âPresident Trump on Friday threatened to block an emergency loan to shore up the U.S. Postal Service unless it dramatically raised shipping prices on online retailers…âThe Postal Service is a joke,â Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. [In order] To obtain a $10 billion line of credit Congress approved this month, âThe post office should raise the price of a package by approximately four times…â
The USPS is enshrined in the US Constitution. BTW, killing it might accomplish a few things for Trump:
It obstructs any Congressional effort to mandate mail-in voting.
It rewards private sector delivery carriers like FedEx and UPS that compete with the USPS. Many of them have donated both to Trump and Republican candidates.
The USPS is entirely self-funded. If you buy stamps, youâve funded the Post Office. Its operations are profitable. It loses money on paper because of Congressâs unique requirement for the USPS to pre-pay all future pension liabilities, something no other American corporation or institution is required to do. That was imposed by Republicans in 2006 in the Postal Accountability and Enhancement Act.
Heâs trying to make the Postal Service unprofitable. And when itâs a shell of its former self, sell it to UPS or FedEx who would be delighted to have one of their biggest competitors destroyed. On to cartoons.
Our grim future:
MAGA-ites drink the healing Kool aid:
Your lockdown inconveniences my freedumb:
Georgia takes aim at the lockdown:
Nursing homes account for 25% of US COVID-19 deaths. Remember the elderly and infirm:
The oil glut has forced the oil companies into the suburbs:
Wildflowers, Hidden Lake, Glacier NP, WY â August 2019 iPhone photo by anadoptabledog
Wrongo shopped at both Costco and at our local chain supermarket, Big Y in the past two days. Both were out of significant items, and not merely paper products.
A hallmark of American culture is the size of our supermarkets, and the dazzling variety of products available. Anyone who has shopped in foreign countries can attest to the difference, so itâs unsettling to see so many bare shelves.
What exactly is going on here? This is a downstream impact of COVID-19 and how weâre fighting the pandemic. We have a finely tuned supply chain, and the shutdown has upended it. On the demand side, commercial buyers of food, like restaurant chains, and commercial bakeries arenât buying what they bought in pre-COVID times. While consumers are cooking at home, and buying much more than ever before.
On the supply side, there are clear disruptions: Consumer demand for meat has skyrocketed. The WSJ reports:
âUS grocers are struggling to secure meat, looking for new suppliers and selling different cuts, as the coronavirus pandemic cuts into domestic production and raises fears of shortages.â
The Journal quotes Jeff Lyons, SVP at Costco:
âI have not seen beef sales and all protein behave this way since the Atkins Diet days…â
US beef production fell 24% compared with a month earlier, pork fell by 20%, and poultry was down 10%, according to estimates from CoBank, an agricultural lender. And wholesale prices are creeping up:
Aprilâs sharp decline in beef and pork prices reflected the drop in demand after the shutdown closed restaurants, while the spike is due to increasing consumer demand when production is down.
The spread of COVID-19 among US meat plant workers has hurt meat production. Companies are trucking poultry and livestock to be processed at more distant plants that remain open. On some farms, pigs are being euthanized because slaughterhouses have closed. In Iowa, Gov. Kim Reynolds dispatched 1,000 National Guard members to help deliver COVID-19 tests to Iowa meat plants so they could get back into operation.
Egg farmers are destroying eggs. Dairy farmers have been dumping thousands of gallons of milk. Some cattle ranchers are sending their herds to early slaughter because the restaurant market is dead: No one is going out for steak & eggs, or a bacon and egg breakfast in a diner. The Hilldescribed more lost food output:
âSome $5 billion of fresh fruits and vegetables have already gone to waste, according to the Produce Marketing Association, an industry trade group.â
We know how the virus outbreaks at food plants hurt meat production, but there are other supply chain problems.
The primary issue is supply chain mismatches caused by the lockdown. In normal times, people get a significant amount of food at restaurants, while many kids eat lunch at school. Our highly specialized supply chains canât adapt easily or quickly to the lockdown reality.
Wholesalers who focused on restaurants do not have the facilities for packaging food in a way people are used to seeing it on shelves, and grocery stores donât have relationships with the wholesale producers. The 50-pound bags of flour that mills sell to large bakeries or restaurants are of little use to people needing a five pound bag for a family of four.
Getting food to grocery shelves is also hampered by delivery people and grocery store workers alike who are increasingly calling out sick, either with Coronavirus, or the fear of getting it.
Finally, weâre seeing increased food insecurity. Before the pandemic began, 37 million Americans were considered food insecure. Since the start of the lockdown, about 25 million people have applied for unemployment. The bigger problem now is that so many people have no cash coming in. Meanwhile, food banks are having trouble supplying enough food to people who need it. In parts of America, that problem is far more acute that food shortages, and itâs unlikely to get better soon.
Sadly, we have millions needing food, when farmers are destroying what to them, is surplus food.
But enough of bad news, youâve had it with a week that saw us hit 50,000 COVID-19 deaths, and Trump grabbing at straws for a Coronavirus cure. Time for our Saturday Soother, a few moments when we forget about Trump, Corona and lockdowns to focus on our breathing, and something a little different.
Today, pull up a socially distant chair and listen to Maude Maggart sing an old standard from the 1930âs, âDeep Purpleâ. Maggart is Fiona Appleâs sister. Pretty talented family:
Those who read the Wrongologist in email can view the video here.
Wrongo and Ms. Right watched the âOne World Together at Homeâ television concert last Saturday. We stumbled upon it, meaning that wherever it was promoted, it never entered our consciousness. Letâs chalk that up to the distractions abounding in our year of living dangerously.
The two-hour event featured pre-recorded remote performances from Lady Gaga, Stevie Wonder, Paul McCartney, Elton John, Lizzo, and Taylor Swift, among many others. If you havenât seen it, the video is available here.
It wasnât originally planned as a fundraiser, but it inspired people across America to donate. Billboard reports that the show was watched by more than 21 million people, and we learned that it raised $127 million for COVID-19 aid.
For Wrongo, there were three highlights of the show. First, the Rolling Stones lip-synching to âYou Canât Always Get What You Wantâ, with Charlie Watts air drumming. He played a cushioned chair as a hi-hat. We definitely needed a pick me up, and unsurprisingly, Charlie was right on time. Mick, Keith and Ronnie were actually playing, and there was a keyboard and drum track, but it all worked.
Second, Lizzo, this generationâs Aretha, sang Sam Cookeâs âA Change Is Gonna Comeâ. Very nice, it was worth the whole show.
Third, Keith Urban performed âHigher Loveâ as a trio, with two digital copies of himself performing. At the end of the tune, Nicole Kidman came out and kissed one of the carbon copies. Like the Rolling Stones, Urbanâs video added levity to an otherwise somber set of performances.
Some down notes: Jennifer Lopez doing a note-for-note cover of Barbara Streisandâs âPeopleâ. And although not noticed by Wrongo, industry pros reported that Lady Gaga sang to the wrong side of a $20k Neumann microphone.
On balance, although the performances rarely were of the quality of the studio or live experience we are used to, it was a nice way to pass a couple of hours. Watching some big names live streaming using (mostly) modest home equipment leaves us with a sense that maybe, there’s not a huge divide between the talent of the anointed few, and the talents of the rest of us.
Since the start of the pandemic, we have been flooded with feel good moments from around the world, many are musically based, and the musical parodies can be fun.
Hereâs one that is a serious reworking of The Bandâs classic tune, âThe Weightâ by Robbie Robertson, remade in 2019 for the 50th anniversary of the song. It features musicians performing together across 5 continents, led by Robertson and Ringo Starr.
It was produced by the charity, Playing For Change. Their focus is to record musicians performing in their natural environments in a series called âSongs Around the Worldâ. They also have a nonprofit that builds music and art schools for children internationally.
The musicians performing on âThe Weightâ are incredible, but whoever mixed and edited it deserves a Grammy. The changes in vocalists and instrumentation feels natural and seamless. The sound is always balanced, and the editor also gives each musician a sufficient share of the limelight. We also meet some amazing artists many of whom were unknown, at least to Wrongo.
In these days of social distancing, this shows that distance can be a state of mind. Take a load off and turn it up. Trust Wrongo, you won’t be dissapointed:
Those who read the Wrongologist in email can view the video here.
When it comes to ending the lockdown, the theory is that once weâve âflattened the curveâ we can ease up on social isolation, mask-wearing and get back to work. The problem is that when we think about the downside of the curve, we think parabolas. This chart demonstrates that even with the âflatteningâ, weâve been told to expect a sharp drop-off in cases:
âThe dying wonât be over nearly as soon as it [a curve like that] suggests.â
OâNeil looked at the curves for Italy and Spain. Both had uncontrolled outbreaks and climbed the curve about two weeks ahead of the US. They also turned to lockdowns late, leading to overburdened hospitals. So, they offer a decent indication of what to expect in in America:
 âTheir curves…are not symmetric curves. They go up fast, flatten out and then descend slowly. How slowly? Itâs still hard to tell, but the shape strongly suggests that the bad news wonât go away nearly as quickly as it arrived.â
Hereâs Italy for example:
Itâs too early in the virusâs growth in the US to know what the right side of our curve will look like, but the evidence from Europe suggests that the descent will be slow. More from OâNeil:
âNew York Governor Andrew Cuomo has said âthe worst is overâ and âweâve reached the peak.â He should have followed with ânow comes the long wait.â
Sheâs saying that the far side of the curve is likely to be a long, slow slog. This is food for thought for politicians who must decide when to end the lockdown.
It should also be food for thought for all of those protesting the lockdowns. In addition to the shape of the curve, we still have almost no idea what the actual prevalence of the virus is in the general population.
Abbott Labs has developed a 5 minute serology test that it says has 100% sensitivity and 99.6% specificity (Sensitivity means the test detects the presence of antibodies triggered by the COVID-19 virus; specificity means it successfully avoids mistaking that virus for similar coronaviruses).
The test was used in the Boston suburb of Chelsea. It found that of 200 randomly sampled residents who were stopped on the street and asked to give some drops of blood, 64 had antibodies. That’s 32%. The study was conducted by physicians at Massachusetts General Hospital.
John Iafrate, a pathologist at Harvard and the studyâs principal investigator, said:
âWe donât know at this point what percent of these antibody-positive individuals are still carrying virus, but a fair estimate is likely 30-50%.â
Soumya, a health reporter for the LA Times, tweeted: (emphasis by Wrongo)
âLA County just released the results of their antibody study. Tests found that 4.1% of the county’s population has antibodies to the coronavirus. That figure is 55 times higher than what is suggested by the official case count.â
This suggests that there are many more infected, but asymptomatic people than are in the official numbers.
So, we need to be more sensible about both the shape of the curve, and about how little we know about who has the disease, and who doesnât.
We’re still flying almost totally blind, four months after the government found out this was coming.
World War II lasted six years. Americans from coast to coast planted victory gardens; turned bacon grease into bombs; recycled paper, metal, and rubber. Staples like sugar were rationed. Mothers went to work in defense plants. The war lasted six years, and half a million Americans died.
Fast forward: While some might say we’re not at war, it sure feels like we’re under attack. But our flag-waviest Americans today canât even last six weeks, much less pull together.
Turns out, we have lost most of our social cohesion, the collective will to commit to a path, and work together to make the goal a reality.
In the past, we had a set of unwritten expectations that members of our society were expected to comply with, like voting, paying taxes, and displaying tolerance for others. Even these deminimus expectations are fraying today.
Weâre being told that weâre on one team, or the other: Team working, or Team lockdown. Each is supposed to do the best it can to help control the virus, but people are becoming frustrated and angry.
If you need a visual representation of the reasons why, take a look at this chart from Visual Capitalist:
The chart graphs jobs by income and degree of risk of catching COVID-19. They used the following criteria to establish level of risk:
Contact With Others: How much does this job require the worker to be in contact with others in order to perform it?
Physical Proximity: To what extent does this job require the worker to perform tasks in close physical proximity to others?
Exposure to Disease and Infection: How often does this job require exposure to hazardous conditions?
Visual Capitalist then assigned a Risk Score between 0 and 100, with 100 representing the highest possible risk to each job. More from Visual Capitalist: (emphasis by Wrongo)
âMany individuals have been practicing social distancing by working from home in recent weeks. While this arrangement can be a great way to reduce oneâs exposure to COVID-19, itâs a luxury thatâs available to just 29% of Americans.
The situation for the remaining 71% is uncertain, to say the least. A significant portion of the population has lost their jobs due to business shutdowns and mandated lockdown orders. Others employed in âessential servicesâ have continued working as usual, but may face a higher risk of potential exposure to the virus.â
Andrew Noymer, a public-health professor and an expert on the 1918 influenza pandemic, observed:
âSomeone is at home wondering how heâs going to make rent and feed his family,â he said. âAnd someone else is wondering if they can binge-watch the first season of The Sopranos…â
So itâs understandable that at least 71% of America want to end the lockdown. They are business owners who stand to lose plenty, or unemployed workers who have nothing left to lose.
Thereâs a disconnect with the end the lockdown reasoning and the world in which we live. We live, work, play, and eat together. We buy from and sell to each other. We depend on the farmers, the truck drivers, the street repair people, and the bankers. More than ever, we depend on the medical people, the teachers, and the people who run all kinds of business, big and small. And they depend on all the people who work for them.
The virus has disrupted all of that.
Are the lockdown protesters ready to pitch in and take the high risk jobs above? Will they drive the buses? Wait on tables? Deliver the groceries? Clean hospital rooms? Work with people who may be infected in nursing homes?
Time to wake up, America! We need to reach back and try for more social cohesion, or weâre lost. To help us wake up, we turn to Bob Dylan. Letâs listen to his âSlow Train Comingâ:
Today, it’s no longer a Slow Train. It’s high-balling down the track.
Sample lyric:
Big-time negotiators, false healers and woman haters
Masters of the bluff and masters of the proposition
But the enemy I see wears a cloak of decency
All nonbelievers and men stealers talkingâ in the name of religion
And thereâs a slow, slow train cominâ up around the bend
People starving and thirsting, grain elevators are bursting
Oh, you know it costs more to store the food than it do to give it
They say lose your inhibitions follow your own ambitions
They talk about a life of brotherly love show me someone who knows how to live it
Thereâs a slow, slow train cominâ up around the bend
Those who read the Wrongologist in email can view the video here.
One week ago, the cumulative US COVID-19 death toll was 15,000. Seven days later, the death toll is now 36,000. That means in a week, about 21,000 Americans have died, a growth rate of 140%. In the past two months, hereâs how US coronavirus deaths have grown:
Feb 17: 0 deaths
March 17: 111 deaths
April 17: 36,997 deaths
Although deaths are a lagging indicator for how successful we are in our efforts to contain the Coronavirus, and despite all the happy talk about flattening the curve, this looks like a rocket ship leaving the launch pad.
However, of those 660 who were positive, 60% have not shown any symptoms associated with the illness. This should cause us to question the true rate of infections in the US. The proportion of people who are asymptomatic carriers worldwide remains unknown, but at 60%, the Theodore Rooseveltâs figure is higher than the 25%-50% range Dr. Fauci laid out in early April.
Taking these two data points together, America should proceed carefully as it leaves the lockdown.
On to cartoons. Another day, another spin of the big blame wheel:
With big business, some things never change:
If not his signature, then certainly his fingerprints:
The rightâs narrative that can kill:
Individual responsibility has consequences:
John Roberts has to live with his Wisconsin voting decision:
Rainbow appears over NYC at 7pm, the time of change of shift for NYCâs health workers – April 13th 2020 photo by Steve Braband. Thanks to reader Shelley VK.
An argument by those who want to end the lockdown about those who think we should keep it is:Â âYou have shut down the economy because you think even one death is too many.â
That is a misrepresentation of what Americaâs governors have done. They really have said: âWe reduced the economy and restricted daily activities because otherwise, as many as a million people might die.â
What is missed by the âlive free or dieâ folks is that these actions were taken to reduce the risks to human life from the pandemic. They say, you shouldnât ask us to stay locked down, because âlife is full of risk anywayâ.
To a degree, they are correct. Lockdowns only work for the privileged. They donât work for everyone, because the level of income support and debt relief provided by the government is inadequate to the need. If landscapers are not essential in a state, they donât work. But since they live paycheck to paycheck, they wonât be able to buy food. And when they see others working and earning, thatâs got to be angering.
If we ask people for sacrifice and compliance, the country must at least secure their short term needs.
Since the government isnât providing adequately for those needs, rebelliousness, non-compliance, and virus denialism are on the rise, as we saw in Thursdayâs large demonstration in Michigan.
In Connecticut, Wrongoâs home state, the major issue every spring is passing the town budget. With a COVID-19 shutdown in effect, Governor Ned Lamont (D) issued an executive order suspending in-person voting for the next fiscal yearâs budget. And there is no vote by mail option in CT.
His order has been met with livid anger on the right and left, conjuring up âno taxation without representationâ and calls to âstand up for your rightsâ. People are saying if they can shop using social distance, why canât they vote using social distance?
What angers many in town is that voters have rejected several budgets in recent years. The town then lowers the numbers, and it goes back to voters who eventually approve it. They could simply roll over last yearâs approved budget, but instead, theyâre going to pass a budget increase along with an increase in taxes, without ratification by voters.
The executive order seems wrong-headed, and it’s making people very angry. And so non-compliance will grow, as will denialism that the virus is a serious health problem.
All of this may help the virus flare up again soon.
In a comment, blog reader Terry McKenna brought up the concept of the âTragedy of the Commonsâ, the idea that all individuals have a right to consume a resource even if it comes at the expense of other individuals. If demand overwhelms supply, every individual who consumes an additional unit directly harms all others who can no longer benefit from it.
Most Americans donât think about how their actions impact others. Most are unwilling to even temporarily comply with limitations placed on them for the common good. With Operation Gridlock in Michigan, weâre seeing more proof that when human health and safety go up against the almighty dollar, humans will lose.
People should remember that finding a vaccine for the virus is not a sure thing. Thereâs also little reason to believe that once a vaccine is found, that it will be completely effective. The longer people are allowed to think that universal Coronavirus immunity is just around the corner, the angrier they will get when that isnât the case.
Until we know if a vaccine is likely or not, the current political climate wonât be conducive to rational discussions about difficult decisions. The virus canât spread itself, but it seems to have plenty of helpers.
On this spring Saturday, letâs forget about non-compliance and the Coronavirus for a few minutes. Letâs have a brief respite, and indulge in a Saturday Soother.
Start by inviting your besties to a Quarantini video conference. The term âQuarantiniâ was actually coined several years ago on the podcast âThis podcast will kill youâ, hosted by two disease ecologists/epidemiologists. Wrongo prefers Irish single malts, but pour whatever makes you happy. And make a toast: Confusion to our enemies!
Next, settle back and spend a few minutes watching and listening to a parody tribute to NY Governor Andrew Cuomo, from Randy Rainbow, âANDY!â:
Those who read the Wrongologist in email, can view the video here.
But this is wrong. In a pandemic, the business of America is not business; itâs public health. Absent public confidence that the virus is at least under control, many businesses and workers won’t be comfortable heading back to work, no matter what politicians say:
âMore than eight in 10 voters, 81%, say Americans âshould continue to social distance for as long as is needed to curb the spread of coronavirus, even if it means continued damage to the economy…. Democrats (89%) are more likely than Republicans (72%) to say Americans should continue the âsocial distancingâ measuresâ
Looks like Trump holds a minority view. To see if there was any concrete basis for saying the US was in a position to reopen soon, Wrongo looked at the COVID-19 Tracking Projectâs state-level numbers, and subtracted the terrible NY numbers from the rest. Hereâs the result:
The conclusion is that NY isnât all that terrible compared to the rest of the US. It has a decreasing share of Americaâs total infections and deaths. But the highlighted rate of increase in deaths in the rest of the US since April 12th should concern the White House.
In fact, the seven-day average for growth in new cases shows that cases in the rest of the US are growing faster. NY is growing at 5.27%, while the rest of US is growing at 5.83%.
âThe only hospital in Grand Island, Neb., is full. The mayor…asked for a statewide stay-at-home order that the GOP governor insists isnât needed. More than one-third of those tested for coronavirus in the surrounding county are positive â and there arenât enough tests to go around.
Grand Island is the fourth-biggest city in a state President Donald Trump and his top health officials repeatedly [say is]…keeping the virus at bay without the strict lockdowns 42 other states have imposed.â
New cases in Nebraska and in Iowa, South Dakota and other parts of the heartland are starting to spike. This should be raising concerns about whether weâre controlling the disease. Hereâs Nebraskaâs Republican Gov. Pete Ricketts saying that voluntary social distancing is working: (emphasis by Wrongo)
âThis is a program that depends on people exercising personal responsibility and their civic duty….This is about making that decision, not the heavy hand of government taking away your freedoms.â
All of a sudden, as if they saw the bat signal, Republicans want to do the âLive Free or Dieâ thing. From the Daily Beast:
âA protest movement is taking hold targeting states that have extended social-distancing rules, closed schools, and restricted access to large religious gatherings. And itâs being fed by loyalists and political allies of President Donald Trump.â
This seems to be âspontaneousâ support for Trumpâs effort to reopen the economy.
In Michigan, a demonstration called âOperation Gridlockâ protested Governor Whitmerâs shelter-at-home orders. Michigan has the third-highest number of COVID-19 cases in America, and the lockdown lowered infections. But Republicans criticize the order. Several thousand cars blocked the Lansing streets to protest what they see as an infringement of their liberty.
A lot of calories are going into the open vs. lockdown debate. It’s all a waste of time. How will we get a healthy economy if we eliminate the lockdown before we have any chance of stopping the mass transmission of this disease?
People arenât staying at home because governments told them to. Theyâre doing it because itâs not safe to be out there. They arenât going to go to work willingly in crowded offices, or travel, or attend concerts unless the danger is visibly lessened. And the economy will not recover until people are willing to do these things.
It’s not about flipping a switch. Businesses reopening will happen in small steps, as public health officials and political leaders, especially mayors and governors (and businesses), work to establish the basic conditions for a return to economic activity.
The bottom line is that the people are in control. We had to be convinced to stay home, and now we’ll have to be convinced to go out.
You go first, should be the peopleâs mantra. Trump should go back to holding MAGA rallies immediately. He should put his life and those of his supporters, where his mouth is.
Sunrise in Monument Valley, UT â photo by therealmindzeye. Note the sun star!
Happy tax day! Here are the updated COVID-19 seven-day results as of 4/13:
The number of new cases has plateaued. The average rate of increase for the past seven days is 6.88% vs. 5.00% on 4/13. But, this is a function of how many tests are conducted.
The number of deaths is increasing more slowly, averaging 11.94% for the past seven days vs. 7.35% on 4/13.
More people were tested on 4/13 than on any day in the past seven days, but we still lag April 4th, which was the countryâs high point in tests at 229,268.
We all hear the daily recitation of new cases, deaths and tests, but as Wrongo said last week, there are multiple issues with the data that politicians and public health officials are relying on for decision-making.
â1. The number of infected is close to meaningless. Only people who get tested can be counted, and there still arenât enough tests…anecdotal evidence suggests that people need to be ill enough to be hospitalized [to get tested]. About 10% of cases merit hospitalization, so the actual number of infected might be about ten times larger than whatâs reported.
2. The tests arenât accurate and the inaccuracies aren’t symmetric. In particular, they produce many more false negatives than false positives….Some research suggests that the false negative rate could exceed 30%.
3. The number of tests doesnât equal the number of people tested. Because the tests are so inaccurate, some people get tested twice….This means that the share of the population tested compared to the number of people found to be infected paints a rosier picture than reality…another reason to believe that the actual number of infected is higher.
4. The numbers arenât in sync. People sometimes die weeks after being hospitalized, and they get hospitalized a week or more after testing positive for the virus. So we shouldnât expect the ânumber of deathsâ curve to flatten until pretty long after the ânumber of casesâ curve does.
5. The meaning of hospitalization is changing. Officials have recently presented flattening hospital admissions as a positive sign. But it takes a lot more to get somebody to the hospital these days. Hotlines are jammed, ambulances are scarce, standards for who gets hospitalized have drastically changed, and people are avoiding overwhelmed emergency rooms. So fewer hospitalizations doesnât necessarily mean that the situation is getting better.
6. Deaths arenât reported immediately or consistently. Various operational issues, such as paper filing and notifying next of kin, determine when a death actually gets registered. This might help explain why the most deaths tend to get reported on Tuesdays.
7. Deaths outside hospitals arenât being reported. When people die at home or in nursing facilities, veteran homes, or prisons, theyâre not always counted…..When France started reporting fatalities in nursing homes, their death count increased by 40%. Belgium reports nursing home deaths pretty well, and they’re finding 40% of deaths occur there.
8. The policy for attributing deaths isnât consistent. Once somebody is gone, why waste a valuable test? So doctors might not mention Covid-19 as a contributing cause. Itâs a judgment call, especially when someone was sick already. This might have a very large effect on the data in certain environments like rehab facilities and nursing homes.
9. Officials may have incentives to hide coronavirus cases. China, Indonesia and Iran have all come under scrutiny for their statistics…..So donât assume that officials are above…manipulation.
10. What happens in one place, or on average, might not be applicable everywhere. Some small studies suggest that the Covid-19 mortality rate is about 1% of the infected population. But that doesnât mean it will be the same in the US, or in New York City….As weâve seen in recent days, such disparities are disproportionately affecting people of color.â
You should follow the Mathbabe. We all rely on the count, but as Cathy says, we may not know the true numbers for some time. Testing needs to be done systematically, particularly on asymptomatic people, once we decide to end the lockdowns.
For deaths, accurate numbers may never be available. Itâs possible to estimate using the number of unexpected deaths compared to a year earlier. But even thatâs not ideal, because lockdowns might suppress other kinds of deaths â traffic accidents, for example â since people are forced to stay at home.
Despite flaws in the data reporting, weâre all obsessed with learning how America is responding to the pandemic. And the daily updates on tests, cases, and deaths gives us a reasonable clue about what to expect, when things might get better, or how our leaders are doing with the response to the virus.
Sunrise, Mauna Kea, HI â 2020 photo by laramarie27
Hereâs the COVID-19 tracking report as of April 12:
The rate of increase in infections and deaths appear to have plateaued, while deaths as a percentage of cases continues to rise. Testing hovers around 140,000 per day, still growing slower than the rate of new infections.
The next chart seems to indicate that opening the lockdown would be a mistake. The impression is that the rest of the country isnât doing as badly as New York. Here is a comparison of cases in New York to cases in the rest of the US:
On the 12th, infections in the rest of the US started to grow faster than new infections in NY. The rate of new deaths in the rest of the US has also become a larger share of total US deaths. So far, there is little evidence to conclude that the administration should reverse the lockdown strategies of the states.
Today we continue with yesterdayâs question, âwhatâs next?â
When parts of the US, and eventually all of it come out from physical and economic quarantine, we will attempt to return to “normal”. Normal will bring with it a level of economic devastation, bankruptcy, and household impoverishment that will almost certainly be beyond what politicians can now imagine.
To bridge across to a sustained level of economic activity, the Federal government and the Federal Reserve will have to add substantial stimulus beyond the $2 trillion so far, possibly an additional $5+ trillion, in new stimulus.
Most of those new funds will have to go to individuals and small businesses in the form of outright grants. Otherwise, small and medium size firms will not be able to reopen their doors after a prolonged shutdown.
Grants to individuals will be most important. Renters and homeowners will have no means to become current on back rent and mortgage payments. Without these funds, the impact within the financial sector will exceed that of the Great Recession, as rents and mortgages would go unpaid for months. Foreclosures and evictions would skyrocket.
Local and state governments that rely on tax revenue from sales taxes, income taxes, real estate and property taxes will be deeply affected as well.
Bipartisan talk in DC of a new effort to create $2 trillion in infrastructure funding makes sense as a source of jobs and needed economic revival. It will also jump start the downstream suppliers of steel, cement and heavy equipment.
The Federal government may have to take equity stakes in large companies like it did in the 2008 auto bailout. In a fashion, this will make the US look a lot more âsocialistâ than it did in 2019.
There will also be psychological fallout that will be difficult to anticipate. Axios thinks the Coronavirus may be a defining experience for Generation Z, shaping its outlook for decades to come, disrupting its entry to adulthood and altering its earning potential, trust in institutions and views on family and sex.
Pew Research says that nearly half of workers ages 16-24 held service jobs in bars, restaurants and hotels â many of which have now been shut down or greatly scaled back. And young workers with less experience are the first to be let go.
Nearly 25% of US workers, 38.1 million out of 157.5 million, are employed in industries most likely to feel an immediate impact from the COVID-19 lockdown. Among the most vulnerable are workers in retail trade (10% of all workers) and food services and drinking places (6%). In total, these two industries employ nearly 26 million Americans. More from Pew:
âWorkers in these industries have lower-than-average earnings. Across all industries, the average weekly earnings in January 2020 were $975. By contrast, workers in food services and drinking places earned only $394 per week on average. Workers in the other high-risk industries had earnings ranging from around $500 to $600 per week.â
Hence the need for a financial bridge by the federal government.
Part of the new normal must be adequate inventory of medical supplies to deal with any future replay of the Coronavirus or another pandemic. The NYT reports that China today makes about 80% of the worldâs antibiotics, along with the building blocks for a long list of drugs. That supply can be shut off at any time, for any reason. It is now painfully obvious that health care must be a primary national security concern, something our politicians were blind to just a few months ago.
Will these, and other necessary things change?
So far, we have a redux of 2008. The Fed and Treasury have decided to bailout speculative capital and big corporations, let small businesses fail, and let the working poor employed by small business to become even more impoverished.
