The Wrong family is back from graduation weekend, Rodâs homebrew was the best, and a good time was had by all. Except for possibly the newly minted graduates, who had to listen to recycled exhortations to put down their screens, find their own compass, etc.
Trump started infrastructure week saying we should privatize the FAA. You might see this:
British Prime Minister Mayâs snap election strategy backfired:
Wonder Woman dominated the news:
And many wondered about the Wonder Woman vs. Working Woman comparisons:
How did Comey rehabilitate himself with Democrats?
The Saudis say the Qataris support terrorism, but what about them?
âPolitics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.â âGroucho Marx
How true Groucho, how true. There is a power play underway in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and Bahrain all cut ties with Qatar:
Saudi Arabia and three other Arab countries severed diplomatic and some commercial links with Qatar Monday, a dramatic move that exposed divides among US allies in the Middle East over policy toward Iran and the role of political Islam in the region.
This is a complex situation since the US’s primary air base (al-Udeid) for striking ISIS targets is based in Qatar. We have more than 10,000 people stationed there. When Trump was in Riyadh, he boasted that the US-Qatari relationship was âextremely goodâ and that he and the Emir would be discussing the purchase of âbeautiful military equipmentâ made in the US.
That was just a few weeks ago. Yesterday, Our Orange Flake tweeted:
Just to be clear, Trump tweeted his support for a blockade of a country that hosts one of USâs largest military bases. He is trying to take credit for an avoidable and potentially dangerous regional crisis that may undermine our current effort to destroy ISIS, and might possibly even put Americans at risk.
Itâs worth remembering that the first Gulf War originated in Saddam Husseinâs misinterpreting comments by the GW Bush administration as a green light to go into Kuwait.
1. Immediately break diplomatic relations with Iran
2. Expel all Hamas members
3. Freeze bank accounts of Hamas members and stop dealing with them
4. Expel all Muslim Brotherhood members from Qatar
5. Expel anti-GCC elements
6. End support of âterrorist organizationsâ
7. Stop interfering in Egyptian affairs
8. Cease broadcasting the Al Jazeera news channel
9. Apologize to all Gulf governments for âabusesâ by Al Jazeera
10. Pledge not to carry out any actions that contradict the policies of the GCC and adhere to its charter.
If the list of demands as published are real, itâs hard to see how the Qatariâs can back down. For starters, Qatar and Iran share the worldâs largest natural gas field. It is doubtful that Qatar will break diplomatic relations with their partner.
It looks like the Chinese and Russians are urging Qatar to make some concessions â no doubt they are prepared to do so, but in effect, that list requires unconditional surrender. That will be a bridge too far for Qatar. The pace at which this situation is unraveling is astounding: Turkey is fast-tracking a bill approving troop deployment in Qatar.
Will this situation go hot? If the Qataris donât back down, then at best, this will lead to a massive disruption of LNG shipments. At worst, it could mean a regional war, aimed at regime change in Qatar.
If it were to go hot, the Qataris have no real military options. Their military is very small, and their outdated French Mirage fighters and older generation tanks are no match for what the Saudis have. Most of the Qatari soldiers are Pakistani mercenaries, who arenât stupid. They do have very good air defense systems, which means the Saudiâs would most likely shoot from a distance, causing lots of collateral damage.
The biggest question is what will the friends of the Qataris do. The Chinese, Russians and Europeans will be urging compromise, but the Iranians (and the Turks) may be angry enough to try to confront Saudi Arabia.
And the Saudis are probably thinking that they need to take action before foreign troops can make landfall in Qatar. It is difficult to see how the Saudis back down, since theyâve just put everything on the line. And if Trump keeps tweeting support for the Saudis, that will keep emotions high.
This doesnât look like it will end well.
Perhaps the Saudis are trying to goad Iran into closing the Straits of Hormuz. They (along with the Israelis and the Trump administration) have been spoiling for a fight with Iran, or to be more precise, spoiling for an excuse to drag Iran into a confrontation with the US.
The Saudis may be calculating that with Trump in charge, they finally have a chance to persuade the US to engage, assuming they can engineer the closing of the Straits as an excuse.
This shows how easily our regional clients can influence US policy when the leader of the free world has so few fixed positions.
Gouldian Finch, native to Australia â photo by Melinda Moore
(This post is an expansion of the ideas in Wrongoâs Memorial Day column)
Ms. Oh So Right suggested while we were in Europe that we stop calling it the “War on Terror” and begin calling it the “Hundred Year War.” Why? Because it seems that the Middle East has an unbreakable hold on us. Tom Friedman offers this take on the Trump doctrine:
The Trump doctrine is very simple: There are just four threats in the world: terrorists who will kill us, immigrants who will rape us or take our jobs, importers and exporters who will take our industries â and North Korea.
Last week, Trump took the decision to insert the US into what promises to be a never-ending war between the Sunni and the Shia for control of the ME. Rather than try to keep a balanced political position between these two religions, Trump has tilted America towards the Sunnis. This from Paul Mulshine:
The pivotal moment on his foreign trip came when Trump cuddled up to Saudi Arabia, a country he accused of “paying ISIS” back when he was campaigning for the presidency.
ISIS is of course, a Sunni group. So is al Qaeda. And Saudi Arabia is at the center of the Sunni universe.
There was a peaceful and democratic change of power in the ME while Trump was away. It was the re-election of Hassan Rouhani in Iran. In that contest, 41.2 million voters, or 73% of the Iranian electorate, turned out to vote. So who did Trump lash out at during his speech in Riyadh? Not Saudi Arabia, but Iran:
From Lebanon to Iraq to Yemen, Iran funds, arms, and trains terrorists, militias, and other extremist groups that spread destruction and chaos across the region…
This ignores the fact that Saudi Arabia funds more terror than does Iran, and it isnât a democracy. This despite the fact that we share with the Iranians the goal of ousting ISIS from Syria. Yet, on May 18, US planes attacked a convoy of Syrian Army forces that included Iranian militias, and probably a few Russian advisers.
Back when Trump appointed Secretary of Defense James Mattis and National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster, there was some hope that we might become more calculated in our involvement in the region. But both individuals seem to be hot to go to war with Iran. The fear is that the Trump administration will adopt the “on to Tehran” strategy the people around George W. Bush endorsed back when it seemed that Bushâs Iraq invasion had succeeded.
This is where we start getting into “Hundred Years’ War” territory. (The Hundred Years’ War was a series of conflicts waged from 1337 to 1453 by the House of Plantagenet, rulers of England, against the House of Valois, rulers of France, over the succession of the French throne.)
This is why Wrongo thinks we must re-instate the draft. Let America debate about why Trump and the neo-cons think a war with Iran is a good idea. Let them explain to draft-age kids and their parents why American should get involved in a civil war between the Shia and the Sunni.
Why will this keep us safe?
Trump is embarking on a hard-line anti-Iranian journey, precisely when Iranians re-elected a moderate to lead their country. Trump risks making a mistake that would be similar to GW Bushâs. Bush’s decision to invade Iraq and topple Saddam Hussein permitted the Iranian Shia majority to link up with the Iraqi Shia majority, thus giving the Iranians the first step towards creating the “Shia Crescent.”
If Trump takes an aggressive attitude toward Tehran, he’ll be playing into the hands of the Iranian hard-liners. Trump campaigned at least in part, on not repeating Bushâs ME mistakes. But now he is aligning himself with the Sunnis, who plan to keep the Syrian civil war going for at least another generation (25 years).
What happens then?
We’ll still have 58 years to figure it out.
Letâs close with a tune. Here are Todd Rundgren and Donald Fagan doing âTin Foil Hatâ from Toddâs new album âWhite Knightâ. Itâs a song about Donald Trump:
Those who read the Wrongologist in email can view the video here.
In Saudi Arabia, The LA Times’ Molly Hennessy-Fiske reports that Donald Trump is now called âAbu Ivankaâ. Abu means âthe father ofâ. Â Apparently Saudi Arabia is fascinated with Ivanka Trump, and thus, The Donald gets a new title.
The Saudi Pipeline:
In his speech, Trump called Saudi Arabia the country that contributes more to peace than any other Muslim country. Really? The Saudis?
Trump got the arms deal with Saudi Arabia. Now, he plans to sell off half the US oil reserve so we can once again be dependent on OPEC oil:
Trump is impressed by Wailing Wall:
When Donny visited the Pope, he received a copy of the Popeâs Climate Encyclical:
His Assholiness gives the Pope a religious education:
Last Thursday, Iran, Russia and Turkey signed a memorandum on the creation of âde-escalationâ zones in Syria. This represents the beginning of a new phase in the Syrian civil war. If the agreement and the cease-fires it envisions hold up, it could become a de facto partition of the country into zones of influence, some based on religious sect, and a recognition that at this point, neither the regime nor the rebels can win this conflict.
A glance at the placement of the proposed “de-escalation zones” shows that they are jihadi dominated areas under the protection and support of foreign sponsors; Saudi Arabia, Israel, Turkey, the Gulf States and possibly, the US.
The text of the agreement says the de-escalation zones allow for an improvement of the humanitarian situation and to âcreate favorable conditions to advance a political settlement of the conflict.â In the zones mapped out under the agreement, the use of weapons, including âaerial assets, shall be ceased.â
The agreement was not signed by the Syrian regime, which is interesting. This means that Iran, Turkey and Russia are the guarantors of the facts on the ground post-agreement, and it shifts the conflict from one between the regime and the various opposition rebel groups, to one between the powerful foreign proxies that have sent weapons and in some cases, their armed forces into the country.
The US was not a direct participant in the negotiations for the agreement, but was present as an observer during the discussions. US Secretary of State Tillerson and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, stayed in touch during the discussions.
The agreement shows the degree to which Russia has outmaneuvered the US and is dictating terms in Syria. This sends a clear message to Trump that while the Americans are putting down roots in northeast Syria with the Kurdish YPG, the US role is not formally recognized by Turkey, Iran or Russia despite the fact that the area is de facto under US protection.
It remains to be seen if this agreement is the beginning of the map for a new Syria or just breathing space before the next round of war.
This is a gift for Donald Trump. He consistently called for safe zones while campaigning, so he can easily support this move. Also, Putin and Trump seem to be tacitly co-operating to keep Turkey out of parts of northern Syria. A question is whether the US will go along with the plan. The US plans to stay in Syria to finish off ISIS, while the other powers prefer to finish off the rebels fighting the Assad regime first.
Despite that, ISIS still controls much of the land mass of Syria, albeit not its population centers.
The answer may depend on how much the White House wants to take at least some of the credit for bringing peace to Syria, and Thursdayâs agreement may be the best shot Americaâs got.
Clearly, Putin is thinking in terms of a “grand strategy”, where the Syria situation is one of a number of critical elements of a possible US-Russia relationship. If the US-Russia relationship can be genuinely reset in a better direction, then it will impact many fronts: Perhaps Putin can get Trump to agree to Putinâs land grab in Crimea and the Donbass region of Ukraine. Perhaps they can work together to end the civil war in Syria, defeating ISIS along the way.
Notably, when Tillerson and Lavrov spoke last week, Syria and North Korea were two topics on their agenda. Maybe Russia could prove to be a more important factor in the North Korea situation than most realize.
So wake up Trump administration! Take that baby step forward by supporting the de-escalation agreement. If it fails, the other guys are to blame. If it succeeds in stabilizing the refugee situation while leading to a political solution in Syria, the credit will partially accrue to America. To help them wake up, here are the Rolling Stones with âStart Me Upâ from their 1981 album âTattoo Youâ:
Those who read the Wrongologist in email can view the video here.
Bombs Away! Another week of American Trumpceptionalism is in the books. Dropping the largest non-nuclear bomb ever used in combat left 36 ISIS fighters dead in a tunnel complex in Afghanistan. The so-called Massive Ordinance Air Blast bomb (MOAB) used 11 tons of explosives in one shot. One MOAB costs about $16 million, and 20 have been produced. $16 million for 36 ISIS fighters.
Thatâs $444.4k per dead fighter if you are keeping score.
The MOAB looks mostly like another âboys and their toysâ deal. It is hard to see this kind of weapon doing much against the Taliban or ISIS in Afghanistan. It seems more likely that our military has run out of better ideas.
We are in the final countdown to Tax Day on April 18th. Tax preparation at the Mansion of Wrong is the reason for the skimpy column production this week. By the way: about 22% of taxpayers wait until the last two weeks before the deadline to file.
So you and Wrongo need a Soother today at least as much as we did last week, and todayâs Soother is a feel good story from Croatia, where a pair of Storks have become a national obsession. From the Daily Mail:
A stork has melted hearts in Croatia by flying to the same rooftop every year for 14 years â to be reunited with its crippled partner. The faithful bird, called Klepetan, has returned once again to the village of Slavonski Brod in east Croatia after a 5,000 mile migration. He spends his winters alone in South Africa because his disabled partner Malena cannot fly properly after being shot by a hunter in 1993. Malena had been found lying by the side the road by schoolteacher Stjepan Vokic, who fixed her wing and kept her in his home for years before helping her to build a nest on his roof. After placing her there, she was spotted by Klepetan 14 years ago. And now every year they are reunited in the spring. Klepetan keeps a very strict timetable, usually arriving back at the same time on the same day in March to be welcomed by locals.
Here is Klepetanâs flight plan:
Klepetan didnât arrive on time this year, but things worked out for the love birds:
But this year he was running six days late, causing panic among local media and fans of the stork couple. Such is the popularity of the pair that there is even a live feed on the main square in the capital Zagreb showing the two storks. There was huge excitement when stork-watchers saw what they thought was Klepetan circling over the nest, and then coming in to land. But the new arrival turned out to be a different stork that was attempting to woo Malena. She quickly attacked him and drove him off and continued to wait for Klepetan. Stjepan Vokic, whose roof the couple nest on, said: âShe was pretty clear about the message, I doubt he will be back again.â Vokic has taken care of Malena since she was first injured by hunters and says that she â like her partner â is now part of the family.
But heâs back, and on the case! They are raising this yearâs brood of little storks:
And what about Malena in the winter? She goes indoors:
During the winter, Vokic keeps her inside the house, and then lets her go to the roof each spring where she patiently waits for her partner. This year, Malena made a rare flight and the couple were reportedly inseparable for hours. She does have the ability to make very short flights but her wing has not healed well enough for her to make the trip to Africa, or even to properly feed herself. Every summer, the pair bring up chicks, with Klepetan leading their flying lessons in preparation for the trip south in summer. The oldest recorded living stork was 39. Locals are hopeful the coupleâs long relationship will continue for years to come.
This is proof that some animals live their lives by a higher moral code than some humans.
Here is Fleetwood Macâs âWish You Were Hereâ, a 2016 remastered version of the song from 1982, a song the storks might sing, if they could play guitar:
Those who read the Wrongologist in email can view the video here.
Takeaway Lyric:
There’s distance between us
And you’re on my mind
As I lay here in the darkness
I can find no peace inside
I wish you were here holding me tight
If I had you near it would make it alright
I wish you were here
‘Cause I feel like a child tonight
Wildflowers in the Temblor Range, CA. April 2017 photo by Robyn Beck
We still have little hard evidence proving that Syria gassed its own people. Much like Iraq in 2003, we have made a military move that feels great emotionally, but that isnât built on a solid foundation of fact. That the Syrian government deliberately used chemical weapons to bomb its civilians became absolute truth in US media in less than 24 hours.
And once that tidal wave of American war frenzy starts rolling, questioning the casus belli is not permitted. Wanting conclusive evidence before commencing military action will get you vilified, denounced as a sympathizer with Americaâs enemies.
When Trump launched the tomahawks, most in the mainstream media suddenly fawned all over him. Margret Sullivan in the WaPo quoted several, starting with CNNâs Fareed Zakaria:
I think Donald Trump became president of the United States last night…
Sullivan noted that the NYT’s piece failed to even mention that Trump is keeping refugees from the Syrian war, even children, out of the US. Victims of chemical weapons were âbeautiful babiesâ to Trump at his news conference, while the children trying to flee such violence require âextreme vettingâ and face an indefinite refugee ban. And this from the WSJâs Bret Stephens, previously a Trump critic:
 President Trump has done the right thing and I salute him for it…Now destroy the Assad regime for good.
Perhaps the worst was MSNBCâs Brian Williams, who used the word âbeautifulâ three times when discussing the tomahawk missile launches. He quoted a Leonard Cohen lyric (from First We Take Manhattan): I am guided by the beauty of our weapons â without apparent irony:
We see these beautiful pictures at night from the decks of these two US Navy vessels in the eastern Mediterranean…I am tempted to quote the great Leonard Cohen: âI am guided by the beauty of our weapons.â…They are beautiful pictures of fearsome armaments making what is for them what is a brief flight over to this airfield…
Williams might have focused on: What did they hit? What are the strategic consequences?
Many of these same media pukes were continuously expressing doubts about Trumpâs judgment since before his election. But, when he orders the use of force, his judgment needs to be questioned by them more than ever. One reason that the US so easily resorts to the use of force abroad is that the very people that should be the first to question the rationale for a presidential military decision are instead among the first to cheer it and celebrate it.
We see groupthink most of the time when the American news media watches an administration step up to the brink of war. This was true in the run-up to the Iraq invasion in 2003, the start of our longest military disaster.
Journalists and pundits need to keep virtues like skepticism, facts on the ground, and context fixed firmly in their minds. They should not be like Brian Williams, focused on spectacular images in the night sky, without contemplating their deadly effect.
For example, how can the media NOT ask how Trump, a man with little outward empathy, can change in a minute, suddenly becoming a caring individual about beautiful Syrian babies? Or, how in a period of 24 hours, Trump managed to flip-flop 180 degrees on a position about Syria that he’s held for years?
Why is the media leading the cheers on Syria, but keeping silent about Yemen?
Why are there never pictures of âbeautifulâdead babies after our drone strikes go awry?
Time for the main stream media to wake up and do their jobs in an old school way. To help them wake up, here is Brian Williamsâs favorite lyricist, Leonard Cohen, with âFirst We Take Manhattanâ:
Those who read the Wrongologist in email can view the video here.
Takeaway Lyric:
They sentenced me to twenty years of boredom
For trying to change the system from within
I’m coming now, I’m coming to reward them
First we take Manhattan, then we take Berlin
I’m guided by a signal in the heavens
I’m guided by this birthmark on my skin
I’m guided by the beauty of our weapons
First we take Manhattan, then we take Berlin
There are two inescapable conclusions in the aftermath of Trumpâs missile strikes in Syria. First, the US can no longer focus only on destroying ISIS. Now, we are in the position of having to also burn calories dealing with the fallout from those strikes with Russia, Syria and Iran.
Second, we can no longer keep our previous distance vis-Ă -vis the Syrian civil war separate from our relations with Russia. Before Trumpâs Tomahawking, it was possible to argue that Russiaâs involvement in Syria was peripheral to our goals in Syria, and certainly not central to overall US/Russian relations. Now, the US has put at risk the limited cooperation we have had with Russian in Syria regarding ISIS.
And for what? Apparently, Trumpâs missile strikes didnât change much on the ground in Syria. In fact, the Syrian air force just used the same air strip that we blasted with 60 tomahawk missiles (at the cost of $1million a copy) to again bomb the same city that suffered the sarin attack.
Doubtless, Trump will call this a âvictoryâ but, if you use $60 million to disable an airbase, shouldnât it be disabled? Again, the question is: What was Trump trying to accomplish? He has taken a dangerous situation, and seemingly made it more dangerous. To Wrongo, it looks like Trump got nearly nothing from his attack. Does this remind anyone of Trumpâs attack on Yemen?
Since the Syrian fly-boys are back in the air, bombing the SAME city, Trump looks like a fool. Want to bet that he will feel the need to correct that impression? On to Cartoons!
Who/What was Trump aiming his tomahawks at?
We tipped off Putin that the tomahawks were coming:
Trump meets with Chinaâs Xi and learns something:
Negotiations with Xi werenât as easy as Trump thought:
Mitch McConnell, wrecker extraordinaire:
Invoking the nuclear option made things much easier for the GOP:
Ready, Fire, Aim! Arenât you glad we didnât elect Hillary, the neo con warmonger? From Booman:
Our Bush Era PTSD has been reactivated in a big way. While I offered a limited and cautious and conditional defense of President Trumpâs decision to authorize the strikes against Syria, I was at pains to note that itâs very important that the administration provide convincing evidence that the Assad regime is responsible for the sarin attack that served as the predicate for the missile launch.
Russia and Syria have denied that they are behind the Syrian Chemical Weapons (CW) attack. We know there was an attack, and that some kind of chemical was used. The media are saying it was sarin gas.
They also, nearly unanimously, say it is the fault of the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad. Earlier in the week, both US Foreign Secretary Rex Tillerson and US UN envoy Nikki Haley said removing Assad was no longer a priority in US Middle-East policy.
Now, Assad has to go.
Most news outlets and pundits support Donald Trumpâs spanking of the Assad government, but what is Trumpâs strategy? Enforcing norms against the use of chemical weapons (CW) is a good thing. But itâs hard to see how Thursdayâs all-out reversal of our level of engagement in the Syrian civil war is justified by the use of CW, particularly since it has been used several times before in Syria, and since it brings with it many other risks/issues, like a potential military confrontation with Russia and Iran.
After Thursdayâs Tomahawk missile attack, we are now simultaneously confronting the two strongest factions in the Syrian civil war, Assadâs army and ISIS. While Trump and the MSM are going bananas about the horrors of CW, no one was going bananas last week, or in all the prior weeks, about the daily death count of Syrian children who were collateral damage in the countryâs civil war.
The attack took place in the midst of President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping This was where one of the hottest topics was what to do about North Korea’s continuing long-range missile tests and its work on completing a deliverable nuclear warhead.
Clearly there were implicit messages for both North Korea and China in the Syrian attack. This has something to do with Syria, and a lot to do with the Chinese. Military types would tell us that Trump firing 59 cruise missiles to take out an airfield is overkill.
But, it will not be lost on Xi that 50+cruise missiles could also devastate any of those new atoll airfields cropping up in the South China Sea. Donald Trump just proved to Xi that he is a man with 4,000+ nuclear weapons at this disposal and a military that follows orders. It looks to Wrongo like Xi and Putin now have a giant incentive to become better allies, and invite Iran to the party.
Once again, Wrongo thinks that the best option for the US would be to concentrate on humanitarian efforts and helping refugees. And to work with Russia and Syriaâs other allies to end the threat from ISIS in the greater Middle East.
Unfortunately, that also admits there is a limitation on the USâs ability to control events solely based on its military strength. Despite its flaws, if thereâs no reason to believe any strategy will improve results, then the best course is inaction. That was Obamaâs approach.
Itâs just not true that we âMust Do Somethingâ. People think that if we Do Something, then nothing bad that subsequently happens is really our fault, because AT LEAST WE DID SOMETHING. Whereas if we do nothing, then every bad thing that subsequently happens is our fault.
Thanks, Obama.
We really donât have to do anything. The problem is that by following the do-nothing strategy, America doesnât get to be the biggest, baddest ass on the Middle East Street.
Yes, if we do nothing, lots of people will die, but that doesnât exactly distinguish it from what will happen anyway. Our inaction wonât transfer blame for those deaths onto us, any more than an action to take out Assad will shift it from us.
Who knew running the worldâs superpower was so complicated? Certainly, not someone who said âI alone can fix itâ.
(Aleppo’s Umayyad mosque, photographed before the war, in 2009)
Joshua Landis edits a blog called âSyria Commentâ, and his last post was about Trump’s strategy for taking Raqqa from ISIS. He thinks allying with Turkey at the expense of the Kurds is a mistake.
We are watching a continuation of the policy that predates the Trump presidency, the balkanization of Syria by alternative means…Trumpâs âA Teamâ of generals seem to have fallen back on the old plan.
Landis thinks that Trump is planning to give the Turks free hand in taking Raqqa and most likely all of the Euphrates Valley. Turkey has proposed taking Raqqa from the north at Tel Abyad. The map below points out the geography:
Tel Abyad is the large black dot near the top of the map. This approach would drive through the middle of the Kurdish region (the purple shaded area above), cutting it in two. This splitting of the Kurdish territory is the main reason Turkey has offered to take Raqqa. From Landis:
Turkey hopes to establish its Arab proxies in a new âEuphrates stateâ in eastern Syria. This would partition Syria into three states: a western Assad-ruled state; an eastern Turkish and Sunni Arab rebel-ruled state, and a northern Kurdish state.
If the US allows Turkey to do this, it will lose the Kurds as allies in the attack on Raqqa, or in any other part of ISIS territory. Turkey says it is the only way that they can participate, because Assadâs army has already taken territory east of Aleppo, which has cut off Turkeyâs access to Raqqa via al-Bab. Landis asks:
Why are the Kurds willing to take Raqqa even though they do not have territorial interests in and around Raqqa? They are investing in their relationship with the US. They assume that it will serve them well over the long run when it comes to their political aspirations.
A major issue with following Turkeyâs plan is that they have dangerous Islamic fundamentalist allies. Turkeyâs Arab rebel allies include Ahrar al-Sham, (similar to the Taliban, and adamantly opposed to the US). If the Turkey/Ahrar coalition rules the Euphrates post-ISIS, it will become a haven for Salafists and al-Qaidaâs coalition.
For the past five years, Turkey has teamed with al-Qaidaâs forces in Syria. It allowed them to mass inside Turkey in 2013. Turkey has no problem with them being part of its Arab force, since their strategy is to use the Salafists as proxies in thwarting Kurdish regional ambitions. More from Landis:
These…are the reasons that American generals do not want to work with Turkey. They donât trust it, both because it wants to attack our Kurdish allies and because it is soft on al-Qaida-like rebel groups.
Our generals donât fully trust this NATO partner to act in Americaâs interest!
Whatâs more, there is a likelihood that Iran, Russia, Syria, and Iraq would move against a Turkey-led Sunni land grab. They will not allow a Sunni rebel enclave in the middle of their spheres of influence. Landis: (brackets by the Wrongologist)
The US would [then] be expected to side with Turkey and the Sunni rebels in a long and escalating war against the Shiites. I think this is a swamp waiting to suck the USÂ into its malodorous depths.
For more than 15 years, we have been engaged in a war in the Middle East. Now, the Pentagon is planning to send another 1, 000 troops to Syria in the coming weeks. This is indeed an endless war.
Letâs get ISIS, but we shouldnât be teaming solely with the Turks in the effort to destroy ISIS. The great Orange negotiator should stand up to the Turks on this.
Now for some Syrian music. Here is Refugees of Rap with their song, âHaramâ (“Forbidden” in Arabic):
Those who read the Wrongologist in email can view the video here.
Sample Lyrics (translated):
Came out of the house
I smelled gunpowder
Voices from the minarets
Say go back to your houses
Shells on the neighborhoods come down like rain
I felt more scared, I felt a sense of danger
I completed my way and approaching death to me more and more
Average people say Allahu Akbar
I saw the neighborhood; neighborhood was red in color
The smell of blood and body parts in front of me scatter
I ran to help my friend was injured
Hospitals in dire need of blood donation and mosques shouting
Walls in the streets become white in color
