.
It never ends. On Fox and Friends, Trump said there is âno questionâ the video of the Ahmaud Arbery shooting is troubling. But, he hinted that further evidence might emerge that could possibly exculpate the shooters:
 âYou know, it could be something that we didnât see on tape. There could be a lot of â you know, if you saw things went off tape and then back on tapeâ
The Second Wave, Coyote Buttes North, AZ, bu\ itâs easiest to reach from Kanab, UT â March 2020 photo by thatstheguy
âYou know, that might be the answer â to act boastfully about something we ought to be ashamed of. Thatâs a trick that never seems to fail.â â Joseph Heller
Happy Saturday, fellow disease vectors! Thatâs quintessential Trump. Heâs doing with the Coronavirus what was patented by Richard Nixon in Vietnam: âDeclare Victory and Get Outâ.
Trump had no intention of using the agencies of the US government as a positive force to deal with the pandemic, and now heâs backing out of any role helping the country to recover. From Eric Boehlert:
âTrump has no plan to “reopen” the country and he has no plan to manage this pandemic moving forward. The way I see it, the press dutifully starts each day assuming today is the day Trump gets serious and finally provides serious leadership. It’s not going to happen, though. We’re on our own, yet the press stubbornly pretends otherwise because presidents are supposed to provide leadership in times of crisis.â
Boehlert refers us to Jay Rosen, an NYU journalism professor, who writes:
âThe plan is to have no plan, to let daily deaths between one and three thousand become a normal thing, and then to create massive confusion about who is responsibleâ by telling the governors theyâre in charge without doing what only the federal government can do, by fighting with the press when it shows up to be briefed, by fixing blame for the virus on China or some other foreign element, and by âflooding the zone with shit,â Steve Bannonâs phrase for overwhelming the system with disinformation, distraction, and denial, which boosts what economists call âsearch costsâ for reliable intelligence.â
Trumpâs playbook is to have his re-election ride on manufactured confusion. There wonât be a plot for us to expose, itâs happening right before our eyes. We all know that Trump has no intention of leading. That he has no desire to get involved in helping to solve the greatest American crisis since 9/11. And the disconnect is, that a president acting like this would have been inconceivable before Donald Trump.
It isnât debatable: Trump has washed his hands of the pandemic, and plans to blame the governors when things go wrong, while taking credit for anything that goes right. He isnât even trying to hide that anymore.
We heard this week that Trump buried the CDCâs detailed advice about reopening. The administration doesnât want the public to know what the scientists are recommending. That means people wonât be in a position to hold their employers, or their local governments, to a standard that they either canât, or donât want to meet.
At this point, all we can do is grit our teeth, and try to protect ourselves and our loved ones as best we can.
It seems likely that Trump, because of opting out of what a president is supposed to do in a crisis, will be the proximate cause of the deaths of thousands. All as a cover for his callous ineptitude.
And thereâs little that we can do about it, except hunker down and be careful as we try to get through it.
We need a break from all of this negativity.
We need to settle back in a comfy chair at a socially distant spot, and de-stress from another difficult week. Itâs time for another Saturday Soother, those few moments when we move to a different and better emotional plane. This weekend includes Motherâs Day, so itâs also a time to think about family and how we got to where we are.
To help with that, take a few minutes and listen to some of the world’s biggest current musical artists who collaborated on a BBC Radio 1 cover of the Foo Fightersâ âTimes Like Theseâ. Each performing from their own homes, as has become the standard these days. The group was dubbed the âLive Lounge Allstarsâ and included the Foo Fightersâ Dave Grohl:
Wrongo knows very few of these artists, perhaps showing his age. But this also shows that they should make more music outside of their usual genre. Those who read the Wrongologist in email can watch the video here.
Tim Hunter, BSN, in Brooklyn, NY â April 2020 photo by Tim Hunter
Tim Hunter, an acquaintance from the world of show dogs, is a nurse living in Buffalo, NY. In early April, he accepted a traveling nurse assignment at Kingsbrook Jewish Memorial’s ICU in Brooklyn, NY to help out on the front lines of the COVID-19 fight. Tim posts on his experiences, and he graciously agreed to share this dispatch from earlier this week:
âWednesday May 6th starts Nurse’s Week 2020
The last time we worked, we were informed that we will, moving forward, only be getting our body suits and can no longer get a disposable gown to put over the suit. Big freaking deal right? Wrong. What does this mean? This means we will enter rooms “protected” but after leaving a room we will be tracking COVID all over the unit. Nurses are buying spray alcohol to try and kill whatever lands on the suit so we don’t risk getting each other sick. Or do you take off the suit in between care? Absolutely not. What if you need to intervene right away? There’s no time to get it on.
People who have no relevant education or experience are protesting having to sit at home, while we watch people who have been intubated for weeks struggle, while we’re standing in patient’s rooms and intervening we’re looking at posters of patient’s family, of these people who are dancing at their daughter’s wedding and giving their grandson a piggy back ride. People that were once fine and people that should be able to still be doing those things.
We drive to work in dead silence because we have no idea what we’re in for. Maybe it will be a super typical hospital shift, or maybe it will be the worst night you’ve ever worked.
We’re watching people get tracheostomies after weeks of intubation in hopes that MAYBE someday they’ll be okay enough to have their life back. We’re drying patientâs tears when they wake up from their sedation and they’re terrified!
We’re watching people who we were once hopeful would maybe get off of the vent sustain lung injuries from not being able to handle the pressures of mechanical ventilation any longer.
We listen to family members cry because they don’t know if they will ever see their loved one again, and they mourn that they’re going through this alone.
We see patients grabbing our hands begging us not to leave rooms because they’re lonely, and scared.
We walk past tractor trailer trucks full of dead bodies on our way in and out of work every night. Because there is no way to manage, no morgue can keep up with the amount of people dying. Even now with the “down swing”.
And the end of a shift we feel like our head is in a vice grip, and literally crave a breath of actual fresh air after rebreathing CO2 all night.
We wake up in the middle of the night with a panic because of a headache or any symptom and literally fret over that one time we did compressions or were a part of an intubation, because of how high risk those events are.
You know what nurses want for nurses week?
To know they’re safe, to know that in AMERICA that we can be afforded a shitty disposable gown to help protect ourselves from sitting in a virus. To not become so neurotic that our hands are completely raw from washing them so much. We want you to have enough respect for human life to not make stupid decisions. We want you to pay attention to science and not stupid conspiracy theories.
We don’t want to be called heroes, we don’t want shitty pizza, or signs. We want to be safe, well-staffed, and to not feel like every day weâre risking our own well-being.
Returning to the bedside has been the most amazing thing I’ve ever done, but after this I will go back to my job with an insurance company. While people that actually deserve your accolades keep fighting this.
So think this status is for attention, likes, call it fear mongering or whatever. But really it’s just so maybe for a second you’ll take this seriously. I have 33 days left in my contract to keep fighting with these people, and I honestly hope that things are headed back towards normal when I drive home. But with all of the small gatherings that pop up on social media that you’ve convinced yourself are fine, masses of people standing outside of a damn Dairy Queen, and seeing all the people in streets ignoring social distancing measures, it’s honestly unlikely.
The key difference between the US and Canada says David Fisman an epidemiologist at the University of Toronto:
âWe have a federal government that is supporting provincesâ responses….You have a chief executive who is directly undermining the public health response.â
Politics and politicians by definition, are always in the loop in a national emergency. Yesterday, we talked about how civic-minded politicians stand aside, letting the experts decide strategy. Then they help the experts by making the government work to support the strategy. And they then help with communicating priorities to citizens.
Our national response to the pandemic has been mostly incompetent. The wealthiest, most scientifically advanced country in history has been brought to its knees by a virus it knew was coming. As late as 2016, we had a coordinated national strategy to combat pandemics.
What can we do to insure we do a better job in the future?
This has been a hot topic in pundit land for the past few weeks. There are two threads of discussion: First, make the US military the leader in fighting pandemics. Alternatively, an âempoweredâ civilian agency or possibly, an empowered public-private partnership should direct the fight.
Letâs start by talking about how civilian government agencies might do a better job, if they were âempoweredâ and also funded. In 2005, GW Bush said: (emphasis by Wrongo)
âIf we wait for a pandemic to appear, it will be too late to prepare….we need medical personnel and adequate supplies of equipment…In a pandemic, everything from syringes to hospital beds, respirators masks and protective equipment would be in short supply….If a pandemic strikes, our country must have a surge capacity in place that will allow us to bring a new vaccine on line quickly and manufacture enough to immunize every American against the pandemic strain…â
Bush thought it would take $7 billion to build out his plan, plus annual appropriations thereafter. But that wasnât supported by Congress. Obama built on Bushâs plan, but his efforts also were not sustained by a Tea Party Congress. Trumpâs FY 2021 budget proposal reduces CDC funding by 16%. It was submitted just 11 days after the WHO declared the Coronavirus a public health emergency.
What should we be doing? First, we need to invest in ourselves, to break our reliance on offshore sources of PPE and pharmaceuticals. We saw that China stopped exporting PPE to the US, husbanding it for their own needs, and subsequently, showing a preference for shipping these goods to nations they perceived as friendlier.
Second, we need to empower an elite governmental team to combat a pandemic. The 2014 Ebola outbreak told us we needed a health security infrastructure. By 2016, America had coordinated an âall-government responseâ to the next pandemic. Laurie Garrett, a science journalist summed up the infrastructure created by Obama as a:
 â…special elite corps inside of the National Security Council, the Department of Homeland Security, Health and Human Services and CDC…an emergency capacity for surge drug approval at FDA⊠a lot of co-ordination with the states⊠a division that was doing nothing but training hospitals in infection control and appropriate epidemic responses⊠and…Study on how to surge hospital beds, how to surge physicians out of retirement…â
Sounds great, no? It needs to be rebuilt if we are to have effective control of our pandemic response.
The story of using the military also begins with Garrett. In September 2014, she briefed the Joint Chiefs of Staff on how the US military could help the countries affected by Ebola. She says that this was:
â…unprecedented in US history; weâd never mobilized US military for a medical response like that beforeâ.
âTo many lawmakers, the Defense Department is an attractive place to fund medical programs, partly because the defense budget is so large and enjoys support from both political parties, especially Republicans.â
Congress not only funds the NIH, it also provides $1 billion a year for DOD research labs looking into cures and treatments for cancers and other diseases.
Going forward, the military would like to see an increased focus on health as a part of national security. The debate is not a matter of either health security, or military security, it has to be both.
With a new administration, we need to think beyond stimulus packages, to fundamentally rethink what national security means. In the next pandemic, we canât be scrambling for enough face masks to protect our medical professionals and hoping that the military can save us.
Hummingbird with bee balm â 2014 photo by JH Cleary.Hummingbirds arrived on the fields of Wrong yesterday.
When was the last time that America got its act together when it needed to? Itâs been a very long time, probably not since WWII, or possibly, during our effort to immunize everyone, once there was a polio vaccine. Thatâs between 65 and 75 years ago.
We didnât get our act together during the Vietnam era. Weâre reminded of that with yesterdayâs 50-year anniversary of the Kent State shooting in 1970, when four unarmed college students were killed by soldiers of the Ohio National Guard. It was a small, but significant tragedy that became a part of a greater national tragedy, the Vietnam War.
We didnât get our act together after 9/11 when we attacked Afghanistan and Iraq. Like Vietnam, weâve been losing to people who wear sandals and fight with antique weapons, for 50+ years.
These arenât the only examples. New Orleans was whacked by Hurricane Katrina, but a week later, survivors were still sitting on roof tops surrounded by floating corpses. Even now, 15 years later, there is still evidence of damaged buildings in the cityâs 9th Ward.
We havenât gotten our act together to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. We’re currently seeing 1,750+ deaths per day. While the death toll is dropping in NYC and NJ, it’s rising pretty much everywhere else. Hereâs a chart showing the growth in cases, not deaths:
The dotted lines are a 7-day moving average, which allows us to see the trends more clearly. Politicians outside of the NY metropolitan area who are busy relaxing restrictions look like theyâre simply giving up and pretending itâs over, when it isnât. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is dropping requirements that residents wear masks. It is now a “strong suggestion”. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) wants residents to wear masks starting May 11, but will not enforce it.
Getting our act together has never been a feature of Americaâs Coronavirus fight. A depressing story in the New Yorker, âSeattleâs Leaders Let Scientists Take the Lead. New Yorkâs Did Notâ, sheds light on Seattleâs response vs. New York Cityâs. Although the initial coronavirus outbreaks emerged in both cities at roughly the same time, by the second week of April, Washington State had about one recorded fatality per 14,000 residents. New Yorkâs death rate was nearly six times higher.
The article describes how Seattleâs political leadership followed a tried and tested CDC playbook for epidemics, called the CDCâs Field Epidemiology Manual, which places public health and scientists at the core of the response. New Yorkâs mayor DiBlasio cut NYCâs public heath bureaucrats out of the loop. In early March, both NYCâs mayor and NYâs governor Cuomo were giving speeches de-emphasizing the risks of the pandemic, as the city was announcing its first cases.
This partially explains why Washington State has less than 2% of coronavirus cases in the US, while NY has 27%.
Weâre all familiar with the confusion of message and policy sown by Trump as the primary national spokesperson for the pandemic, a person notoriously hostile to science. His team includes Mike Pence, Dr. Fauci from the NIH, Dr. Deborah Brix from the State Department, and Jared Kushner, from the family. With contributions from Mike Pompeo and Steve Mnuchin.
The New Yorkerquotes Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security, at Johns Hopkins:
âWhen there are so many different figures, it can cause real confusion about whom to listen to, or whoâs in charge of what….And, if the response becomes political, itâs a disaster, because people wonât know if you are making recommendations based on science or politics…so thereâs the risk theyâll start to tune out.â
âAs President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of coronavirus cases and deaths over the next several weeks. The daily death toll will reach about 3,000 on June 1…nearly double from the current level of about 1,750.â
Math tells us that this will amount to about 81,000 more deaths by then, making the total somewhere around 150,000, assuming that the death rate remains on its current trend.
Should we expect that America will continue to flub itâs response to the pandemic? If so, Aaron Sorkin and Jeff Daniels will have to re-do the famous opening scene from “The Newsroom” where Daniels says “America is not the greatest country in the world anymore”:
Since we havenât gotten our act together for so long, a failure to control the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic will be depressingly similar to the tragedies of the past.
Failures of leadership, coupled with warring political factions who refuse to work together for a common good.
âJustice Department officials have spoken on conference calls with leaders of conservative groups, who have flagged individual cases as worthy of the departmentâs review. Some cabinet officials have signaled that they back the effort by participating in private calls with conservative allies, according to multiple people involved with the calls.â
The COVID-19 outbreak sparked many states and municipalities to order their citizens to stay at home and businesses to close in order to slow the spread of the illness, and to protect the public, but do the states have the authority to do it?
âTerms like isolation and quarantine have legal meaning, and relate to the governmentâs powers to act in the publicâs interest. Isolation is a targeted approach for individuals already diagnosed with a disease while quarantine restricts the movement of individuals or groups exposed to an illness, some of whom may not be sick.
Both strategies restrict the movement of individuals and are considered a severe deprivation of liberty.â
Last Friday, New Mexico Gov. Michelle Grisham (D) quarantined the town of Gallup, at the request of the city’s mayor, because the city is a COVID-19 hotspot. Grisham invoked New Mexico’s Riot Control Act. The order shuts down all roads to and from Gallup.
We can expect that this will lead to legal battles over whether governors can close individual American cities.
Last week, AG Barr issued a memorandum directing an effort to monitor state and local shutdown policies. Barr wrote: (emphasis by Wrongo)
 âWe do not want to unduly interfere with the important efforts of state and local officials to protect the public…But the Constitution is not suspended in times of crisis.â
John Adams helped pass the Alien and Sedition Acts of 1798, those four laws ârestricted the activities of foreign residents in the country and limited freedom of speech and of the pressâ.
Woodrow Wilson presided over the passage of the Espionage Act followed by the Sedition Act. People couldnât say anything: â…insulting or abusing the US government, the flag, the Constitution or the military.â Violators could receive 20 years in prison.
And now, Barr barges in. Since Wrongo isnât a lawyer, weâll have to leave the arguments to those who are qualified. But it seems that in the past, all the Constitution-breaking has been done by presidents, not governors. What we have is a federal vs. state powers question.
So far, the DOJ has intervened in only one case, a âreligious freedomâ complaint, a lawsuit by a Baptist church in Greenville, MS.
Conservatives are perfectly willing to be inconsistent. They are champions of “statesâ rights” until the state in question happens to lean blue. Speaking of inconsistency, remember that it was Trump who when asked why he wasn’t going to issue a nationwide ‘shelter in place’ order, said that it was up to the states.
The Trump administration delegated responsibility to the states with one hand, yet allows the DOJ to threaten governors with legal action. We also have religious conservatives who seem to forget the basis of Christianity, and are willing to put their neighbors at risk. Finally, there is a worrying increase in right-wing civil disobedience (while carrying weapons) that could easily ignite a real civil problem.
Once again, shopping is patriotism. Legitimate fear is unconstitutional. This isnât unprecedented. After 9/11, GW Bush told everyone to go out and shop. Shopping is apparently how Republicans show their love of country.
Taken together, we as a nation have truly lost our way.
Wake up America! Insist that by November, the states have prepared well enough that it is safe to vote in huge numbers to get these birds out of office.
To help you wake up, letâs listen to Bruce Springsteen and his wife, Patty Scialfa playing two songs from their home studio, âLand of Hope and Dreamsâ and âJersey Girlâ. This was part of the Jersey 4 Jersey benefit for the New Jersey Pandemic Relief Fund.
This is dedicated to daughter Kelly, a former Jersey girl who can use a pick-me-up. Remember, dreams will not be thwarted!
Those who read the Wrongologist in email can view the video here.
â…as many people as possible wear a nonmedical or homemade mask when leaving their homes.â
This week in Mercer PA, a protest against the Pennsylvania governorâs stay at home restrictions yielded this sign:
If this woman thinks wearing a mask is slavery, then she has no idea what slavery is. She, (along with the rest of us) arenât permitted to drive on the wrong side of the road, either. This isnât the time for people who are asked to stay at home and to wear a mask when outside to sing: âNobody knows the trouble I seeâ.
Speaking of masks and rules, how about Mike Pence:
Why didnât the Mayo Clinic say: “Thank you for visiting us, Mr. Vice President, but I’m afraid you can’t enter the clinic without a mask per our policy.” Mayo may do fantastic work, but they failed utterly by letting Pence go in unmasked.
Will Mitch pass aid to the states?
Where Wrongo lives, the nurses, fire fighters, police, and town workers are preponderantly Republican voters. Have they been screwed enough to realize theyâve been voting AGAINST their own self interests?
Biden canât run from this, no matter how many Dems hope he can:
Even the cows know opening meat processing plants without PPE is wrong:
Weâre entering a different kind of graduation season:
Remember when we had fifteen COVID-19 cases, and they were just going to be gone, like a miracle?
If you ask Trump, that’s where we are, plus a few orders of magnitude. All of the recent happy talk about reaching or being past the peak have omitted the detail that so far, “flattening the curve” isnât substantially reducing the number of cases, or deaths.
The theory was that once we âflattened the curveâ, we could ease up on social isolation, mask-wearing and get back to work. When we think about the downside of the curve, we think bell curves, with a sharp rise and fall from a high peak. As Wrongo said on April 20, that was unlikely to be the outcome, because it didnât happen like that in countries that started fighting the virus long before us. And thatâs how it seems to be working out. Here is where we are:
The chart tracks a 3-day average of cases, since that smooths out some of the big day-to-day variances. As of April 29, it seemed clear that we have reached a peak, but weâre not showing any real signs of a rapid decline. This means the COVID-19 curve could remain elevated for a long time.
And we should remember that 878,839 cases are still active.
Politicians are obsessed with âthe peak.â Are we at it? Are we past it? When will it come? Has it come? Now theyâve turned to communicating their plans for reopening the economy. That makes sense. Re-opening is becoming urgent, with more than 30 million Americans out of work, but it’s dismissive for politicians to say we’re past the worst of it “medically” while more people go to the ICU every day.
âBaker focused on hospitalizations and ICU admissions, saying, weâve basically been flat for 12 days. Weâre flat at a high level. But 12 days, 13 days counting today — youâre not going to find a lot of other places that just sit like this for 13 days.â
Former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb MD, an advisor to Baker, tweeted:
IHME (mentioned in the tweet) is a closely watched model from the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
What we do over the next few weeks will determine whether we get this right, or whether COVID remains a large ongoing threat. We need to understand the potential risks that come with a decision to reopen, and make plans to mitigate these risks as best we can. Some states, like Connecticut, are planning carefully.
If we look state by state, in about half of the country, the numbers of cases are still rising. In about another third of the country, there is a leveling off. Only in a minority of states are the numbers actually coming down on a daily basis. New York, Washington, Louisiana and Idaho have had reductions of more than 50% from their peaks in new infections.
According to STAT, there are several possible outcomes: Recurring small outbreaks, a monster wave of cases, or a persistent crisis. And no one knows which outcome is most likely. We should expect new infections to start rising again in states without much testing, but with large populations that opened early like Texas, Florida and Georgia.
We should also realize that in some states, cooking the books about new cases and deaths will happen. Newsweek reported data compiled by Florida medical examiners was no longer being reported by the state government. The official state data has not been updated in over a week.
Acting like weâre flattening the curve when we really donât know if we are, is likely to create a San Andreas-sized political earthquake if cases spike again.
But letâs try to get past all this, because itâs time for another Saturday Soother, when we stop checking Twitter, and think about spring.
Here on the fields of Wrong, the pear, plum and cherry trees have flowered, while the crab apples are soon to bloom. We have bluebirds nesting in both bluebird houses. Our weather remains cold and wet, so stay indoors and brew up a hot mug of Bengal Spice tea.
Now grab a socially distant chair and have a few minutes of fun with a song parody by the Opera Guy, Matthew Ciuffitelli. Hereâs his parody of âPhantom of the Operaâ, called âPhantom of the Quarantineâ. Wrongo promises you wonât be disappointed:
Those who read the Wrongologist in email can view the video here.
Happy May Day! Look on the bright side: Halloween is 184 days away, and everybody already has their masks.
Joe Biden is the likely Democratic presidential nominee, and heâs carrying the hopes of many Americans that the Trump era will be just a single term. There are many hurdles for Biden to overcome on his way to winning the presidency, and a new one has emerged from an old story.
Tara Reade, a former Biden aide has accused him of sexually assaulting her in 1993. That story had been reported many times without really touching Biden politically, largely because the media was skeptical of Readeâs story when she came forward initially.
Recently, she changed her story from a creepy sexual harassment to sexual assault. And we now find out that she may have told others of the more serious allegation 25 years ago. That puts her story in a very different light.
Business Insider reported that two sources came forward to corroborate details about Reade’s new claims. One, a former neighbor of Reade’s, says that Reade disclosed corroborating details to her about the alleged assault in the mid-1990s, possibly one-to-two years after it happened.
Dealing with this sort of accusation when weâre focused on the political rather than the legal consequences, is tricky. People point to the Brett Kavanaugh nomination hearing and say that Kavanaugh and Biden are in the same boat. The WaPo says that at the time, Biden insisted that Christine Blasey Ford, who accused Kavanaugh of sexual assault:
â…should be given the benefit of the doubt…for a woman to come forward in the glaring lights of focus, nationally, youâve got to start off with the presumption that at least the essence of what sheâs talking about is real, whether or not she forgets facts.â
The HuffPo reports that Tarana Burke, a founder of the Me Too movement in 2007, thinks that Readeâs accusations against Biden are being felt differently because of the stakes in the 2020 election, which will feature two men in powerful positions who have both been accused of sexual assault.
Burke has suggested that Biden could be both âaccountable and electableâ for Democrats in 2020:
âThe defense of Joe Biden shouldnât rest on whether or not heâs a âgood guyâ or âour only hope.â Instead, he could demonstrate what it looks like to be both accountable and electable…â
Standards for evaluating evidence in the context of a job interview should be different than standards for evaluating evidence in a legal proceeding, or in a criminal trial.
Nobody has a right to become president of the US, or to be on the Supreme Court. If you think thereâs a reasonable chance that Readeâs sexual assault allegation is true, itâs perfectly appropriate to take your estimate of that probability into account when deciding whether to support Biden or not.
Wrongo thinks that it would be better for the country if Biden replaces Trump. Thatâs true for Wrongo even if he assumes Readeâs allegation is 100% accurate.
So what should Biden do? He has to put this behind him. He should say he believes her, even if he has no memory of the event. And he should earnestly apologize.
Fess up and move on.
Republicans know that dividing the left radically improves their chances in November. They can see how easily the Demsâ laudable virtue of âbelieve all womenâ could be weaponized.
One thing an apology will do is make it easier for Biden to select a woman VP, as he has promised to do. Bidenâs shaky past behavior around women will also be a part of the oppositionâs message in the fall. He has worked to overcome some of that over the years by co-sponsoring Clintonâs Violence Against Woman Act. He has improved his views on both abortion and the Hyde Amendment, and he’s sort of apologized to Anita Hill.
Whichever woman Biden chooses will be forced to answer questions (probably endlessly) about Bidenâs treatment of women, including the allegations of assault by Tara Reade. His VP choice may become the leader of the Democratic Party in four years, and the only way to inoculate the VP nominee against this is a full Biden apology.
Will a heartfelt apology hurt Biden? Certainly with some progressive voters. But even those whose only issue is a principled stand against sexual assault, will have to choose between Biden and Trump. If they do so based only on which man has sexually assaulted fewer women, itâs likely that Biden would be their choice.
This isnât the choice Wrongo had hoped for, but itâs the choice we have.
Early snow at Schwabacher Landing, Grand Teton NP, WY â October 2019 photo by travlonghorns
The shit show visited on America by Republican nihilists must end. Here are three of the latest examples.
First, Bloomberg reports that Trump says he wonât allow federal aid for states facing budget deficits caused by the Coronavirus unless they take action against their sanctuary cities: (brackets by Wrongo)
âWe would want certain things…as part of a deal with House Democrats to aid states, [Trump] he said at a White House event on Tuesday…including sanctuary city adjustments, because we have so many people in sanctuary cities.â
Yes, Trump wants to hold Democratic states and cities hostage unless they end their sanctuary designations. He has previously tried to cut off their federal funding unless they change their pro-immigrant policies, and he thinks now he has some leverage.
Second, Mitch McConnell and industry lobbying groups want to make immunity from COVID-19 lawsuits a condition for state aid. In a Monday interview on Fox News Radio, McConnell said he considers liability protections for companies a non-negotiable demand for the next coronavirus stimulus legislation:
 âThatâs going to be my red line….Trial lawyers are sharpening their pencils to come after healthcare providers and businesses, arguing that somehow the decision they made with regard to reopening adversely affected the health of someone else.â
McConnell is arguing that companies should have the right to be negligent, and suffer no consequences for negligence that kills their staff.
As some states begin opening their economies, lobbyists say retailers, manufacturers, restaurants and other businesses struggling to start back up need temporary limits on legal liability. The lobbyists want to give companies more protection against lawsuits by customers or employees who contract the virus and accuse the business of being the source of the infection.
Think about this: Workmenâs compensation takes care of what might happen to an employee, and does so at ridiculously low rates, even for death benefits. So this means that the primary corporate liability issue is over employees who bring the virus home from work and infect family members. Under the new legislation, family members would be precluded from filing a suit against the employer.
What about corporate liability for retail customers? Would retailers be held harmless if people getting sick are traceable to their store? There is a tension between companies having confidence to reopen, and employees and customers having confidence that they will be protected from unsafe practices that raise their chance of infection.
Lobbyists and Republicans want permanent changes to the business liability laws, while Trump is looking at how they could create some of those shields either via regulation, or executive order. But McConnell wants permanent legislation. His leverage is to make it a part of the next stimulus package.
“If you’re an employer and you offer to bring your employee back to work and they decide not to, that’s a voluntary quit,” Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) said Friday. “Therefore, they would not be eligible for the unemployment money.”
The only exception for workers getting unemployment after not returning to work is if they are ill with the virus or taking care of a family member who has the disease. The situation is similar for workers in Texas, where Gov. Greg Abbott (R) on Monday gave the go-ahead for retail stores, restaurants, movie theaters and malls to reopen on Friday.
âAccording to the Texas Workforce Commission, to qualify for unemployment benefits in the state, a worker must be âwilling and able to work all the days and hours required for the type of work you are seeking…..employees who choose not to return to work will become ineligible for unemployment benefits.â
The only solution to these anti-worker policies is re-unionization of workers in nearly every industry, and these Republican efforts during the pandemic may energize that unionization.
Mitch wants to protect employers. Trump says the whole problem is Chinaâs fault.
