Category: Voting Rights

A Deep Dive Into the PBS/Marist Poll

The Daily Escape:

Ashuelot River, Keene NH – January 2022 photo by Betsy Zimmerli

Much has been said about the January 6 attempted coup at the US Capitol and the reaction to it by Americans. Let’s take a dive into two of the key findings in the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll survey that was published on Jan. 3, 2022. Marist surveyed 1,400 adults between December 11th and December 13th, 2021, of which 1,310 were registered voters.

When asked about whether the Select Congressional Committee’s hearings to investigate the events at the US Capitol on January 6th is appropriate, a 62% majority of Americans believe it is. Here’s the question that was asked:

“A Select Congressional Committee is holding hearings to investigate the events at the U.S. Capitol on January 6th. Based on what you have seen or heard, which comes closer to your view?”

Here are the results:

That 35% believe the Committee’s work is a witch hunt is consistent with most findings where Republicans are forced to choose between mutually exclusive answers, and one answer clearly doesn’t support their Party’s viewpoint. They are in the clear minority.

A second question, asking whether what happened on Jan. 6 at the Capitol was an insurrection, a protest, or an unfortunate event? The answers were all over the map. Here is the question asked in the survey:

“When it comes to the events on January 6th, when a crowd entered the Capitol Building in Washington, DC, and disrupted the election certification process, which of the following best reflects your thoughts?”

Overall, 49% of Americans called it an insurrection, while 25% believed “it was a political protest protected under the first amendment.” Another 19% said “it was an unfortunate event but it’s in the past, so no need to worry about it anymore.”

This shows how divided politically we are: 49% call it an insurrection while 44% say it wasn’t something to be concerned about.

Democrats (89%) overwhelmingly consider it to be an insurrection while a plurality of Republicans (45%) say it was a political protest. And an additional 35% of Republicans think it was unfortunate but is not something we need to worry about in the future.

Here are the percentages of those demographic groups that agreed with the idea that “It was an insurrection and a threat to democracy”:

Greater than 50%:

95% of Biden supporters

89% of Democrats

66% of college graduates

61% of people who live in the Northeast

61% of big city residents

59% of Gen Z/Millennials

56% of suburban residents

53% of women

52% of nonwhites

51% of small city residents

50% of people who live in the West

Less than 50%:

49% of whites

49% of older Americans (75-plus)

48% of Boomers

47% of people who live in the South

45% of men

44% of people who live in the Midwest

43% of small town residents

42% of Latinos

39% of those without a college degree

39% of Gen Xers

31% of rural residents

10% of Republicans

8% of Trump supporters

Wrongo finds reason to be optimistic in these results. The fact that 62% of Americans think that the work of the Select Committee is appropriate indicates that their findings will be broadly accepted by voters. Let’s hope they publish them soon.

It is also an optimistic finding that 89% of Democrats, and 43% of independents define the events of Jan. 6 as an insurrection. Suburban voters and white college educated women – two voting blocs that supported Biden are also closely aligned with Democrats on those feelings.

The poll also found that 53% of Americans still say Trump was at fault for what happened at the Capitol. This  view has softened since Marist polled it on January 7, 2021, when 63% of Americans said they blamed Trump. That’s consistent with the continuing Right wing narrative about Jan. 6, saying that it was really just protected speech.

Overall, there are two necessary steps to securing our democracy.

First, what comes out of the investigative work by the DOJ and the House Select Committee will be accepted by the majority of Americans. That means any indictments of politicians that come from either will be broadly supported.

Second, the Congress needs to legislate to ensure that all votes are counted and that those counts are reflected fairly in the results in every state and cannot changed by partisan election officials. That is an outcome that Pelosi and Schumer must deliver in the first half of 2022.

We have to hope that both can happen before the November mid-terms.

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Saving The Republic By Destroying It

The Daily Escape:

New Year’s Day, Pike National Forest, near Colorado Springs, CO – January 2022 photo by Daniel Forster

 

“It’s not the voting that’s democracy; it’s the counting.” – Tom Stoppard

Tomorrow we will observe the anniversary of the attempted coup at the US Capitol. For the most part, in response, America will do nothing. The Atlantic’s Barton Gellman wrote last month,

“Trump and his party have convinced a dauntingly large number of Americans that the essential workings of democracy are corrupt, that made-up claims of fraud are true, that only cheating can thwart their victory at the polls, that tyranny has usurped their government, and that violence is a legitimate response.”

There are tens of millions of Americans who believe that the 2020 election was magically stolen from Trump, and tens of millions who believe violence is the answer to resolving that problem. A new NPR/Ipsos poll finds that 64% of Americans believe US democracy is “in crisis and at risk of failing.”

The poll found one-third of Trump voters say the attack on the Capitol was actually carried out by opponents of Donald Trump, including Antifa and government agents, a baseless conspiracy theory that has been promoted by conservative media ever since the attack, even though it has been debunked.

Is the US careening toward a second civil war? Republicans seem to be willing to destroy the Republic to save it.

Stephen Marche published an excerpt from his new book in the Guardian. He points out that the Right has recognized that the American political system is in collapse, and it has a plan: violence and solidarity with far-right factions that want to subvert the vote-counting process.

Marche says that two things are happening at the same time. The American Right has abandoned its faith in government. The American Left has been slower on the uptake, but they are starting to figure out that the American political system which we call a democracy is less deserving of the name as each year passes.

So, the Right is already preparing for a breakdown of law and order. They’re preparing because they’re the ones fomenting the breakdown.

A University of Virginia analysis of census projections shows that by 2040, 30% of the population will control 68% of the Senate, and eight states will contain half of the US population.

The conservative project to achieve permanent minority rule long precedes Trump’s efforts to nullify the election in 2020. It’s being further codified into law in states across the country. The Senate’s built-in malapportionment gives advantages overwhelmingly to white, non-college educated voters. The federal system as constituted no longer represents the will of the majority of the American people.

This shouldn’t surprise you, since we continually elect people uncommitted to making government work. And surprise, it doesn’t. VOX’s Zach Beauchamp observes:

“America’s dysfunction stems, in large part, from an outdated political system that creates incentives for intense partisan conflict and legislative gridlock. That system may well be near the point of collapse. Reform is certainly a possibility. But the most meaningful changes to our system have been won only after bloodshed and struggle, on the fields of Gettysburg and in the streets of Birmingham. It is possible, maybe even likely, that America will not be able to veer from its dangerous path absent more eruptions and upheavals — that things will get worse before they get better.”

Can this be avoided? Unclear. The Democrats have done an excellent job in ensuring they have little bench strength. Who do they have who is capable of succeeding Biden?

The Republicans have lobotomized their talent base. Trump created an environment where any number of lunatics can claim followers that vaguely fit under the Republican banner, while the mainstream Right fails to control either the Party or its narrative.

It’s still possible for America to implement a modern electoral system, restore the legitimacy of the courts, reform its police forces, and alter its tax code to address inequality. All of these changes are possible.

However, we can’t simply hope that everything will work out; it won’t. If democracy is to survive, the US must start over. It must rediscover its revolutionary spirit. But who’s willing to do that? We seem to feel that it’s futile to expect that we can change anything.

The upshot is that people are angry. Many are checking out, no longer caring about what happens. How will we save the American project if we aren’t willing to fight for it?

What happens if it no longer matters who is running for president next time around?

We may find out.

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Monday Wake Up Call – January 3, 2022

The Daily Escape:

Nathrop , CO – December 2021 photo by Haji Mahmood

“And now we welcome the new year, full of things that have never been” – Rainer Maria Rilke

Wrongo hasn’t published predictions since 2018, because while it became increasingly hard to imagine that things would get worse, every year they did. Every year. It’s his fervent hope that despite evidence, things won’t turn out to be even more terrible in 2022.

This year, maybe we should avoid saying “Happy New Year!” in favor of “Hopeful New Year.” Let’s simply resist saying “We’re doomed!”, because there’s always reason for hope, even in the darkest times.

Pandemics do not go on forever. Even before vaccinations, eventually everyone who was susceptible was infected. Covid won’t be any different. Ever so slowly, more people will get vaccinated, and better treatments will be found. We should remain hopeful that 2022 will see the pandemic fade.

Our economy is humming along. We have a normal President who displays empathy and common decency, and (rarely) zero common sense. But we’re going to elect a new House in ten months, and most polls show the forecasted outcome to be Republicans in control.

If that happens, any progress made so far in the post-Trump era will end. If we are to avoid that, the Democratic Party will need more than a fresh coat of paint and a kitchen renovation, because the Party looks a lot like grandma’s house just before it goes on the market.

That doesn’t leave a lot of time for a makeover. The NYT said it best in its “Every Day Is Jan. 6 Now” editorial:

“Jan. 6 is not in the past; it is every day….It is regular citizens who threaten election officials and other public servants, who ask, “When can we use the guns?” and who vow to murder politicians who dare to vote their conscience. It is Republican lawmakers scrambling to make it harder for people to vote and easier to subvert their will if they do. It is Donald Trump who continues to stoke the flames of conflict with his rampant lies and limitless resentments and whose twisted version of reality still dominates one of the nation’s two major political parties.”

The violence every American witnessed at the Capitol one year ago demonstrated the will of Republicans to take over our democracy. And while the select committee in the House promises a detailed accounting and, presumably, some sort of referral for action to the DOJ, time is short.

Time is short for all of us.

In state after Republican-controlled state, efforts continue to put in place, under cover of law, mechanisms for Republicans to overturn elections results not to their liking.

So, the Capitol riot is continuing in a bloodless, legalized form that no police officer can arrest and that no prosecutor can try in court. The fact that half of Americans watched Jan 6 in real time and have concluded that it was a legitimate effort to prevent Biden’s election and to restore Trump to office suggests that the decades-long project of the Right wing is nearly complete, unless we intervene. More from the NYT:

“Democrats aren’t helpless, either. They hold unified power in Washington, for the last time in what may be a long time. Yet they have so far failed to confront the urgency of this moment — unwilling or unable to take action to protect elections from subversion and sabotage.”

That means Democrats must shelve Build Back Better and throw everything they have at voting rights. The mealy mouth discussion by Sens. Manchin and Sinema about what might happen if the filibuster was suspended, is an artful dodge when the threat to democracy is so clear today.

Temporarily suspending the filibuster is not radical; standing on the sidelines and not doing anything to stop Republicans from ending our democracy is radical.

Time to wake up America! Democrats need to force the issue on their leaders. Wrongo’s view is “no money until Voting Rights are passed”. That means zero donations between here and the mid-terms unless Democrats act on voting rights. It means Wrongo replies to every tweet and email solicitation with that message.

To help the Democratic Party wake up, here’s “Wake Up Everybody”, originally by Harold Melvin and The Bluenotes, featuring Teddy Pendergrass. Teddy left the group for his solo career after this album.

Today we listen and watch John Legend’s 2010 cover of the tune, backed by Questlove and the Roots Band along with Melanie Fiona, and Common. The song is as strong today as it was 47 years ago when it was released:

Sample Lyric:

The world won’t get no better
If we just let it be
The world won’t get no better
We gotta change it, yeah, just you and me

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Whose Side Are You On?

The Daily Escape:

Capitol Reef NP -December 2021 photo by Jonathan Vandervoorde

Shouldn’t we be on the side of democracy? Georgia’s Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock says yes. He spoke in the Senate on Tuesday, and what he said is consistent with Wrongo’s thinking.

Warnock asked why the Senate could suspend its rules in order to pass an increase in the debt ceiling by a simple majority but couldn’t do the same thing for something as critical to our democracy as voting rights. From Warnock:

“Before we left Washington last week, we in this chamber made a change in the Senate’s rules in order to push forward something that all of us think is important. We set the stage to raise the nation’s debt ceiling, and yet as we cast that vote to begin addressing the debt ceiling, this same chamber is allowing the ceiling of our democracy to crash in around us….Be very clear, last week we changed the rules of the Senate. To address another important issue, the economy. This is a step, a change in the Senate rules we haven’t been willing to take to save our broken democracy, but one that a bipartisan majority of this chamber thought was necessary in order to keep our economy strong.”

The Jan. 6 attempted coup and the many state anti-voting laws passed by Republicans subsequent to that, come from the same poisonous well: A growing anti-democratic movement of fellow travelers including American conservatives, Right-wing extremists, and political entrepreneurs on the Right who have made the Republican Party their political vehicle.

They’re close to winning in the 2022 mid-terms. If the Senate adjourns without acting on voter suppression, it will help them get there. Buzzfeed reports that in some states, Republicans are going door-to-door in order to “check” to make sure there aren’t any illegal voters in your home:

“Individual election deniers and grassroots groups are canvassing for election fraud in states…including New Hampshire, Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Utah, and Nebraska.”

They’re targeting registered Democrat voters. It’s part of a broader effort by Trump supporters and Republican Party leaders to cast doubt on our elections going forward. In Colorado, a member of the Three Percenter militant group is helping lead the canvassing effort. According to the Colorado Times Recorder, that member suggested volunteers carry firearms to provide security for the group as they went door-to-door.

Let’s call this what it is: Voter intimidation on a multi-state scale. It’s a message that if you are a registered Democrat, the Trump cultists know who you are, and where you live. This intimidation should be illegal, but it’s not.

And it’s another part of the problem that the Senate needs to address right now.

The Democrats have what amounts to less-than-a-majority in the Senate in favor of suspending the filibuster rules for voting rights. In June, Majority Leader Schumer outsourced an effort to garner a filibuster-proof majority on voting rights to Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WVA), but Manchin’s effort failed.

Despite that, Schumer was able to finesse the filibuster to act without Republican votes to increase the debt ceiling. He was also able to corral all Democratic Senators, including Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema, who are on the record as being against any change in the filibuster rules.

But voting rights, the most fundamental of all Democratic principles, are being sacrificed to the crusty parliamentary rule that these same two Democrats have so far refused to consider. This week, Schumer appointed a group of Democratic senators, who lead the talks on voting rights legislation, to spearhead discussions with Joe Manchin about how to change the Senate rules. They met with Manchin on Tuesday.

It’s time for Sen. Schumer to wrestle Manchin and Sinema to the ground, and make them vote to suspend the filibuster rules a second time.

Barton Gellman, who wrote a recent Atlantic magazine article that Wrongo quoted last week, recently told Terry Gross of NPR:

“This is, I believe, a democratic emergency, and that without very strong and systematic pushback from protectors of democracy, we’re going to lose something that we can’t afford to lose about the way we run elections.”

We’re facing a crisis. Biden and all Democrats have to make this a “whose side are you on?” issue for Washington politicians and for voters everywhere.

Warnock has a powerful message. He’s the one Democrat willing to speak about the elephant in the room. Watch his speech:

 

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Sunday Cartoon Blogging – December 12, 2021

Despite saying that there wouldn’t be Sunday cartoons, it turned out that Wrongo found some free time to put them together. Let’s start by learning more about January 6. Hugo Lowell, Congressional reporter for the Guardian, found some disturbing news:

The Guardian reports that the PowerPoint was presented on January 4 to a number of Republican senators and members of Congress. Apparently the pitch is 36 slides that lay out a road map for the Jan. 6 attempted coup. Seems like the House Select Committee now has it literally in writing that senior advisors to Trump plotted to declare a bogus national emergency in order to cancel a national election, and possibly, seize the government by force.

Only time will tell given our unwavering commitment to adhering to due process, whether justice for the coup plotters will prevail. On to cartoons.

It didn’t end on January 6:

Maybe it’s time for Dems to shelve Build Back Better and concentrate on voting rights:

Democracy needs a booster:

The GOP Magi arrive bearing gifts:

Imagine if vasectomies were mandated:

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Saturday Soother – December 11, 2021

The Daily Escape:

Mesquite Dunes, Death Valley NP, photo by Ed Kendall

(This week’s Sunday Cartoons will appear on Monday)

Wrongo understands that the Jan. 6 investigations are looking in depth at who was behind the attempted coup. But he’s very unhappy with the Democrats’ inability to keep the issue alive, fresh and in front of the American people.

Apparently, communication with the public is too difficult for Democrats.

There are two investigative efforts underway, one by the DOJ, and another by the House of Representatives. Here is the current state of play: DOJ has arrested close to 700 people (possibly more, once you consider cases that haven’t yet been unsealed).

The House Select Committee has already met with about 300 witnesses. They have litigated and won a case against Trump’s assertion of executive privilege. A federal appeals court rejected Trump’s request to block the Jan. 6 Select Committee from obtaining executive branch records. Trump’s path now is to go to the Supreme Court before New Year’s.

The truth will ultimately come out. The question is if anyone will care.

It’s been obvious that Trump’s Big Lie would be the organizing principle of the GOP ever since January 6. It was a delusion to think that the GOP would sober up and fly right, and it’s now clear that they are going to continue to drink the Trump-spiked Kool-Aid for the foreseeable future. It’s highly unlikely that Trump’s followers will allow any Republican candidates to hedge on the Big Lie or pretend to distance themselves from Dear Leader.

The Atlantic’s Barton Gellman wrote a major piece about how the GOP plans to steal the 2022 mid-terms and the 2024 general election. He makes a compelling case that Trump and his cronies are laying the groundwork for a coup in 2024 using the tactics they attempted leading up to and on Jan. 6.

The Congressional investigation is proceeding “top down” and unlike the DOJ, it’s without the constraint of needing near-certainty of a conviction before going public.

The DOJ is proceeding “bottom up” albeit with vast investigative resources, and (hopefully) with a keen sense of what NOT to say prematurely lest it compromise their investigations. The DOJ investigation starts at the Capitol crime scene, building from the useful idiots and militia foot soldiers towards the inciters and commanders.

Congress OTOH, can focus directly on mid-to-upper-level conspirators, like Bannon and Meadows. In a way, both groups are building a bridge from opposite banks of the river. Maybe, someday the two spans will meet. We have to pray it works out that way.

Republicans are rewriting January 6th and are trying to flush it down the memory hole. It’s certain to work on at least 40% of the country. The issue is whether they can convince another 10% of voters to think there might be nothing to it.

Enough of politics for this week. It’s time for our Saturday Soother!

The weather in Connecticut is unseasonably warm and dry. On the fields of Wrong, it’s time to put up the temporary fencing that keeps the deer from nibbling on leaves and bark. That constitutes much of their winter diets.

Then take a few minutes to brew up a vente cup of True Grit Peaberry coffee ($14.00/12oz.) from Nguyen Coffee Supply, a Brooklyn, NY based roaster that is the first specialty Vietnamese coffee company in the US.

Now grab a seat by a window, settle back in your comfy chair. Watch and listen to George Gershwin’s “Rhapsody in Blue”, played by the Cellista Cello Ensemble from Korea. Here it is played by 12 cellos in an arrangement by Sung-Min Ahn:

The iconic opening riff is usually played on clarinet. But here, it sounds great on the cello.

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Sunday Cartoon Blogging – October 24, 2021

Last Friday, Wrongo and Ms. Right got their Covid booster shots. It’s a sample of one, but at our local drugstore here in a very conservative part of Connecticut, there was a line to get shots. Some were there for their first vaccinations, but most were waiting for a booster. There’s never a line around here for anything, except when the lobster food truck rolls into town.

But sadly, this isn’t the story for the rest of the country, particularly for cops and heath care workers. Some are saying that the vaccine mandates do little. But health workers who don’t really believe in science are leaving the job. And cops who don’t really care about public safety are leaving policing. Sounds like mandates are working just fine. On to cartoons.

Mandates are nothing new:

Most Republicans want boosters:

Texas got two new districts. Then the GOP redrew urban districts so that incumbent minority congresspeople are now running against each other:

One of our two political parties thinks that elections shouldn’t be the basis for choosing our representatives. That means democracy doesn’t matter to them anymore. They say it’s because there’s too much voter fraud, and no one can trust the result of any election now, anywhere.

So, the Dems think the next step is to change the Senate rules, modifying the filibuster. That would pave the way to pass the Protect the Vote Act. But there’s real danger that when the Republicans inevitably regain the majority, they will change that law to whatever the next Trump-like Republican leader wants voting rights to be. Could it be that Republicans are blocking the bill, not just to deny voting rights to minorities, but to lure the Democrats into changing the filibuster?

The economic ship sails on, and 40 years later, there’s zero thought to changing the message:

Biden compromises on the social spending bill. Still, it’s not certain to pass:

If only there was a solution to our supply chain problems:

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We’d Better Build Back

The Daily Escape:

Sunset, Herring Cove, Provincetown MA – October 18, 2021, photo by Karen Riddett

“Men must either govern or be governed.”   ̶  Elihu Root, 1912 Nobel Peace Prize Winner

Wrongo has never cared for Biden’s “Build Back Better” slogan. He prefers “We’d Better Build Back.” The focus should be on what could happen if we remain on the track favored by Sens. Manchin and McConnell, along with McConnell’s Republican colleagues.

We’d better build back from the wreckage of the Trump presidency. We’d better build back from the wreckage caused by Congressional inaction for the past 20+ years.

Wrongo is currently reading “Wildland, The Making of America’s Fury” by Evan Osnos, journalist at the New Yorker. Osnos says in the Prologue, (pg. 13) that September 11, 2001, and January 6, 2021, were two cataclysmic events in American history, and that the intervening 20 years was: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“…a period in which Americans lost their vision for the common good, the capacity to see the union as larger than the sum of its parts. A century and a half after the Civil War, America was again a cloven nation. It’s stability was foundering on fundamental tensions over the balance between individual freedom and the protection of others, over the reckoning with injustice, and over a basic test of any political society: Whose life matters?”

Umair Haque makes the importance of building back clear in a way that only someone living abroad can:

“America has the rich world’s lowest quality of life, by a long way — after all, Americans will die 5–10 years younger than Spaniards or Germans, but even that understates the issue. It is uniquely a dismal life: nowhere else do we see opioid epidemics, kids massacring one another at schools, having “active shooter drills…”

Haque points out that the fundamentals of a decent life: A living wage, universal access to healthcare, affordable education and housing, and a secure retirement are no longer within reach for the average American.

That’s why we’d better build back.

Step one is to deal with the threats to democracy. We will soon know if the Democrats can actually rouse themselves from their Republican-lite slumbers to pass the Freedom to Vote Act to help get this done.

Step two is to pass the Build Back Better Act, Biden’s social spending bill. It’s now clear that the bill will need to shrink in order to pass. And like the House and Senate, America doesn’t agree on which of its big-ticket items are most important, but shrinkage is on the agenda.

The bill has remained popular in the polls. One thing that’s clear from public surveys: People want to pay for the bill by taxing the rich.

A Vox and Data for Progress poll, conducted between October 8-12, found that 71% of voters support raising taxes on the wealthiest 2% of Americans to pay for the bill. Eighty-six percent of Democrats and 50% of Republicans back that idea. Other tax provisions that could be included in the bill, like tax increases on corporations and capital gains, were supported by more than 65%. Increasing corporate taxes is Wrongo’s preferred policy approach to raising revenues.

Vitally important to the job of building a better country is the proposed new spending on health care, long-term care, childcare, and clean-energy jobs. These ideas are supported by 63% of voters in the poll.

The wisdom of the framers has given us an unrepresentative Senate. That unrepresentative Senate has given us the filibuster, which can be changed, but apparently not by our current Democratic Senators.

And despite its popularity, Biden’s social spending bill won’t be passed in its present form until Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema get what they want removed from it. A real question is whether we have moderate Democrats or just mediocre Democrats who are willing to kill democracy as we know it for some phony principle.

But you can bet it’s not just Manchin and Sinema. There are at least 8-10 other Democratic Senators with substantial bases of wealthy contributors who feel the same pressures and are perfectly happy to have the whole package scaled down, delayed, and possibly killed.

This brings us to step three. Elect better Senators, but how? We were taught in school that in a democratic republic, you get the politicians that the voters (or at least those people who are allowed to vote) want.

This means we need better voters.

How do we get them? It’s hard to know how to do that, except you know, PASS THE FREEDOM TO VOTE ACT!

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Freedom to Vote Act is Worth a Filibuster Exemption

The Daily Escape:

Indian Neck Beach, Wellfleet MA – October 2021 photo by Marilyn Cook

It’s been a little over a month since Wrongo wrote that the next 30 days would be make-or-break for the right to vote and for democracy itself. Well, times up. There haven’t been any votes on Sen. Manchin’s Freedom to Vote Act, or on Biden’s social policy and infrastructure bills that the Democrats continue to try to build consensus on.

Charles M. Blow in the NYT alerts us that the voting rights bill is supposed to be taken up today:

“Senator Chuck Schumer, the majority leader, has indicated that he plans to schedule a vote for Wednesday to open debate on a new voting rights bill, the Freedom to Vote Act.”

Blow went on to say:

“This is a once in a generation moment, one pivotal to the very survival of the country as we know it.”

Indeed, without it, it’s unclear what the way forward will be for our democracy.

The bill is a compromise worked out by Sens. Manchin (D-WVA) and Klobachar (D-MN). It would set national standards for early voting, allow the use of more forms of voter identification, make Election Day a federal holiday and institute measures to counter voter suppression tactics.

In addition, it would force states to give voters the option to register on Election Day and offer safeguards against voter purges. It overhauls portions of the campaign finance system, prohibits partisan gerrymandering, and prevents the politicized removal of election officials.

The bill is unlikely to get the 60 votes needed to pass. Even assuming all 50 Democrats agree, it will need support from 10 Republicans to overcome a certain Republican filibuster. That seems unlikely to happen. BTW, the last time the voting rights act was up for renewal, it passed 98-0.

We’re probably looking a two failures: Sen. Manchin will probably fail to find the necessary 10 Republican votes, and then, the bill will fail to go to an up or down vote.

The real questions are whether Manchin and Schumer will then try to carve out an exception to the filibuster rules allowing for a simple majority to pass legislation that effects voting rights, and whether Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) will agree to support the exception. That’s what pro-democracy advocates are hoping to see.

Since it’s no secret that Democrats need Manchin’s and Sinema’s votes to get anything done, their frustration with both Senators is understandable. Wrongo gave money to Sinema’s Senatorial campaign, and he hopes that it wasn’t in vain.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has called the Dems voting reform effort “a solution in search of a problem,” driven by “coordinated lies about commonsense election laws that various states have passed.” But the Brennan Center notes that since January, “19 states have enacted 33 laws that will make it harder for Americans to vote.”

Does McConnell think these are examples of “commonsense election laws”?

When Trump runs again in 2024, unchecked voter suppression will give him a better chance of winning than he had last time. And Blow rightly points out that if the Republicans happened to be in the position the Democrats are in now, they wouldn’t bat an eye at eliminating the filibuster if it helped them further suppress voting on the federal level.

A final message from Blow:

“For Democrats, this voting rights bill is a top priority, but from now until something is passed, it should be the only priority…. But even if you have glistening infrastructure in a fascist state, you are still in a fascist state. If you get two years of community college free in a fascist state, you are still in a fascist state. If more people get broadband access, more people will be able to search for what it means to live in a fascist state.”

Without this bill, our democracy is in real peril. A few months ago, Schumer said he would pass voting rights by any means necessary, echoing Malcolm X.

Let’s see if he has what it takes to win in a divided Senate.

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Amend the Electoral Count Act

The Daily Escape:

Great North Woods, NH – October 2021 photo by Michael Blanchette

Regarding Facebook’s outage: How did anti-vaxxers do their research without Facebook?

On to what’s wrong today: The Jan. 6 coup attempt didn’t succeed, but it came close. And those involved in the plot have learned from their mistakes. This means the country faces a growing risk of electoral subversion by Republicans and by Trump and his supporters.

We’re still learning the details behind Trump’s attempt to overthrow the 2020 election, including his pressure on state officials, the Eastman memo, and the Oval Office meetings with Mike Pence, attempting to convince him to throw out certified vote totals from certain states during the Jan. 6 Electoral College vote tally. This attack to subvert the will of the American voters didn’t involve the Capitol rioters. It was held in the White House and led by Trump.

But the attempted coup isn’t over. There’s an organized effort by Republicans in many states to fill key, lower profile election jobs with people who will only certify elections that Republicans win. They’re proponents of Trump’s Big Lie and they’re trying to upend our democratic election process.

On Saturday, the NYT had an editorial about a reform that may be both the most urgently needed, and the easiest (relatively) to pass into law, reforming the Electoral Count Act (ECA):

“The Electoral Count Act, which passed more than 130 years ago, was Congress’s response to another dramatic presidential dispute — the election of 1876, in which the Republican Rutherford Hayes won the White House despite losing the popular vote to his Democratic opponent, Samuel Tilden.”

The NYT says that the Electoral Count Act contains numerous ambiguities and poorly drafted provisions:

“For instance, it permits a state legislature to appoint electors on its own, regardless of how the state’s own citizens voted, if the state “failed to make a choice” on Election Day. What does that mean? The law doesn’t say. It also allows any objection to a state’s electoral votes to be filed as long as one senator and one member of the House put their names to it, triggering hours of debate — which is how senators like Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley were able to gum up the works on Jan. 6.”

A few legal scholars have argued that parts of the ECA are unconstitutional, which was the basis of Eastman’s claim that Mike Pence could simply disregard the law and reject electors of certain key battleground states. But the NYT says:

“Nothing in the Constitution or federal law gives the vice president this authority. The job of the vice president is to open the envelopes and read out the results, nothing more. Any reform to the Electoral Count Act should start there, by making it explicit that the vice president’s role on Jan. 6 is purely ministerial and doesn’t include the power to rule on disputes over electors.”

Democrats could bring forward an amendment to the ECA. And it’s unlikely that Republicans would filibuster the vote on the amendment, so Democrats could pass it with a simple majority vote. Their amendment should clarify that the vice-president’s role is purely ceremonial. Further, the threshold for objections to state electoral vote counts could be made higher than just one Senator and one House member from the state in question.

Instead of focusing on the ECA, Senate Democrats hope to pass a version of the Freedom to Vote Act. The act would set nationwide voting standards to help counteract anti-democratic laws passed by legislatures in at least 17 states driven by partisan, conspiracy-minded election officials who could sabotage legitimate election results. The Freedom to Vote Act has four principal pillars:

  1. It sets national standards to protect and expand the right to vote.
  2. It would protect the integrity of elections and make it harder for partisan officials to subvert valid election results.
  3. It would prohibit partisan gerrymandering and empower courts to invalidate overly partisan maps, a needed change since many states have already begun their 10-year redistricting process.
  4. It would reduce the power of big money in elections by shining a bright light on so-called dark money campaign spending.

But there’s little chance of this bill’s passage through the Senate. From Sen. Angus King (I-ME):

“I don’t think the Republicans here are interested in short-circuiting what their brothers and sisters are doing in statehouses across the country,”

Maybe Republicans would also reject ECA reform if the Senate tried to change it. We’re in a world where what the majority wants is no longer what will happen politically.

And the window for fixing this is closing before our eyes.

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