Social Safety Net – Page 3 – The Wrongologist

Schumer and Manchin Love Bipartisanship, Hate Diabetics

The Daily Escape:

Full moon, 4:00 am, Burlington, VT harbor -July 2022 photo by Adam Silverman Photography

Senate Democrats have been working on a prescription drug pricing reform proposal aimed at lowering the cost of prescription drugs by allowing Medicare to negotiate prices for up to 20 drugs.

The House passed similar legislation which was considered by the Senate last year. That bill included language that would have made all insulin products subject to Medicare price negotiation and would have capped Medicare beneficiaries’ insulin copays at $35 per month.

Earlier this month, Senate Democrats (including Manchin), reached a deal on a plan that would allow Medicare Part D to negotiate the prices of up to 20 prescription medications directly with pharmaceutical corporations, a proposal that is overwhelmingly popular with voters across party lines.

But the Senate Finance Committee has just left insulin out of the package they plan to send to the floor of the Senate. From Yahoo News: (parenthesis by Wrongo)

“Staff for the Democrats on the Senate Finance committee said the provisions were removed because a separate bipartisan Senate bill (the Insulin Act) includes the monthly $35 insulin cost cap for people with Medicare or private insurance.”

But that separate bill is facing an uphill battle because it would need 60 votes in the Senate to cross the filibuster hurdle, while the drug pricing reform bill is expected to be part of the Senate’s reconciliation process, requiring only 51 votes to become law.

Bloomberg Law reports that Schumer: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“…has said he plans to hold a vote soon on a measure from a bipartisan duo to cap the out-of-pocket cost of insulin at $35 a month. But passing the legislation from Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) requires the support of Republicans, and key GOP senators say they’re not ready for a vote right now.”

Naturally, diabetics and their interest groups are up in arms. That people have to pay huge sums for insulin is a very visible problem among all of the problems with America’s health care system. That Democrats may cave on fixing this in favor of making the path harder reveals much about the Dem’s ability to govern.

From Common Dreams: (brackets by Wrongo)

“Insulin prices in the US [are] seven times higher than those found in peer countries [and] are so steep that experts have accused the federal government and pharmaceutical industry of violating human rights. More than 37 million people in the US have been diagnosed with diabetes….Because just three pharmaceutical corporations control the nation’s lucrative insulin market, the century-old drug can cost a person without adequate health insurance more than $300 per vial.”

So, an oligopoly controls insulin.

The massive coverage gaps inherent in our for-profit healthcare system have left millions of people across the US who rely on insulin, unable to afford it. Corporate profiteering is forcing many people to ration the drug or forgo it, often with deadly consequences.

Considering the fact that insulin is more than 100 years old, it should be as close to free as possible. Why not set up a not-for-profit co-op to manufacture insulin, which would then be available for the cost of production? One such organization that’s trying to do just that is the Open Insulin Foundation. However it isn’t clear that they have launched production of insulin at this point.

The drug pricing reform bill would start negotiating with drug manufacturers sometime in the next three years and wouldn’t be fully implemented until 2030, so it’s weak tea to begin with. And it’s only for 20 drugs, and the most used one is no longer included.

Schumer and Manchin are responsible for taking insulin out of the bill that will certainly pass, in favor of it being in a stand-alone bill that probably won’t pass, because they still don’t have the Republican votes they need to pass a separate insulin bill.

Unless Democrats abandon their efforts to convert Republicans to bipartisanship, Wrongo’s days of funding their election campaigns are over.

Saturday Soother – June 18, 2022

The Daily Escape:

Rainy morning, with Vista House at Crown Point in right foreground, Columbia River Gorge, WA – June 2022 photo by David Leahy Photography

Wrongo has written before about the crushing burden of consumer debt in the US. Medical debt is an American disgrace, and Noam Levey, Kaiser Health News (KHN) Senior Correspondent has written an excellent piece about it. He says that 100 million people in America, some 41% of adults, owe some level of debt to healthcare providers.

But most studies don’t reveal the actual extent of the debt because much of it appears as credit card balances, loans from family, or payment plans arranged with hospitals and other medical providers. To calculate the true extent and burden of this debt, KHN partnered with NPR, and the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) to conduct a nationwide poll designed to capture not just bills patients couldn’t afford, but other forms of borrowing used to pay for health care.

The results are contained in the KFF Health Care Debt Survey. The KFF poll found that half of US adults don’t have the cash to cover an unexpected $500 health care bill. As a result, many simply don’t pay their medical bills. The flood of unpaid bills has made medical debt the most common form of consumer debt in America.

Over the past five years, more than half of US adults report they’ve gone into debt because of medical or dental bills. Moreover, a quarter of adults with health care debt owe more than $5,000, and about 20% with any amount of debt said they don’t expect to ever pay it off.

Debt incurred for health care is forcing many families to cut spending on food and other essentials. The poll also found that millions are being driven from their homes or into bankruptcy:

So, if 100 million people were in debt and 17% declared bankruptcy or lost their home, that’s 17 million people! The KFF poll found that the debt is also preventing Americans from saving for retirement, investing in their children’s educations, or buying a home. And debt from health care is nearly twice as common for adults under 30 as for those 65 and older. And that age cohort is supposed to be much healthier than the elderly.

Perversely, about 1 in 7 people with medical debt said they’ve been denied access to a hospital, doctor, or other provider because of unpaid bills. An even greater share (two-thirds) have put off care that they, or a family member need because of the cost.

Hospitals are among the culprits. They are capitalizing on their patients’ inability to pay. Hospitals and other medical providers are pushing millions of patients who can’t afford to pay into credit cards and other loans. These are high interest rate loans, carrying rates that top 29%, according to research firm IBISWorld.

This collections business is fed by hospitals, including public university systems and nonprofits granted tax breaks to serve their communities, who sell the outstanding debt to collections companies.

Welcome to the best country on earth, (maybe) one that doesn’t have the best health care system (and certainly one without health insurance for all). We have a system which shackles 100 million people to medical debt while at the click of a computer mouse, we send $billions in armaments overseas before those same dollars are recycled into the coffers of our Military-Industrial complex.

That’s all for this week. It’s time for our Saturday Soother, when we take a break from the J6 public hearings and whether Ginni Thomas was another Trumpist plotter. Let’s focus on calming ourselves for whatever insults are coming next week.

Here at the Mansion of Wrong, we’re engaged in an air conditioning project, adding more central air to our home. Hey, we’re aware of the crummy stock market, and the rampant inflation, but consume we must.

To help you clear your head on this warm weekend, grab a seat outdoors and brew up a cup of Supernatural coffee ($18.45/12 oz.) by Lee, MA’s own Barrington Coffee Roasting Company. This espresso is said to have flavors of Concord grape, dark chocolate, plum and tangle berry pie!

Wrongo has no idea what tangle berries look like, much less what they taste like.

Now, put on your wireless headphones and listen to the “Adagio for Oboe, Cello, Organ and Strings”, also known as “Elevazione” or “All’Elevazione” by Domenico Zipoli.

Zipoli was an Italian Jesuit priest who lived much of his life in what is now Argentina. He studied with Scarlatti, became a Jesuit, worked as a missionary, and died in 1726 in Argentina at age 38. If fate had granted Zipoli another 20 to 25 years, he might be regarded today as a major composer. Here it’s performed in 2015 by the Collegia Musica Chiemgau conducted by Elke Burkert :

Which States Are The Best for Working Moms?

The Daily Escape:

Sunrise, Columbia Hills, WA – May 2022 photo by Mitch Schreiber Photography

Each year, WalletHub ranks the best and worst states for working mothers. Below is an overview of their methodology and findings: Women make up nearly half of the US workforce, and nearly 68% of moms with children under age 18 were working in 2021. That share of the workforce declined during Covid, dropping around 1.3% between Q3 2019 and Q3 2021 (compared to 1.1% for men).

We know that women face an uphill battle in the workplace, with their average hourly wage being just 84% of what men make. They face other non-financial problems as well. Parental leave policies and other childcare support systems vary by state, but the quality of infrastructure — from cost-effective day care to public schools, is far from uniform.

WalletHub compares state performance across 17 metrics to rank the best & worst states. They compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia across three key dimensions: 1) Childcare, 2) Professional Opportunities and 3) Work-Life Balance:

“We evaluated those dimensions using 17 relevant metrics…with their corresponding weights. Each metric was graded on a 100-point scale, with a score of 100 representing the most favorable conditions for working moms. We then determined each state and the District’s weighted average across all metrics to calculate its overall score and used the resulting scores to rank-order our sample.”

WalletHub’s weighted average for the three categories was as follows: Childcare = 40 possible points, Professional Opportunities = 30 possible points, and Work-Life Balance = 30 possible points, totaling 100 points available per state. That translates into the overall total score below. Here are the top 10 US states for working mothers with individual state rankings by category:

It’s very telling that America’s best score was 62.99 out of 100, meaning that all states have a long way to go to make us a nation that supports women and mothers. Wrongo is happy to note that Connecticut is #1 in job opportunities for women. Here are the bottom 10 states:

Note that only California of the bottom 10 states is an urban (and blue) state. It gets killed in the rankings because of its terrible performance on childcare. If you are interested in how your state ranked, you can see an interactive map of all the states here. WalletHub also compared the top and bottom five states across a few of their metrics. Here’s what those rankings show:

According to a recent report, more than 2.3 million American women have dropped out of the labor force since the start of the pandemic. Solving the problems that keep these women out of the workforce should be a focus for all of the states.

This is particularly true for service and front-line workers whose work scheduling can be unpredictable and for many jobs, there is limited flexibility. Companies should do more. They can create more flexible work environments, allowing parents to take short-term time off. They can strive to eliminate schedule unpredictability for hourly workers. Companies can also work to change their culture to better recognize work-life balance.

The biggest hypocrisy of the anti-abortion movement and the Supreme Court’s apparent decision on abortion is that the Justices and the Republicans are willing to go to the mat to protect the unborn, but that commitment mysteriously vanishes once a child exits the womb.

In many cases, these same zealots are actively hostile to programs that would benefit children.

Parenthood is humankind’s most important job; but there’s no internship, no training program, no handbook. You dive into it and are expected to figure things out on your own. It’s true that parents should bear the responsibility and costs of raising a child, but, government intervention should be available, depending on local conditions and income levels. Some parents simply need help.

At a time when Republicans and the Supreme Court seem to be willing to discount the value of women in our society, it’s important that we battle their views on the economic front as well as on the political front.

Monday Wake Up Call – January 31, 2022

The Daily Escape:

Mount Saint Nicholas, Glacier NP, MT – January 2022 photo by Jack Bell Photography

Anyone else thinking that our national party bus is about to stall out in the slow lane on America’s Boulevard of Broken Dreams?

Here’s an under-the-radar story: In 2020, the Trump administration hatched a plan to gradually transition traditional Medicare over to private firms. It’s called Direct Contracting (DC) and is operated by Direct Contracting Entities (DCEs). Currently, there are 53 of them in Phase One of an experimental program operated by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS).

Under the program, the DCEs receive a fixed amount of money annually to cover care for each traditional Medicare enrollee whose primary care doctor (or group) has signed up with that DCE. The DCEs must pay for all of the care of those people assigned to them. To date, the CMS has auto-assigned hundreds of thousands of people to DCEs.

Since no one on Medicare has voluntarily signed up to work with a DCE, it’s unlikely they know of, nor understand what’s happening. And the CMS doesn’t require DCEs to tell people that they have the right to opt-out.

The idea behind DCEs is to shift a portion of the financial risk of the elderly’s medical care away from traditional Medicare by capping the payments to a third party that’s responsible to pay for it. This is the latest in many efforts by CMS and Congress to control the rising costs of healthcare.

Wrongo and Ms. Right have recently noticed a blizzard of direct mail offers to convert our traditional Medicare to an all-in insurance program. It’s probable that some of these are from DCEs.

The anticipated advantage of the DCE experiment is that Medicare’s out-of-pocket costs will be capped. The DCEs contract with CMS is for an agreed-upon annual payment. They have to pay for care and also make a profit based on that fixed revenue amount from the government. In addition to the normal profits from providing services, DCEs can keep as much as 40% of the money they don’t spend on care.

But there’s no such thing as a free lunch, and it seems to Wrongo that this creates yet another financial incentive to deny otherwise necessary treatments. It’s possible that the DCEs could pay doctors to steer patients away from specialty care. This means that someone enrolled in a DCE has reason to worry that their primary care doctor might limit their access to more costly care.

Direct contracting is supposed to be a pilot program, yet Medicare has no plans to limit the number of people it enrolls in these new plans. Instead, Medicare has announced plans to enroll 100% of traditional Medicare members into DCE-like programs by 2030.

Congress did not authorize the wholesale overhaul of traditional Medicare, so why is this happening? And so far, the Biden administration appears to be willing to continue playing Trump’s cards.

Many of the DCEs are owned by Private Equity (PE) firms. It doesn’t take a chess master to see that the PE firms will ultimately sell out to the insurance industry. And it wouldn’t be a big leap from that to fully privatize Medicare.

Time to wake up America! Did we elect Biden to privatize Medicare? The word “privatize” should scare the hell out of Americans. But unfortunately they’ve been fooled into believing that by some magic miracle of economics, it’s to their benefit.

To help you wake up, today we spend a few minutes with Neil Young. Wrongo appreciates Neil Young saying he wanted his music removed from Spotify if Joe Rogan is allowed to continue spewing his anti-Vaxx trash there.

This was an easy business decision for Spotify. They picked the popular podcaster Rogan with the $100 million-plus exclusive deal, over the cranky 76-year-old rocker whose last gold album was nearly two decades ago. Someone who hasn’t been on the Billboard charts since 1982.

Joni Mitchell and Dave Grohl have now said they will follow Young in leaving Spotify.

Let’s watch and listen to Neil Young playing “Hey Hey, My My” at Farm Aid in Champaign, Illinois on September, 1985. Young is a co-founder and board member of Farm Aid, along with Willie Nelson and John Mellencamp:

Neil won’t burn out or fade away.

Sample Lyric:
Out of the blue
and into the black
You pay for this,
but they give you that
And once you’re gone,
you can’t come back
When you’re out of the blue
and into the black.

“You pay for this, and they give you that”. Listen up Medicare!

How Bad Is Inflation?

The Daily Escape:

Chaco Canyon’s Chetro Ketl Great House – January 2022 photo by James C. Wilson

Every media outlet is talking about the latest inflation numbers. The NYT reported that the Consumer Price Index climbed to 7% for the year through December, and 5.5% after volatile prices such as food and fuel were stripped out. Sounds terrible, right?

Nobody likes higher prices. But remember that 12 month inflation rates (called year over year rates) are a look backward in time. And consumer prices increased 0.5% in December, lower than in the past several months. Month-to-month measures are more reflective of current conditions, although they bounce around more than year/year numbers. A half of one percent rise in December annualizes to a 6% inflation rate, less than the headline rate, if it remains at that level going forward.

Also, wholesale prices rose just 0.2% in December, the smallest increase in 13 months. So maybe inflation is starting to level off.

So, maybe this is a case of beware the headlines. Eric Boehlert says that US media can’t (or won’t) give people context for the current inflationary trend:

“Convinced that rising prices are the defining economic issue of the day — not huge job gains, record-setting GDP predictions, or boosted wages — the press continues to portray inflation as a uniquely American problem that’s hounding Democrats.”

Boehlert says that what’s missing from our inflation coverage is information that inflation is a global phenomenon, fueled by the pandemic. He cites the following articles:

Republicans claim that Biden’s agenda is responsible for inflation. The average person can be forgiven if they believe that Biden’s policies are the cause, but Biden didn’t cause inflation to jump in all of these other countries.

The Economist reports that since the pandemic, there has been a total of $10.8 trillion in worldwide fiscal stimulus, equivalent to 10% of global GDP. The result was that developed countries finally moved the needle on inflation, after they added money to their economies for nearly 15 years since the Great Recession.

So, while each item of the Consumer Price Index — cars, homes, energy and so on — has unique factors driving its prices, there’s an overall reality: The economy is recovering far more quickly than it normally does following a severe recession. But that recovery is uneven, showing up in some sectors as high prices. From The Grid’s Matthew Zeitlin:

“What really worries economists is not just inflation per se, but a situation, as in the 1970s, where prices are rising and the economy is otherwise stagnant, with little job growth or overall growth. This condition is called, naturally enough, ‘stagflation’.”

Zeitlin goes on to say:

“There’s clear evidence that stagflation is not the direction in which the economy is headed. The unemployment rate is down to 3.9%, and overall output is easily above its pre-Covid level…..it’s simply not the situation that the labor market is trending in the wrong direction.”

And the Conference Board is forecasting that 2022 GDP growth will be 3.5% and it will be 2.9% in 2023, so no worries about stagflation in our future.

Zeitlin points out that the supply chain is also a culprit. Over the course of the pandemic, Americans shifted their consumption from services to goods, especially durable goods like furniture and cars. While services still amount for the bulk of US consumer spending, shifting the balance between goods and services can have large effects:

These changes in consumer spending have caused major stress at ports, and throughout the logistics system that moves goods around. This has raised the costs of everything that needs to be shipped.

China’s Zero Covid policy is creating severe lockdowns to keep the variant from spreading ahead of the Beijing Olympics next month. This raises the prospect of more disruptions for supply chains that are based there. China remains the largest supplier of goods to the US.

The Zero Covid policy has economic consequences: Delivery times for ocean shipments from China to the US stretched to a record 80 days in December, up 85% from 2019. This also impacts the cost of shipping a 40-foot container from Asia to the US West coast: It currently costs $14,572 this week, down from a peak of more than $20,000 in September. But that’s about a tenfold increase from two years ago.

The major question facing the Federal Reserve, as well as Biden, businesses and everyday consumers who have to make decisions, is how likely is increased inflation to persist? If the inflation problem is largely being driven by how consumers and businesses have had to adjust to Covid, then while it’s severe, it may be temporary.

Nobody likes or wants higher prices. Pent-up demand and abundant cash savings are part of what’s causing inflation. The other part of the problem is labor shortages, which are resulting in large wage increases for certain occupations.

The only way to stop prices from rising is for the Fed to reduce the money supply, raising rates until demand comes down far enough to match supply. The balancing act for the Fed is to tamp down price increases, while not causing a recession.

Whether the Fed can do that remains to be seen.

Our Curious Job Market

The Daily Escape:

Cranberry harvest, Carver, MA – October 2021 photo by Sarah Stiles Cabe

Robert Reich commented to Newsweek about the unexpectedly low US employment figures, that American workers are engaged in, “the equivalent of a general strike.”

He was referencing Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) numbers that showed US employment increased 194,000 in September, nearly 300,000 jobs shy of estimates. Despite a record level of job openings and 7.7 million out of work, many employers report difficulty filling positions. From Reich:

“In reality, there’s a living wage shortage, a hazard pay shortage, a childcare shortage, a paid sick leave shortage, and a health care shortage – and American workers are demanding an end to all these shortages. Or they won’t return to work.”

So, the question is: are Americans saying “take your shit job and shove it” to corporate America?

Reich may have a point, but the current employment situation is both good and bad, and it’s a lot less political than he thinks it is. The numbers make clear that ending unemployment benefits wasn’t as effective in generating new employment as conservative politicians said it would be.

The inability to find childcare, or concerns about the safety of the available jobs, and the possibility that people saved some amount of their former emergency benefits and it’s providing them with a cushion, are all possibly contributing to the current jobs situation.

There are other factors at work. The data also show a record number of people voluntarily quitting their jobs (meaning they are not eligible for unemployment benefits). The number of quits (to work for another company offering higher wages and benefits, change careers, or stay home and take care of the kids) spiked by 242,000 people to a record of 4.27 million in August, up 19% from August 2019.

A historically high number of quits suggests a tight and competitive labor market that’s encouraging workers to switch jobs. The highest quit rate was in leisure and hospitality (6.4%), a sector that includes accommodation and food services (6.8%), retail (4.7%), and professional and business services (3.4%):

In total, 892,000 workers in accommodation and food services quit in August, equal to 6.8% of all workers in that sector. Quits are usually high in this sector. In August 2019, during that pre-Covid tight labor market, 5.1% quit.

The Labor Department also reported that there were 10.4 million job openings in August, up by 46% from August 2019. A high number of job openings pushes employers to offer higher wages, better benefits, signing bonuses, and similar enticements to help bring qualified people on board.

Despite what Robert Reich says, workers now seem to have some pricing power. When they leave a job for better wages and working conditions at another company, they create a headache for their old employer who now has to find a new employee by also offering a better deal.

But it all doesn’t quite add up. On the one hand, there are tons of jobs going begging. On the other hand, the labor force participation rate is well below pre-pandemic levels. In September, the civilian non-institutional population in the US was 261.8 million. That includes all people 16 and older who did not live in an institution, such as a prison, nursing home or long-term care facility.

Of that civilian non-institutional population, 161.3 million were participating in the labor force, meaning they either had a job or were actively seeking one during the last month. This resulted in a labor force participation rate of 61.6% in September, down slightly from the 61.7% in the prior two months, but 0.2 points higher than the 61.4% when Biden took office.

The number of Americans counted as not in the labor force, meaning they didn’t have a job and were not looking for one, rose in September to 100.4 million, up 338,000 from August.

If the job market is so good, why are so many people staying on the sidelines? That’s not consistent with a tight labor market, so there has to be something missing from the data. We do know that a big chunk of employees have taken early retirement. The number of retirees shot up by around 3.6 million during the pandemic, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. At the usual pace, that figure would have been around 1.5 million.

Are people just working off the books more now? Is it people who can’t get/afford childcare? Or is it simply a mismatch of skills and jobs? We don’t need as many people staffing tourist jobs, but we need more people working at the docks and driving trucks?

Whatever is going on, there are millions of people doing it.

Passing Manchin’s Freedom to Vote Act is Critical

The Daily Escape:

Cannon Beach, OR – September 2021 photo by Rick Berk Photography

From EJ Dionne in the WaPo:

“…the next month is make-or-break not only for President Biden and the future of American social policy but also for the right to vote and our democracy itself.”

True. He’s talking about Democrats attempting to pass both the big stimulus package without ANY support from the Republicans, and a voting rights bill that might get some support from Republicans. Dionne goes on to say: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“Failing to enact Democrats’ social policy plan would be a big problem. Failing to protect democratic rule would be catastrophic.”

The media has focused on Biden’s big social policy package, not on the voting bill. They talk almost exclusively about the bill’s cost. They ignore the bill’s initiatives: On childcare, paid leave, elder care, health care, education, and the pro-family child tax credit, all of which are popular across party lines.

Dionne’s best observation about the big spending package is this: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“Yes, the much-discussed $3.5 trillion price tag is a lot of money. But that number is based on 10 years of spending. Sharon Parrott, president of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, points out that the $3.5 trillion should be placed in the context of an anticipated gross domestic product of $288 trillion over the same period — meaning that this debate is over roughly 1.2% of the economy.”

The politics of the big deal are clear. Democrats must come together and vote as a block in the Senate, or they will fail to deliver on the change they promised in the 2020 presidential election.

The politics for a voting rights bill are less clear. As with the big deal, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WVA) has opposed the voting bills put forward by Democrats in the House. So, Senate Majority Leader Schumer asked Manchin to come up with a proposal that he could vote for and to find 10 Republicans to support it as well.

Manchin accepted that challenge and working with a group of Democrats including Sens. Klobuchar (MN), Merkley (OR) and Warnock (GA), developed a bill he supports. Marc Elias of Democracy Docket yesterday analyzed Sen. Joe Manchin’s compromise voting rights bill and found it…surprisingly acceptable:

“The Freedom to Vote Act, introduced this morning, reveals a surprisingly good voting rights bill. It reflects a sobriety and understanding of the challenges facing voters that is worthy of its lofty name. It is not just a reformulation of the prior For the People Act, but in many places, it is an improvement.”

You can read the bill here. With respect to voting by mail, the bill rolls back many of the Republicans’ disenfranchisement schemes. It forbids states from requiring notarization or witnesses to vote by mail. It provides for a free postage system for returned ballots, requires states to notify voters whose ballots are rejected due to a signature omission or mismatch and creates an easy way for voters to cure those ballots.

One of the big objections is that the new bill permits states to decide whether to require voter identification, but it broadens the list of acceptable IDs for states that require them. Under the new bill, states must allow utility bills and leases as well as student IDs and virtually any identification issued by a governmental entity to serve as an acceptable ID.

So, the challenge is whether Manchin will find 10 Republicans to support it. The big question is what will happen If he can’t: Will he and Sinema stick with their refusal to alter the filibuster and thus be complicit in the death of a bill as important to democracy today, as the original Voting Rights Act was in 1965?

Time is running out to save our democracy from a Republican Party that is rejecting it.

We learned in the past few days that our democracy was basically saved from a possible nuclear war and a coup d’état by Mark Milley, an American General with a conscience, and former VP Dan Quayle, who talked VP Mike Pence into not helping the insurrection succeed on Jan. 6.

That alone tells us what real peril we were in. It also should tell us what needs to be done to protect the country going forward.

It would be fantastic to pass both bills, but Manchin’s Freedom to Vote Act must pass, even if it means further weakening of the Filibuster. Wrongo doubts that Manchin and Sinema want to be associated in history with those who failed to stand up for democracy at the hour of maximum danger.

Within the next month, we’ll know where they stand.

Americans Die Earlier Than Europeans

The Daily Escape:

The Barber Pole, Vermillion Cliffs National Monument, AZ – May 2021 photo by Dave Coppedge

Derek Thompson in The Atlantic says that America has a death problem:

“According to a new working paper released by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Americans now die earlier than their European counterparts, no matter what age you’re looking at.”

Covid deaths are excluded from the study.

Before the 1990s, average life expectancy in the US was not much different than it was in Germany, the United Kingdom, or France. But since the 1990s, American life spans leveled off, and then fell behind those in similarly wealthy European countries.

We started hearing about America’s declining longevity when Anne Case’s and Angus Deaton’s 2015 study showed that White mortality in the US was rising. They called the new trend “deaths of despair”, caused by increased deaths by suicide, drug overdose and liver disease associated with alcohol.

Now, the bad trend has spread to all Americans:

“Compared with Europeans, American babies are more likely to die before they turn 5, American teens are more likely to die before they turn 20, and American adults are more likely to die before they turn 65. At every age, living in the United States carries a higher risk of mortality.”

The study collected data on American life spans by ethnicity and by income at the county level, and compared the data to those of European countries, locality by locality, allowing for direct comparisons. It explodes the myth about America having the best medical outcomes.

Dems Fumble Eviction Response

The Daily Escape

Mt Rainer at sunset, Paradise, WA – July 2021 photo by regulader.

There’s a political crisis brewing for Democrats in the form of the now-lapsed eviction moratorium. Progressive Democrats are angry at mainstream Dems like Pelosi and Biden for failing to extend the moratorium that expired on August 1.

The moratorium was put in place 18 months ago by the CDC. It has been popular with tenants, but many of them never caught up on their bills, and/or figured out how to access the aid promised under the moratorium.

Landlords sued to end the moratorium, and last month, the Supreme Court allowed the moratorium to remain through the end of July. But at the time, Justice Kavanaugh wrote that any further extensions would require “clear and specific congressional authorization” via new legislation.

While Kavanaugh said that a further extension of the moratorium would require Congressional action, that wasn’t the issue before the court. The issue before the court was whether to vacate a lower court stay. Their decision left the moratorium in place. When a judge expresses views beyond the specifics of the case, it is known as dicta, and is not binding.

So, the administration actually was free to extend the moratorium, and assuming the extension was later challenged in court, they could argue to the Justices that circumstances have changed. Here’s Judd Legum: (parenthesis by Wrongo)

“First, the Delta variant has made it more dangerous to allow millions of evictions to proceed voluntarily. Second, the time that Kavanaugh thought would allow for the orderly distribution of the funds (one month) has not been sufficient.“

But instead, Biden wanted Congress to act. The Congressional Democrats launched an effort to extend the ban, but the House adjourned last Friday without passing a bill. Senate Democrats were also pushing for an extension but didn’t have enough support that would lead to passage.

And now, the Biden administration is in a bind. Moderate Democrats along with Republicans, do not want to see the moratorium extended. Biden doesn’t want it extended either, so maybe we’ll see a deluge of evictions. From The Guardian:

“More than 15 million people live in households that owe as much as $20 billion to their landlords, according to the Aspen Institute. As of July 5, roughly 3.6 million people in the US said they faced eviction in the next two months, according to the US Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey.”

On Sunday, Pelosi and other House leaders said that action extending the moratorium “must come from the Administration.” They said that extending the moratorium “is a moral imperative to keep people from being put out on the street which also contributes to the public health emergency.”

But it’s hard for Democrats to hold the moral high ground when they refuse to stand on it. The House hasn’t interrupted its 7-week recess to address the issue.

Progressive Democrats are up in arms. Last weekend, Rep. Cori Bush (D-MO) led a protest on the Capitol steps to get the attention of her colleagues and the country. She wants Congress to reconvene and extend the national eviction moratorium.

What we’re seeing here is the political power of a freshman Congressperson. Bush has the attention of the media as she sits outside the Capitol. That means the administration and senior Democrats are paying attention. These kinds of political stunts rarely work, but since the Dems are in control of the government, albeit with very slim margins, everything needs to be taken seriously.

OTOH, eviction is purely a state/local process. It’s very difficult to really do much at the federal level. Also, landlords deserve to be paid, and able-bodied renters need to pay their bills. That’s how our system works.

The fact is that tenants and by extension, landlords were promised help and haven’t gotten it. The pandemic has caused a cascade of negative consequences at all levels. But $ billions of taxpayer funds are unused, and available to help landlords, if only they could avail themselves of the opportunity.

The system is set up to convey the payments to landlords, but renters must apply for the money, and too few either know about it, or have availed themselves of the program.

The White House won’t step in. The Dems in the House and Senate can’t be bothered to delay their trips to the Hamptons and the Vineyard to solve the problem. The Republicans, the so-called party of Christianity, will do nothing to help.

Who’s left? AOC and Cori Bush on the steps of the Capitol?

There are rumors that Biden is finally going to do something about this, but no details yet, as of this writing.

The Covid Recession and American Capitalism

The Daily Escape:

Upper Buttermilk Falls, Ithaca NY – June 2021 iPhone photo by Wrongo

The following chart appeared in the NYT on Tuesday in an article claiming that the recession is over. The unfortunate reality is that the COVID recession was artificially induced by a shutdown of the economy. But it may now be transitioning into a longer, systemic recession caused by poor economic policy. Take a look at the chart:

While economists say that, by traditional definitions, the Covid recession didn’t last very long, we are still down 7 million jobs from pre-pandemic levels, even while personal income is back to pre-Pandemic levels. So, how can the recession be over?

And why are lawmakers in Republican states calling for an end to unemployment benefits when so many remain out of work? Zandar says we should start by looking at Tennessee’s official job posting website:

“There are more than 250,000 jobs available in Tennessee right now, but….Only 3% of the jobs posted — about 8,500 as of Friday evening — pay $20,000 [per year] or more. The federal poverty line for a family of three is just under $22,000.”

Of the 8,500 jobs on the state of Tennessee’s official job board, about 8,250 pay $10 an hour or less, which is a poverty level wage even in Tennessee. But Tennessee’s governor Lee has decided to stop accepting CARES Act money in July, saying he didn’t want to pay people to sit at home.

As Ezra Klein said in the NYT: America doesn’t fight poverty, it runs on it.

“The American economy runs on poverty, or at least the constant threat of it. Americans like their goods cheap and their services plentiful and the two of them, together, require a sprawling labor force willing to work tough jobs at crummy wages. On the right, the barest glimmer of worker power is treated as a policy emergency, and the whip of poverty, not the lure of higher wages, is the appropriate response…”

The Wrongologist

Geopolitics, Power and Political Economy

Category: Social Safety Net