The Wrongologist – Page 45 – Geopolitics, Power and Political Economy

Biden’s Excellent Middle East Adventure

The Daily Escape:

Early morning, Garden of the Gods, Colorado Springs, CO – July 2022 photo by Steve Volke

In an op-ed in the WaPo on July 9, Biden focused on security and said his administration had “reversed the blank-check policy we inherited” for Saudi Arabia:

“From the start, my aim was to reorient — but not rupture — relations with a country that’s been a strategic partner for 80 years,”

Biden started his trip in Israel, and according to al-Monitor, his visit to Israel is mostly about Iran:

“The visit is expected to take US-Israel defense cooperation to a whole new level with an eye toward Iran and a plan B in case the nuclear talks collapse, or as a deterrent posture, even if they do.”

This signals to Wrongo that Biden has very low expectations that a return to the Iran Nuclear Deal is possible. It’s also probable that Biden doesn’t want the Nuclear Deal to be another political football in the 2022 mid-terms. We also learned this week that Iran will be supplying drones to the Russians, ostensibly to use in Ukraine, another reason to further isolate Iran rather than close the Nuclear Deal.

Biden will also try to create a new initiative tying Saudi Arabia into an eventual participation in the Abraham Accords. He’s also seeking an agreement with the Saudis that would permit Israeli commercial jets to fly over Saudi airspace.

Biden’s visit comes when Israel is holding its fifth election in under four years in November after the government headed by PM Naftali Bennett collapsed last month. The previous four elections were largely referendums on Netanyahu’s fitness to serve as PM while under indictment for corruption. Of note, former Prime Minister (and accused felon) Netanyahu only got a 15 minute audience with Biden on Thursday.

Biden visits East Jerusalem and the West Bank today, meeting with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. His reception will be frosty. Biden has angered Palestinians when he said on Wednesday that a two-state solution was not feasible “in the near term”, although he walked that back later in the visit. Biden will also announce a $100 million grant to six hospitals in East Jerusalem.

Later on Friday, Biden touches down in Saudi Arabia, the country he said was a “pariah.” According to Bloomberg, this visit follows months of shuttle diplomacy that attempted to repair the alliance.

A pressing decision for Biden this week may be choosing an appropriate greeting for the Saudi leader he said he would snub. And his decision is more complicated after Biden had an extended handshake with Netanyahu, and then couldn’t seem to stop doing the same with other Israeli officials.

Bloomberg says that Biden wasn’t supposed to shake hands with any foreign leaders during his Middle East trip, largely as a Covid precaution. That would also have helped avoid a handshake with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. Now a handshake with the pariah in chief seems certain to happen.

The Saudi visit isn’t about American influence. Rather, it highlights America’s need to try to control its costs of energy. The “get” for Biden is whether Saudi Arabia will again be a swing producer of oil when American needs it. But the Saudis and the UAE are the only members of the OPEC with significant unused output. Together they have a buffer of about 3 million barrels a day, or about 3% of global oil output. That’s roughly equivalent to the amount of Russian oil that is being kept off the market by sanctions.

This is what Biden is bargaining for. Of course, he could cut a deal with Iran or Venezuela, but that would cause serious political fallout at home.

As Wrongo has said, world crude production and refining output are struggling to keep pace with the post-pandemic rebound in demand. It is clear that the price of gasoline remains a source of political peril for Biden heading to mid-term elections. So we’ll see how far Biden will bend to get an oil deal done, even though it won’t do much for gas prices.

The other big thing that may come from meeting the Saudis would be to weld Saudi Arabia into the anti-Iran Middle East military alliance that Israel wants. To facilitate this, the Biden administration is considering lifting its ban on selling offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia.

That’s a huge turnaround. Just days after taking the presidential oath, Biden announced the US planned to cut off arms sales for Saudi Arabia’s operations in Yemen, and reverse the decision to designate the Iranian-backed Houthis as a terrorist organization.

Eighteen months later, there’s a cease-fire in Yemen, an underreported diplomatic victory for Biden. It’s proving more durable than anyone thought, and the US is again thinking about selling the Saudis more weapons.

Whatever the outcome of Biden’s trip, the US remains overcommitted in the ME, so the quagmire will continue.

Right-Wing Lobbying Group Designated a Church by IRS

The Daily Escape:

Sunrise, high tide, Sea Street beach, East Dennis, MA – July 2022 photo by Bob Amaral Photography

The fallout from the Trump years continues. On Monday, ProPublica reported that the IRS had decided that the Family Research Council (FRC), a Right-Wing political lobbying group, qualifies as a church for tax purposes:

“The Family Research Council’s multimillion-dollar headquarters sit on G Street in Washington, DC, just steps from the US Capitol and the White House, a spot ideally situated for its work as a right-wing policy think tank and political pressure group.”

The FRC is now a church, thanks to the IRS and its Commissioner, Charles Rettig. You can be forgiven for not remembering that Trump appointed Rettig to be Commissioner of the IRS in 2018. He got the job by writing a 2016 op-ed saying Trump didn’t have to release his tax returns, despite every major presidential candidate having done so since Nixon.

ProPublica noted that the FRC says on its website that it is a:

“…nonprofit research and educational organization dedicated to articulating and advancing a family-centered philosophy of public life. In addition to providing policy research and analysis….[the] FRC seeks to inform the news media, the academic community, business leaders, and the general public about family issues that affect the nation from a biblical worldview.”

Now that the IRS has blessed FRC as a church, it is no longer required to file a public tax return, (known as a Form 990), which reveals key salaries, the names of board members and related organizations, large payments and/or grants by the organization.

And unlike with charities, IRS investigators can’t initiate an audit on a church unless a high-level Treasury Department official has approved the investigation.

Right Wing Watch, an organization that monitors the activities and rhetoric of right-wing activists and organizations reported on the ties between FRC and Trump’s Jan. 6 effort to overturn the presidential election:

“The Family Research Council…was deeply involved in…Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election—a fact made all the more apparent by revelations during the June 23 public hearing of the House select committee investigating the conspiracy that led to the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the US Capitol.”

You probably remember the head of the FRC, Tony Perkins (not the deceased actor) by some of his grandstanding in the culture wars:

In 2005, Perkins was against disconnecting life support for Terri Schiavo, a woman who had been in a “persistent vegetative state” for a number of years.
In 2008, Perkins called the passage of California Proposition 8 (which prohibited same sex marriage in the state) “more important than the presidential election”.
In 2018, Perkins said, regarding Trump’s adulterous past, he should be given a “Mulligan“, because Trump was “providing the leadership we need at this time…”

In 2010, The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) designated the FRC as a hate group. From the SPLC:

“Part of FRC’s strategy is to pound home the false claim that LGBTQ people are more likely to sexually abuse children than heterosexual people. The American Psychological Association, among others, however, has concluded that “homosexual men are not more likely to sexually abuse children than heterosexual men are.”

Designating the FRC as a church for tax purposes is part of a disturbing trend. The WaPo reported in 2020 about the growing list of religious groups seeking church status from the IRS.

The potential cost of becoming a church is that the organization can no longer conduct political operations on behalf of politicians or lobby on legislation. In practice, that is simple to get around. The FRC now has its church arm alongside a separate lobbying arm called Family Research Council Action.

The arms separate their messaging on two websites, with the FRC hosting issues-based content supporting its Christian worldview while the Family Research Council Action explicitly endorses candidates. Both arms are registered at the same address and both share all five of the part-time employees the FRC lists on its tax form, including Tony Perkins.

These “churches” sure have figured out how to run a scam on the US government.

It’s past time for the IRS to end this charade and tax churches. Biden should fire IRS Commissioner Rettig, who was also the guy in charge when the IRS politically targeted Trump “enemies” James Comey and Andrew McCabe for invasive tax audits.

These people and their “churches” are simply Republicans with a talent for abusing the bible and raising obscene amounts of money. Thomas Jefferson said it best:

“In every country and in every age, the priest has been hostile to liberty. He is always in alliance with the despot, abetting his abuses in return for protection to his own.”

Monday Wake Up Call – July 11, 2022

The Daily Escape:

Penstemon and Paintbrush, with Mt. St. Helens in background – June 2022 photo by Edwin Buske Photography

There are two big economic issues that the media and pundits say will influence the 2022 mid-terms: inflation, and the possibility of a recession.

Let’s start with the scare of a looming recession. Most Americans have been told that a recession occurs when real GDP contracts for two consecutive quarters. Sounds easy to figure out, but this definition wasn’t met in two out of the last three recessions. Some facts: The 2020 downturn lasted just two months, not two quarters. And during the 2001 recession, real GDP didn’t contract for two quarters in a row either.

The difference is that recessions are determined not by pundits but by a group of economists at the National Bureau of Economics (NBER), and they use several measures beyond GDP to make it official. Here’s how they explain it:

“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, normally visible in production, employment, and other indicators…”

They go on to say that:

“There is no fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are weighted in our decisions.”

In recent decades, the two measures that have had the most weight are real personal income and non-farm payroll employment. So, despite what you’re hearing from pundits about GDP, it basically boils down to income and employment. If income and employment turn south, there’s a good chance economic output will be lower.

But after two quarters of 2022, while output is slowing, income and the labor market are both still solid. The WSJ quotes Robert Gordon a Northwestern University economics professor and member of the NBER’s committee that decides on recessions:

“We are going to have a very unusual conflict between the employment numbers and the output numbers for a while…”

The US economy added 1.6 million jobs in the first quarter, and another 1.1 million jobs in the second quarter. Those numbers certainly don’t look recessionary, despite what the media is trying to tell us. U6, which is a measure of underemployment declined -0.4% to 6.7%. This is a new all-time low for U6, which has been tracked since 1994.

It may seem like splitting hairs to talk about the definition of a recession. But we need to be prepared for the coming political scenario where some argue we’re in a recession while others will refute that idea vigorously.

In this mid-term season, things are going to get weird.

Let’s turn to the scourge of inflation. It is among the first stories on the local news every night, but you might not know that as Paul Krugman says:

“The wholesale price of gasoline has fallen about 80 cents a gallon since its peak a month ago. Only a little of this plunge has been passed on to consumers so far, but over the weeks ahead we’re likely to see a broad decline in prices at the pump….what are the odds that falling gas prices will get even a small fraction of the media coverage devoted to rising prices?”

That seems to point to profit taking by the petroleum corporate interests. Have you noticed how much profit they have made lately? ExxonMobil plans to buy back $30 billion of stock this year with the extra money that we all paid at the pump.

Last Friday, PBS talked about a looming wage-price spiral, a neoliberal concept that says rising wages drive prices. But the annualized rate of wage growth, comparing the last three months (April, May, June) with the prior three months (January, February, March), was 4.3%,down from a previous annualized rate of 6.1%.

This is big since the Fed’s plans for aggressive interest rate hikes is based on its concern about a 1970s-type wage-price spiral. It is impossible to have a wage-price spiral when wage growth is slowing. The current 4.3% wage growth is less than one percent higher than the 3.4% rate in 2019 when inflation was comfortably below the Fed’s 2.0% target.

Retailers are now stuffed to the gills with merchandise. What happened was that all of the product that was stranded at sea has finally reached store shelves. They will hold massive sales this fall to get rid of it, and that will lower prices.

The lockdowns in China are mostly over, last year’s fiscal stimulus has worked its way through the economy, and the Fed has begun sharply raising interest rates.

Krugman feels that as the economy weakens, the prospect for sustained inflation is receding.

Time to wake up America, don’t get demagogued by the scary economic terms that the politicians will throw at you. To help you wake up, let’s listen to Barenaked Ladies – “If I Had a Million Dollars” Live in Michigan in 2007:

Sunday Cartoon Blogging – July 10, 2022

Continue reading Sunday Cartoon Blogging – July 10, 2022

Saturday Soother – July 9, 2022

The Daily Escape:

Abandoned homestead, Sanpete County, UT – photo by Jon Hafen Photography

Wrongo hates writing about dysfunction among Democrats, but lately, they seem to be all too willing to assemble the circular firing squad. And they’re doing it at a time, as we said yesterday, that the Dems seem to be getting back in the mid-terms race.

Wrongo heard an NPR reporter asking if Democrats were angry with Biden because he wasn’t doing more after the Dobbs decision. The point was that many Dems seem to think there’s a magical way of reinstating the Constitutional right to abortion when Democrats have at best, barely nominal control of Congress. Here are some media comments:

The WaPo reported that “some Democrats” think Biden “risks a dangerous failure to meet the moment” and quoted a Democratic consultant lamenting Biden’s “leadership vacuum.”
Politico reported that “Democrats have grown increasingly frustrated at what they perceive has been the White House’s lack of urgency” and “Biden’s seeming lack of fire.”
CNN reported: “Top Democrats complain the president isn’t acting with … the urgency the moment demands.” Anonymous Democratic lawmakers called the White House “rudderless,” with “no fight.”

Is it time to remind Democrats that the radical change in the Supreme Court was a self-inflicted wound? It was Democrats who failed to turnout in Obama-strength numbers in 2016 for an admittedly weaker candidate, Hillary Clinton.

Also, by not electing a few more Dems to the Senate in 2020, Democrats gave their majority over to Manchin and Sinema, and by extension, gave Republicans more control than they had earned.

As Dana Milbank said in the WaPo:

“The fratricide is…stoked by the press, which likes a “Dems-in-disarray” story and would love a presidential primary. Democrats are habitually more self-critical than their Republican counterparts…. And there’s genuine frustration that more can’t get done.

But that’s the fault of Joe Manchin, not Joe Biden — and of a broken political system that protects minority rule. What’s depressing Biden’s (and therefore Democrats’) poll numbers isn’t alleged timidity…but inflation and gas prices.”

One issue that is particularly galling to Wrongo is that many Dems want Biden to do more about Britney Griner, a WNBA basketball player who was arrested in Russia on a drug possession charge. She took vape vials containing cannabis to Russia, and was arrested when she tried to leave the country with them. She has now pleaded guilty to the charges.

While Wrongo and all Americans can feel sorry for her plight, her decision-making was terrible. As a Black lesbian American celebrity athlete, she became a perfect target for the Kremlin. Now she’s placed the US government in a difficult position, and many Democrats are pushing on Biden to do something. But his calculation has to be based on geopolitics. Her decisions aren’t Biden’s fault.

Once again, we’re seeing that Democrats are a herd of cats and Republicans are a herd of cattle. Republicans are satisfied to follow the bell cow, while Dems want to change the world to reflect their individual needs on the first day we get in power.

Republicans worked 50 years to achieve what they have today. They never gave up. Democrats always look for a shortcut to power, and then are angry when that door isn’t opened immediately. All we do is complain.

It’s fair for Democrats to ask whether they should re-nominate an 82-year-old man for the 2024 presidential election. But right now, we need to bear down and add to our Senate majority in November.

Holding on to the House isn’t a bad idea either.

Enough politics, it’s time for our Saturday Soother, those few moments stolen from our overly-scheduled lives when we can prepare ourselves for the trouble to come. If you are feeling exhausted by the news and the lack of action on the part of politicians, it’s understandable. But right now, we must recharge our batteries and throw ourselves back into the fray on Monday.

We’re back on the Fields of Wrong from 10 days in the south, including a stop on July 4 at Monticello. The fourth is also the date of Jefferson’s death, in 1826, 50 years after the Declaration of Independence. Here’s a photo of Jefferson’s gardens and his view to the east in Virginia. The white building is the textile workshop:

July 2022 iPhone photo by Wrongo

To help you prepare for what’s coming, listen to Rossini’s Overture to “La Gazza Ladra” (“The Thieving Magpie”). Rossini hadn’t finished the overture to the piece on time, so the day before the premiere, the conductor locked him in a room at the top of La Scala with orders to complete it. He was guarded by four stagehands whose job was to toss each completed page out the window to a copyist below. The opera was first performed in May, 1817. Here, it’s performed in 2012 by the Mannheim Philharmonic, a youth orchestra conducted by Boian Videnoff. You should watch just to see Videnoff’s conducting style:

Finally, A Culture War Dems Can Win

The Daily Escape:

Irises on the beach, OR – June 2022 photo by Edwin Buske Photography

Our visit to Asheville, NC for a family wedding was a great success. Now we return to a world where love doesn’t conquer all.

Much has been written about whether the Democrats will be helped in the mid-term elections by the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overturning Roe. Recent polls show a shift in attitude away from Republicans in Congressional races. Simon Rosenberg of NDN, a Washington think tank, sees a big change in political polling since Dobbs. Rosenberg tweeted:

These data suggest voters have swung 3-5 points towards Democrats in recent weeks. Five of the nine polls show meaningful movement toward the Democrats since their last poll.

And that polling shift seems to have carried over to the Senate. New polling from Future Majority (FM) finds a far better Senate landscape for Democrats. Here are a few data points from FM:

AZ – Sen. Mark Kelly leads Masters, 48-39, Lamon 47-41. He trailed a generic Republican 43-45 in March.
GA – Sen. Ralph Warnock leads Walker 48-44.  He trailed 48-49 in March.
NH – Sen. Maggie Hassan leads Bolduc 49-40.  They didn’t poll NH in March.
NV – Sen. Cortez Masto leads Laxalt 46-43.  She trailed Laxalt 43-45 in March.

Most important, FM found that enthusiasm to vote among Democrats has overtaken Republican enthusiasm. After trailing Republican motivation throughout most of 2022, now 92% of Democrats say they are extremely motivated to vote in November, while 89% of Republican voters say they are extremely motivated to vote. This is a seven-point boost in Democrats’ 85% enthusiasm in March.

Also, they found that reproductive freedom is a top priority for Democrat voters in November: 77% of Democrats and 45% of Independents identify the SCOTUS decision to overturn Roe as a top priority in their vote. It’s the top issue for Democrats and the 2nd most important issue to Independents.

If the FM polls are accurate, Democrats leading in the generic ballot is a game-changer for the 2022 mid-terms. The election is now competitive. It’s no longer a Republican wave election. But the election isn’t being held today, it’s four months away. And these polls, along with all the others, are fallible. But the times make it both right and important for Dems and Independents to be energized.

We need to hammer home that America had a coup against our government led by the last Republican president. And this year, we’ve seen the Republican-dominated Supreme Court rule against the majority view of the country on guns, abortion, religion and climate change.

It isn’t a stretch to say that the Court’s Conservative majority may side with Republicans when their partisans try to decide the next few elections for us. After years of change and accelerating division, the last few months have made it perfectly clear just what Republicans do when they get political power.

One big question in November is if the under-30 voters who helped power the Democrats’ wins in 2020 will show up in 2022. David Hogg, one of the Parkland shooting survivors who has become a political activist, tweeted at his fellow Gen Z cohort:

“I understand how tone deaf it sounds to say we need to keep voting but it’s important to remember a couple things-

1.) It’s one day every 2 years 2.) It’s a tool we have in our tool box to create change- we can’t afford to not use every tool we have 3.) If it didn’t change anything they wouldn’t be trying so hard to stop us

6.) When hardcore conservatives didn’t like the Republican Party in the 1960-70s their solution wasn’t to stop voting it was the opposite. It was voting WAY more in primaries and growing the power of their vote. They turned out every election for decades and that brought us here.

7.) The solution is NOT to stop voting which would literally be the worst possible thing we could do. It will ensure the only people who stay in power are Dems who refuse to abolish the filibuster and republicans. We need to grow our lead in the senate and keep the house.

8.) Power is grown over decades of voting for the best candidates in primaries and then blue no matter who. It should be obvious but the solution to growing our power isn’t to diminish it by not voting. It’s to vote for the best candidate and hold them accountable.’

Hogg gets it.

The abortion war should unite Democrats, while dividing Independents and Republicans, giving Dems an opening, if they know how to use it.

Democrats finally have a culture war they can win.

Saturday Soother, Independence Weekend – July 2, 2022

The Daily Escape:

Street Art, Riverview Station, Asheville, NC – July 1, 2022 iPhone photo by Wrongo

What is the essence of America? Finding and maintaining that perfect, delicate balance between freedom “to” and freedom “from” –Marilyn Vos Savant

Our stay in North Carolina has been grand, and it’s nearing an end since today is our grandson Conor’s wedding. We will soon head north, spending July 4 at Monticello, Jefferson’s home. The anniversary of our independence is also the day that Jefferson died. In a coincidence, both John Adams and Thomas Jefferson died on the same day, July 4, 1826. That was the 50^th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration. We’re really looking forward to spending Independence Day on Jefferson’s turf.

Wrongo has mentioned “The Cause, The American Revolution and its Discontents, 1773-1783” a book by Joseph Ellis about how the founders had to create a blurry vision of the revolution because colonists didn’t think of themselves as Americans. They had suspicions of others in different colonies, and they had different economic goals. So the founders described their fight for independence as “The Cause”, an ambiguous term that covered diverse ideas and multiple viewpoints. It succeeded in unifying them against the British.

Now, 246 years after our revolution started, it seems that nothing will ever unite us again. Facts are fungible, so the truth is as well. Most Americans are apathetic when it comes to politics because they like what they’ve got, and they’re unwilling to sacrifice.

This has led us to lose control of our politics and our courts. Control is now held by a minority, mostly by those at the top, supported by some of the people in the middle, and enabled by the apathy of most of the rest of us.

Worse, those in the minority are extremists. They have exploited the seams and imperfections in our system to impose a return to the social mores and politics of an earlier time on the rest of us. The best example of this is the string of far-Right decisions handed down recently by the Supreme (Extreme) Court. From Slate’s Mark Joseph Stern:

“Consider the issues that SCOTUS has resolved this term—the first full term with a 6–3 conservative supermajority. The constitutional right to abortion: gone. States’ ability to limit guns in public: gone. Tribal sovereignty against state intrusion: gone. Effective constraints around separation of church and state: gone. The bar on prayer in public schools: gone. Effective enforcement of Miranda warnings: gone. The ability to sue violent border agents: gone. The Environmental Protection Agency’s authority to regulate greenhouse gases at power plants: gone. Vast areas of the law, established over the course of decades, washed away by a court over a few months.”

In a single term, the Extreme Court’s reactionary majority has overturned two centuries of precedent for the American social order. They have made a mockery of judicial restraint. From Robert Hubbell:

“It is no longer “calling balls and strikes” but is…converting the game of baseball into the new sport of Calvinball, in which players make up the rules as they go along. To say the least, these changes are partisan and revolutionary.”

It’s clear that they want to go still further, and given today’s politics, there’s zero risk of the other branches of government overriding their decisions.

So, on this Saturday of Fourth of July weekend, let’s hit pause for a few days before taking on the mid-term roller coaster we’ll experience in the second half of the year. Let’s take these extra days to reflect on the Extreme Court’s rulings. Let’s contemplate how our founders were able to weave a message that united many factions against a common enemy.

It’s very clear that at this point, our common enemy is the partisan power of a partisan minority.

This weekend is our opportunity to set a battle plan against that common enemy, meaning a plan to maintain control of Congress for the next two years. We can then use that power to dilute the power of a reactionary Court that has taken control of many of the duties of the other branches of government.

Real power in this country no longer lies in the People. It resides at the Supreme Court.

To help you reflect on how we take back control, let’s listen to 1963’s “Give Me Your Tired” by Irving Berlin, performed by the Mormon Tabernacle Choir. Berlin set music to the words inscribed on the Statue of Liberty. It comes from his 1949 Broadway musical Miss Liberty:

The words are by Emma Lazarus (1849-87) from her 1883 poem The New Colossus:

Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me.
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!

More Rights May Be Flushed By The Supremes

The Daily Escape:

Denali from Byers Lake, AK – June 2022 photo by Todd Salat

In his concurring opinion to the decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, that dismantled Roe, Justice Thomas basically begged Red states to send the Court more culture war cases that they could dismantle.

The Houston Chronicle reports that Texas GOP AG Ken Paxton is ready to do just that:

“Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton last week seemingly expressed support for the Supreme Court potentially overturning past rulings on cases involving the LGBTQ community following the downfall of Roe v. Wade on Friday.”

Paxton, in an interview, said he would support the Supreme Court revisiting the cases mentioned in Thomas’ concurring opinion. Here are the decisions Thomas would like a shot at overturning:

He questioned a number of earlier Court rulings, including Obergefell v. Hodges, which established the right of same-sex couples to marry, and Lawrence vs. Texas—a 2003 decision in which the court ruled against the state of Texas regarding its 1973 law criminalizing the act of sodomy.

Thomas also mentioned Griswold v. Connecticut, which established the right of married couples to use contraception without government interference:

“In future cases, we should reconsider all of this Court’s substantive due process precedents, including Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergefell….We have a duty to ‘correct the error’ regarding these established in those precedents.”

For those who don’t fully understand legal shorthand, the judicial theory Thomas is pursuing is that these issues should be in the hands of state legislatures, and not be decided by the courts.

Conservatives in other states have also expressed support for Thomas’s opinion, including Utah Senate President Stuart Adams, who said he would support the Supreme Court reconsidering same-sex marriage. Utah’s constitutional ban on same-sex unions still exists and could be reinstated if the high court were to overturn its earlier decision.

We shouldn’t forget that Obergefell was a 5-4 decision. Lawrence v. Texas was also a 5-4 decision. Since these cases were decided, the Court has moved three seats to the right. We should expect that both of these decisions will be overturned, assuming some state AG sends a case up to the Supremes.

After all, the Court’s Conservatives haven’t gotten more liberal on these issues in the last 10-15 years.

Some more history: Griswold v, Connecticut was decided 7-2, Loving v. Virginia was unanimous; and Brown v. Board of Education was unanimous. All of that said, while history shows that very few 5-4 decisions get overturned, in this time of Conservative Justice grievance, that’s not the way to bet. Even if those cases had been 6-3, 7-2 or 8-1, it wouldn’t matter to the current Justices on the Court.

Pundits are talking as if they would be shocked if the Court reverses Obergefell and Lawrence. That’s because they’re comforted that Thomas’s revolutionary concurrence wasn’t joined by other Justices. But all of them voted to end Roe, and Alito said:

“…abortion is not mentioned anywhere in the Constitution. Therefore, there is no right to an abortion.”

We should also remember that the Court used nearly word for word, the failed Robert Bork’s reasoning why there isn’t a Constitutional right to privacy in Griswold v. Connecticut.

If there’s no right to privacy because the Constitution does not explicitly state there is such a right, then according to the Court’s Conservative 6, all of the rest of our privacy rights are in play. That means nearly nothing in the Fourth Amendment may remain, because you have no right to privacy in your home or in your vehicle.

But if you bet that the Court’s Conservative majority will somehow find that the founders explicitly wanted corporations to have a right to privacy, you’ll earn some folding money.

The naked desire by the Furious Five to achieve their ideological goals as quickly as possible is most likely, uncontrollable. Chief Justice Roberts is being increasingly sidelined because he wants to (at least) try to hide their ideological agenda. But the Furious Five doesn’t have any interest in hiding what they’re doing.

No more calling “balls and strikes” as Roberts said during his 2005 Senate confirmation hearing.

In closing, the music world has reacted strongly to the Supreme Court ruling on abortion. NPR has a nice roundup of what artists are saying and doing in response. Check it out if you have time.

Wednesday Wake Up Call – June 29, 2022

The Daily Escape:

Asheville morning, June 28, 2022 – iPhone photo by Wrongo. The log house we’re renting this week is at 4,000’ above sea level.

Wake up calls by the Wrongologist rarely happen on Wednesdays, but since the Roberts Court dismantled the line between church and state in public education with Justice Gorsuch’s decision in Kennedy v Bremerton School District, on Monday, it seems right.

Voting 6-3, the Court declared that an Oregon public high school football coach’s post-game prayer sessions with students were Constitutional, whether the students wanted them or not. That made Monday part of a pretty good run for American theocracy:

“The decision came less than a week after the court ruled, by the same vote, that Maine could not exclude religious schools from a state tuition program.”

The line between church and state is being erased before our eyes. Gorsuch, cherry-picking the facts of the case, wrote that football coach Kennedy had sought only to offer a brief, silent and solitary prayer:

“Respect for religious expressions is indispensable to life in a free and diverse republic — whether those expressions take place in a sanctuary or on a field, and whether they manifest through the spoken word or a bowed head…”

Justice Sotomayor responded that the public nature of his prayers and his stature as a leader and role model meant that students felt forced to participate, whatever their religion and whether they wanted to or not. She gave a different account of the facts, taking account of a longer time period:

“Kennedy consistently invited others to join his prayers and for years led student-athletes in prayer…”

In an unusual move, Sotomayor’s dissent included photographs showing Mr. Kennedy kneeling with players, which debunked Gorsuch’s selective use of facts.

Do you really think that this decision would have been the same if those prayers had been offered by a Muslim?

In the process of ruling for Mr. Kennedy, the majority overturned a major precedent on the First Amendment’s establishment clause, Lemon v. Kurtzman. That ruling was decided by an 8-0 vote under Republican Chief Justice Warren Burger. As an aside, John Dean (of Watergate fame) has said that during the Nixon administration, Burger threatened to resign from the Court if Nixon nominated a woman to it.

It came to be known as the Lemon test, which required courts to consider whether the challenged government practice had a secular purpose, whether its primary effect is to advance or inhibit religion, and whether it fosters excessive government entanglement with religion.

Sotomayor acknowledged that while the Lemon test had been frequently criticized by various members of the court:

“The court now goes much further…overruling Lemon entirely and in all contexts.”

So, by tossing out Lemon and saying that Coach Kennedy was not speaking for the school because it was an extra-curricular activity, the barrier between prayer and secular school has been permanently breached.

In today’s America, outside money will fund your culture wars grievance in the courts. The longer you can keep your case moving up through the courts, the better chance you have of running into a conservative Christian judge who will find a precedent for the White people’s Jesus in the Bill of Rights.

Teachers will now feel empowered to “invite” a group to pray with them. A few kids will jump in right away, while others will look around uncomfortably and gradually agree to join in, because the social opprobrium that comes with refusing is huge for kids. And since the person inviting you to pray is an authority figure: a teacher, coach, or principal, you really risk a lot by having them decide you aren’t: A.Good.Christian.

When given the choice between upholding traditional case law or creating de novo judicial principles, the Roberts Court is almost always going to favor the latter.

Wrongo isn’t a lawyer, but many lawyers are now pointing to the extraordinarily shoddy nature of the Court’s majority opinions, including all three of the precedent-shattering ones the Court has issued over the last week.

It’s time to wake up America! Why is it so hard for Christians in the United States to just practice their religion without involving the rest of us?

We’re getting very close to the establishment of a default Christian American religion. We know that there are many public school teachers who have been silent despite their sincere religious beliefs while at school. Now they will be actively pressured by their pastors to begin proselytizing while on the clock.

To help you wake up, let’s travel to the 2022 Glastonbury music festival, which always creates great live music. On June 25, Olivia Rodrigo and Lily Allen dedicated the latter’s song “Fuck You” repurposed to express anger at five of the six Conservative members of the court.

Rodrigo named the Justices one by one, while Allen raised alternating middle fingers to them:

These artists aren’t afraid of controversy. Millions of us now feel exactly the same.

Sunday Cartoon Blogging – June 26, 2022

(New columns will be light and variable for the next week, since Wrongo and Ms. Right are attending grandson Conor’s wedding in NC. Regular programming will resume on July 6.)

We’re not talking about the Supreme Court or the J6 news this morning. We’ll leave that for the cartoons below. Instead, let’s focus on an enlightening article from Curbed: “Hoboken Hasn’t Had a Traffic Death in Four Years. What’s It Doing Right?”:

“Hoboken feels downright roomy. Wander down the wide, busy sidewalks of Washington Street, the city’s main strip…and one thing becomes clear….A pedestrian doesn’t have to play the…perilous game of New York City crosswalk chicken, where you squint through the windows of a massive metal box to catch a glimpse of another speeding metal box whose driver doesn’t see you.”

“Few drivers park next to crosswalks in Hoboken because they can’t. Those spots are blocked off with bike racks or planters or storm drains or extra sidewalk space for pedestrians or vertical plastic pylons that deter all but the boldest delivery-truck drivers. Stand at a corner, and you can see what is coming toward you, and drivers can see you too, and you don’t have to step out into the road and risk your life to do it.”

This concept is called Vision Zero, a strategy that municipalities across the US and abroad have adopted that seeks to alter traffic and engage pedestrians to lessen the severity of accidents. In total, Hoboken has had three traffic fatalities since 2015.

As Hoboken’s streets get safer, the rest of America is getting less safe. Traffic fatalities in NYC were up 44% percent in the first quarter of 2022. Hoboken has empowered it’s pedestrians and every corner makes it clear they have the right of way. Hoboken’s streak of zero fatalities could end at any time, and eventually will, but that’s no reason for other cities and towns not to enable similar change. On to cartoons.

Somebody should remind the Conservative ideologue Justices that America is a multi-belief country: