Category: Domestic Policy

Thanksgiving Week

The Daily Escape:

Turkeys on the fields of Wrong – November 2018 photo by Wrongo

(This is the last column before Thanksgiving. Words from Wrongo will resume on 11/28.)

Thanksgiving is Wrongo’s favorite holiday. As a secular holiday, you’re not required to do anything. The celebration is subdued, and around here, we focus on gratitude. Wrongo always thinks about how grateful we should be to live in this wonderful country of ours, and how grateful we are for all of America’s gifts.

We’re lucky to live in a land of plenty: Most of us have employment, most have access to quality healthcare. Most of us have a warm place to sleep at night, most have hope for their kids’ future.

There are many of us who do not have those things, and it is our collective responsibility to help them get to a place where they are physically and mentally secure. They need our help. And we know what to do, and we know how  to do it.

This is our 2498th column. Wrongo wants to thank all who have stuck around since the beginning in 2010. He thanks all of you who read it now, and that includes readers in more than 60 countries. Special thanks to long haulers Monty B, Fred VK, David P, Pat M, and Terry McK, among others. Wrongo is very grateful to all of you!

Wrongo’s wish is that you allow yourself to feel gratitude today and share it with those around you. The secret of life is to affect others in a positive way.

We’re truly grateful for those who came before us, and to our family members and friends who we can’t be with today. We’re thankful to those who are on the front lines in military service, or at home in our hospitals, schools, firehouses, and police stations. Happy Thanksgiving!

The NYT has an article about how online gambling companies have gotten their noses under the tents at colleges and universities:

“In order to reap millions of dollars in fees, universities are partnering with betting companies to introduce their students and sports fans to online gambling.”

The Times says that Michigan State University’s athletic department inked a deal with Caesars Sportsbook in 2021. Caesars proposed a deal worth $8.4 million over five years. Michigan signed on the line. Other schools have also struck deals to bring betting to campus. More from the NYT:

“After Louisiana State University signed a similar deal in 2021 with Caesars, the university sent an email encouraging recipients — including some students who were under 21 and couldn’t legally gamble — to “place your first bet (and earn your first bonus).”

Since the Supreme Court’s decision in 2018 to let states legalize online betting, gambling companies have been working to convert traditional casino customers, fantasy sports aficionados and players of online games into a new generation of digital gamblers.

And universities, with their captive audience of easy-to-reach students, have emerged as an especially enticing target. So far, at least eight universities have become partners with online sports-betting companies.

And a dozen other universities’ athletic departments and booster clubs have also signed agreements with brick-and-mortar casinos. For example, Turning Stone Resort and Casino is the official resort of Syracuse University’s ‘Cuse Athletics Fund. These gambling partnerships bring in funds that schools can use to sign marquee coaches and build their sports teams.

Wrongo rarely gambles, but he has a mostly lassiez faire attitude about it. He’s skeptical about prohibiting it. But the idea by universities of “let’s introduce our students to online gambling for our profit” sounds, well, wrong. The hypocrisy here is that the sports betting companies are offering “a piece of the action” to schools that not long ago swore that gambling would ruin college sports.

It isn’t exactly the same, but do you recall that back in the 80s, banks introduced credit cards and credit card debt to students? And how did that work out? You can almost imagine hearing: “Want to go double or nothing on those student loans, kid?” The most relevant quote from the NYT is:

“College athletics have become profit maximizing opportunities for athletic directors and coaches.”

Wrongo thinks this has nothing to do with the educational mission of colleges and universities. OTOH, the ol’ ball coach is saying: “Wanna bet”?

Let’s cruise into the holiday by listening  to a tune that is new to Wrongo, Josh Groban’s “Thankful” performed live from his “Noel” album. It’s on point with Wrongo’s thinking about Thanksgiving:

Lyrics:

Somedays we forget
To look around us
Somedays we can’t see
The joy that surrounds us
So caught up inside ourselves
We take when we should give.

So for tonight we pray for
What we know can be.
And on this day we hope for
What we still can’t see.

It’s up to us to be the change
And even though we all can still do more
There’s so much to be thankful for.

Look beyond ourselves
There’s so much sorrow
It’s way too late to say
I’ll cry tomorrow
Each of us must find our truth
It’s so long overdue

So for tonight we pray for
What we know can be
And every day we hope for
What we still can’t see

It’s up to us to be the change
And even though this world needs so much more
There’s so much to be thankful for

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Monday Wake Up Call – November 21, 2022

The Daily Escape:

Early snow, Rockford, MI – November 2022 photo by Jeane Blazic

We’re going to cover two topics on this Monday. First, Bernard L. Fraga, associate professor of Political Science at Emory University, tweeted the demographics of the Georgia midterm election:

Black turnout was down by 4.5% vs 2018. Hispanic turnout was down 2.5%. Had the Black turnout percentage been at 2018 levels, Warnock probably would have won outright. The difference may have been caused in part by the new voting restrictions in Georgia. Wrongo talked last week about helping Georgians get photo IDs. People better wake up and help get more Black Georgians to the polls on December 6.

But today’s main wake up call is about the Rightwing group, the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC). Wrongo has written about ALEC before, here, here, here and here. ALEC prepares model legislation that conforms to hard Right ideology. They then meet with state legislators all across America to push for adoption of ALEC-written laws at the state level. These are laws that would probably never become law at the federal level.

In the past, some Republican-led states have passed hundreds of pieces of ALEC’s model legislation almost word for word, including on immigration, voter suppression, the environment, guns, and energy policy.

Now, ALEC is pushing states to adopt a new law shielding US businesses from “political boycotts”. If enacted, the proposed legislation, would prevent boycotts by investors, banks, and companies of any other US business. The guts of the Act is that a governmental entity may not enter into a contract with a company for goods or services unless the contract contains a written verification from the company that it:

  • Does not engage in economic boycotts; and
  • Will not engage in economic boycotts during the term of the contract.

This comes about amid rising consumer pressure on firms over who they support politically, or who they choose to do business with. Think about the decision by major retail stores to stop selling My Pillow products, or the decision by Adidas to cut Kanye West’s shoe line loose after he made anti-Semitic statements.

From The Guardian:

“The new model legislation requires every “governmental entity”, which covers a wide array of bodies from state government to local police departments and public universities, to include a clause in contracts requiring businesses to pledge they “will not engage in economic boycotts”

For most of us, “free markets” means that businesses are free to make buying and selling decisions based on the information that’s relevant to their economic interests. But to enforce this Act, a state Attorney General can decide that the decision to, for example, divest the stock of an oil and gas company, is an ideological act.

What if it’s just not that good of a stock?

ALEC’s doublethink maintains that for free markets to remain free, it is sometimes necessary to restrict the freedom to make certain decisions based on criteria that an Attorney General can define as “ideological.”

Even if they are based on a sound economic rationale.

We knew all along that for the Right Wing, free doesn’t really mean free. These people are authoritarians who want to harness the powers of government for their own ends. And they’ll do whatever’s convenient to achieve those ends.

The Republican establishment is very much alive. ALEC is the right wing’s corporate gangsters in suits. In this case, it’s billionaires aligned with corrupt Republican politicians. They have purchased state and federal legislators to do their bidding. And it’s been going on for a very long time.

Let’s see what the Supreme Court does when one of these cases gets in front of them.

Time to wake up America! The hard right in America is unbelievably well-funded. ALEC is just one of the many ways that they are undermining what true “freedom” means.

To help you wake up, listen to Little Feat, that is, the Lowell George-led version of Little Feat, (not the several incarnations of newer bands using that name that have been working since Lowell died in 1979).

Here Lowell George does “Dixie Chicken”, recorded at London’s Rainbow Theater on August 3 & 4, 1977. It’s from the live album, “Waiting for Columbus”. If you don’t know this album, you should buy the 2002 Deluxe Edition CD. You will never be sorry. Don’t buy the version on Amazon, it only has 20 songs; the actual deluxe CD has 27.

WFC was recorded in London and in Washington DC. There were 4 dates in London and 3 in DC. Here it is:

That’s Bill Payne on the piano solo. Little Feat combines jazz, honkytonk, swing, ragtime and Dixie into one great song. Enjoy!

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Monday Wake Up Call – November 14, 2022

The Daily Escape:

Bison at Grand Teton NP, WY – October 2022 photo by Kerry Key

As we peel the onion of the midterms we learned something from Massachusetts that’s worth thinking about:

“Massachusetts voters approved an amendment to the state constitution that will increase taxes on those earning more than $1 million a year…. The state’s constitution currently requires all income be taxed at uniform rates. The $1 million threshold will be adjusted each year to reflect cost-of-living increases.”

Fifty-two percent of voters approved the amendment which will add a 4% tax on annual incomes above $1 million, on top of the state’s current 5% flat income tax. It takes effect in 2023, and will fund public education, roads, bridges, and public transportation.

It’s expected the new tax will affect roughly 0.6% of Massachusetts households, according to an analysis from Tufts University. The new tax also applies to “one-time millionaires,” including people who make more than $1 million in taxable income from selling their homes or businesses. It’s estimated to bring in roughly $1.3 billion in revenue during fiscal 2023, according to Tufts.

Supporters applauded the new tax as a necessary step to address MA’s income inequality gap. The Economic Policy Institute ranks Massachusetts as the sixth-worst state in the country when it comes to income inequality.

It is true that the US is one of the most economically unequal nations in the developed world. Most of the income and wealth gains of the last decade have gone to the richest 0.1%—households with annual incomes of $2.4 million and wealth of at least $32 million.

So it isn’t surprising that a similar idea has floated around DC for some time. In October 2021, Biden introduced a “millionaire’s surtax,” bill that would raise taxes on all forms of income, including wages, capital gains, and dividends. It would have imposed a 5% tax on incomes above $10 million and an 8% tax on incomes above $25 million, raising $230 billion over 10 years from the wealthiest 0.02% of Americans.

Naturally, it didn’t pass.

So the effort moved to the states, with success in 2022 Massachusetts and failure in California, where its millionaire’s surtax was defeated, 59%-41%.

In some ways, the millionaire tax debate is emblematic of the nation’s deep political divide. Republicans everywhere only want to see taxes go down, and Democrats are seeking to raise them to fund long term problems like battling climate change and adding better infrastructure.

The GOP asks: If climate change is an existential issue affecting us all, does it make sense to address the issue by taxing only a handful of households? Your answer may be different from Wrongo’s who sees the question as a way to deflect the discussion into an endless loop of “whataboutism” regarding who pays taxes.

Republicans have refused to support carbon use taxes. They’ve refused to support cap-and-trade carbon taxes. Most of them deny that climate change is happening and refuse to pro-actively plan to moderate greenhouse gas emissions, here or anywhere else. So they aren’t engaging in a serious discussion when they ask the question.

Although efforts to raise taxes on millionaires have stalled in Washington, they haven’t gone away. That will happen if Republicans control the House in January 2023.

Time to wake up America! Deficits can grow to the sky at the national level but states have to balance their budgets yearly. That’s why some states are making the choice to raise taxes on millionaires, the very people who have gained the most in the past 50 years. Raising taxes is a must in most states for the remainder of this decade.

To help you wake up, watch, and listen to Molly Tuttle channel Grace Slick while covering the Jefferson Airplane’s “White Rabbit“. Tuttle was just named the International Bluegrass Music Association’s Guitar Player of the Year, so you’re seeing “White Rabbit” done as bluegrass, performed in October 2022 in Portland, ME:

Tuttle is an amazing performer. You can learn more about her here.

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Midterm Hot Takes

The Daily Escape:

First snowfall, Snoqualmie, WA – November 2022 photo by Gary Hamburgh Photography

Here are Wrongo’s hot takes on the midterms, with the understanding that it will be days (weeks?) before we really know all that happened:

  • The polls overcorrected for previous mistakes by being biased in favor of the GOP this time. Democrats outperformed their poll numbers by about 1 point. The evidence was there all along that there were alternative outcomes that were at least as likely, and that the vote differential between max D and max R would be at most, 3 points.
  • Abortion rights and election denial were both on the ballot. Despite the polling, results confirm that a woman’s right to choose was popular while election denial is a fringe belief. In Pennsylvania, exit polls found that abortion was the number one issue, outpacing inflation 36% to 28%. Both core Republican positions were rejected by most Americans.
  • 2022 was as close to a perfect environment for a Red wave as we’ll likely see in the next few years. But as the Daily Beast says: “Republicans had hoped for a red wave. What they got looked more like purple rain.”
  • In every race where Democrats helped fund a MAGA candidate in a primary over a less crazy Republican, the MAGA Republican lost in the general election.
  • All the abortion rights state initiatives won. John Roberts is sitting at home, weeping bitter tears and saying to his fellow Justices: “I told you so”.
  • The Senate is looking like a 50/50 split again, assuming that Kelly wins in Arizona and Warnock defeats Walker in a runoff. Walker is the essence of the GOP experiment in candidate crapification: “Exactly how little can we offer you in a candidate and still have you vote for them?“
  • You’re going to have to reopen your wallets for Rev. Warnock again in November.
  • There’s an outside chance that Nevada may return Cortez-Masto to the Senate, making the Dem’s potential ceiling 51-49.
  • We need to remember that 2024 is a much less favorable environment for Democrats. So by then, it may become impossible to confirm another Democratic SCOTUS nominee, possibly for as long as the rest of the decade. That requires Dems to kill the filibuster.
  • The House will most likely flip to the Republicans by a small margin. Democrats are overperforming, but they need to sweep the remaining toss-up races in order to keep the majority. Dozens of House races, including in NY and CA, are too close to call.
  • Current House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) had predicted a 60-seat GOP surge. It will most likely be fewer than 10 seats. McCarthy’s going to spend the next two years trying to give a bath to a bagful of bobcats.
  • All of the House Republicans elected on Tuesday are committed to a decidedly different direction than that of Biden and the Democrats. There will be few opportunities for legislative consensus. And lots of opportunity for Republican grandstanding.
  • The governor races that Republicans had hoped to capture: New York, Kansas, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Maine, all stayed Blue.
  • Michigan Democrats are poised to win full control of state government by taking majorities in the legislature for the first time in 40 years, matching Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s reelection victory.
  • Florida is no longer a battleground state. And Iowa and Ohio seem now to be completely out of reach for Democrats. Texas stayed solidly Red for at least another cycle. But it appears that Michigan and Pennsylvania may have slipped into the Blue camp.

Closing thoughts: Biden defied expectations. He was set up to take the blame for a large midterm loss in both the House and Senate. That might have led for calls from within the Party for Biden to stand down in 2024. Limiting the Party’s losses may not improve his favorability ratings, but it makes attacks from within the Party difficult.

Second, regardless of your viewpoint on the quality of the Dems’ messaging, pundits in the media will make opposing arguments (e.g., Dems should be more moderate, Dems should be more liberal) and there will be at least some data points to support their views.

Third, Republicans are pointing their fingers at Trump for the GOP’s failure to live up to expectations. This is the third straight election in which Trump has cost the Republican Party winnable seats. Whether that emboldens Florida’s DeSantis to battle Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination remains to be seen. The best possible outcome would be that DeSantis actually takes on Trump. Imagine if he beat Trump to the nomination. Would Trump run a third party campaign?

It’s fun to dream about, even if it’s an unlikely prospect. Then again, let’s hope that Trump is indicted by the DOJ long before the 2024 nominating process gets underway.

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What Was The Dems’ Closing Argument?

The Daily Escape:

Valley of Fire SP, NV – November 2022 photo by Carol Cox

It’s Election Day. Over the next few days, the mainstream media, and self-appointed pundits like Wrongo will try to make sense of what the vote tallies mean for America and for the two Parties. Regardless of the outcome, many things will be very different in 2023.

Here’s Sherrilyn Ifill with a great closing argument for voting rather than standing on the sidelines:

“Voting this year is not only political, it’s personal. To vote is to speak. To vote is to declare that you will not be written out of the definition of who can claim their right to this national identity. To vote is to fight. Voting is not the only way to fight, but it is one of our most powerful weapons. Wield it with power and determination. And leave no power on the table.”

The one overriding issue in this midterm election has been inflation. The media won’t let go of it, and the glare effect of inflation makes some voters think that the economy is also terrible. And it hangs over the closing arguments of all Democrats because the Republicans falsely say that the sole cause of inflation is that the Biden administration’s spending like crazy.

The truth is that about 54% of the current inflation rate is due to elevated corporate profits.

Prices are rising not just because of worker’s wages. The cost of labor is increasing at a slower rate than inflation. Raw materials are not the prime driver of increased inflation either. Companies are raising prices above and beyond costs because they can.

Unless companies can reduce their cost of bringing products to market, the only way to increase the firm’s markup is by increasing its selling price. Kevin Drum has helpfully taken a look at that for us:

The blue line represents the total cost of employing somebody, including all wages and benefits. Since 2020 it’s risen at less than the rate of inflation. The red line represents after-tax profits as a share of gross value added, (markup to economists). Before 2020 it rose roughly in line with inflation, but since 2020 it’s skyrocketed.

From Drum: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“Corporations are increasing prices…and blaming it on inflation. But it’s not because of inflation. It’s a cause of inflation. Prices are rising….mainly because companies are raising prices above and beyond that for no special reason except that they can. And all of us are paying the price.”

Economist Robert Reich points out that corporations can jack up prices today without losing customers because we’ve allowed virtual monopolies to develop in many US industries. Since the 1980s, he says, two-thirds of all American industries have become more concentrated. Some examples:

  • Foods: Four companies control 85% of all meat and poultry processing. Just one corporation sets the price for most of the nation’s seed corn. Just two giant firms dominate consumer staples.
  • Drugs and prescriptions: Big pharma consists of just five corporations.
  • Air travel:The airline industry has gone from 12 carriers in 1980 to just four today.
  • Banking: Wall Street has consolidated into five giant banks.
  • Broadband: It’s dominated by three cable companies.

The US House Subcommittee on Economic and Consumer Policy released an analysis last Friday that spells out how some corporations have enacted price hikes and are enjoying record profits. What’s worse, the CEOs of the big firms openly admit on earnings calls with investors that they use inflation as a cover to raise prices. Here’s what a few CEOs of major companies are saying:

Michael McGarry, CEO of PPG, in response to a question whether prices will go back down when input prices are lower:

“…we’re not going to be giving this pricing back….So we’re telling people, this is the new price. And if you don’t like it, please don’t place purchase orders.”

William C. Rhodes, CEO of Autozone:

“It is also notable that following periods of higher inflation, our industry has historically not reduced pricing to reflect lower ultimate cost.”

Jim Snee, CEO of Hormel:

“…our Grocery Products pricing is very sticky and so the pricing that we’ve taken and that we’re in the midst of executing the additional price increase, that pricing will by and large stay.”

The inflation we’re experiencing is not due to wage gains, it’s due to profit gains from corporate pricing power.

It would be nice if the media reported on what’s really causing the inflation. Many people are going to the polls today thinking this is Biden policy-caused inflation rather than the reality of a corporate drive for higher profits.

Too bad so few Democrats are talking about this when they get hammered about inflation by their Republican opponents.

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Sunday Cartoon Blogging – October 23, 2022

(Today we’re leaving for London. Regular columns will resume on 11/1. In the meantime, if turbulence occurs, keep your tray tables in their upright and locked position and your hands inside the blog.)

John Dick, CEO of Civic Science, has a weekly newsletter that is worth your time. This week he asks:

“What if we’re just talking ourselves into all of this? Admittedly, I partied too much in college to get good enough grades to go to a respectable grad school to become an economist. I’m out of my league here.”

Dick wonders why economists are so sure that we can’t escape inflation unless we head into a deep recession. He also wonders (as does Wrongo) if currently, there’s a doomsday loop at work. It’s true that there are times when regardless of the news, the stock market goes down. More from Dick:

“Oh no! The job market is too good. Wages are growing too fast! Employees have too much leverage in the workplace! The dollar’s too strong! People’s homes are worth too much! We’re all screwed!!!”

The news media dutifully reinforces the doomsday loop. And who proffers answers? Very few. So, around we go, blaming the politicians in one Party for something they cannot solve, and neither can the other Party. And thus, the prophecy fulfills itself. On to cartoons.

This passes for an answer from the elephant:

How to solve a problem like Hershel:

When you weren’t worried about democracy:

The GOP’s scariest story:

There are waay too many political ads:

Turkeys are where you find them:

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Saturday Soother – October 22, 2022

The Daily Escape:

Sunset, Cranberry bog, Yarmouth, MA – October 2022 photo by Jean Burns

Wrongo and Ms. Right are leaving on Sunday for a week in London. We’re arriving there just as the horse race for whoever will become the UK’s next prime minister will be clear to all. We’re expecting it to dominate the British news while we’re there.

On September 10, Wrongo said he wasn’t a fan of the now departed Liz Truss. He also said it was hard to believe her effort to revive the zombie concept that is trickle-down economics would go well with the UK already in a recession. She lasted just 44 days in office. Here’s a hot take from England:

Seems like a lot of turmoil for a small, low growth, densely populated country.

Truss’s sin was simple. Her economic plan was designed to satisfy libertarian think tanks and fans of Ronald Reagan and Margret Thatcher rather than to be something workable. Republicans in America do this kind of thing because we can, since the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. That means we can go almost as far into debt as we want without the markets panicking.

But the UK doesn’t have that luxury. So there’s a limit to how many favors they can do to their own fabulously rich citizens.

The policy that got Truss thrown out of No. 10 Downing Street was a copy of the foundational Republican US domestic agenda, as practiced from Reagan to Trump. That is, cut taxes for the rich and corporations, then hope it eventually creates tax revenue before it forces spending cuts.

And the British financial markets seem to actually care about the well-being of their country’s economy. However, American markets seem to care only about maximizing share prices and the after-tax compensation of top-level executives.

US Conservatives were delighted when Truss became PM. On September 23, Larry Kudlow said on FOX:

“The new British prime minister, Liz Truss, has laid out a terrific supply-side economic growth plan which looks a lot like the basic thrust of Kevin McCarthy’s Commitment to America plan.”

Needless to say, like Truss, Republicans are also willing to do unfunded tax cuts and call it a growth agenda. They’re also willing to fail to extend America’s borrowing limit, in order to make their agenda happen. The GOP would try to hold the Democratic president hostage in order to share some political responsibility for that action, never mind that an American debt default would also hold a gun to the global economy.

That isn’t possible in the country that brought you Maggie Thatcher. They toss out their incompetent supply-siders. The elephant in the room of the UK’s chaos and crisis is 2016’s Brexit. Even though Brexit has brought about low GDP growth, it remains a hard right political project rooted in a mythical British past.

Brexit’s Tory supporters didn’t care about the hard economic evidence that Brexit would be an act of economic self-harm. And the political divisions Brexit caused in the Tory party remain a problem as they now seek to unite behind another sacrificial PM. From David Frum:

“The problem is that you’re not eligible for the captaincy unless you agree it was a brilliant idea to scupper the ship in 2016 – and can convincingly act baffled why it has been sinking ever since,”

If America still has the ability to learn, it would be great if they studied this Tory disaster.

It would be nice if American voters would really punish Republicans when they fuck up and tank the economy again. And not just by electing a Democratic president, as they did in 1992 and 2008 when the economy went south.

OTOH, if anything can get Joe Biden reelected, it’s a Republican-led Congress in 2023 and 2024. They will screw things up just as thoroughly as Liz Truss has screwed the pooch in Britain. Then, we’ll have to see if they’ll ever be blamed for it.

Enough foreign politics for today. It’s time for our Saturday Soother, where we consider raking the leaves that are suddenly carpeting the Fields of Wrong but decide to put it off until we return.

Let’s start by brewing up a big mug of Costa Rica Cerro Dragon Geisha Honey ($12.00/4oz.) from RamsHead Coffee Roasters of Bozeman, Montana. It is said to be an invitingly complex Costa Rica honey-processed cup with notes of tropical fruit, sweet herbs, and crisp cocoa.

Now grab a seat by a south-facing window and listen to Khatia Buniatishvili play Schubert’s “Impromptu No. 3 in G-Flat Major, Op. 90, D. 899”. It isn’t played in front of a live audience, so no coughing, etc.

Schubert wrote eight solo piano pieces called impromptus. An impromptu is a musical work, usually for a solo instrument, in this case, piano. Schubert composed this work the year before he died:

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An Economic Closing Argument for Democrats

The Daily Escape:

Snake River, Grand Teton NP, WY – October 2022 photo by Hilary Bralove

Yesterday, Wrongo said that the Dems should add a focus on inflation and the economy to their closing argument when asking voters to keep them in power. Here’s a suggestion of what that argument might look like from David Doney (@David_Charts on Twitter). Doney draws his stats from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (known as FRED) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Below is an extract from his Twitter feed:

Jobs: More Americans are working than at any time in history: 153 million. The economy now has 500k more jobs than it did before the pandemic. The unemployment rate is 3.5%, the lowest since 1969. With more people working there’s more spending.

Wealth: The bottom half of US households have an average real net worth of $67,200, the highest ever. Under Trump, it was just $34,648. (While Trump gave tax cuts to the wealthy. Biden gave them to the middle and lower class.) Even those in the 50th to 90th percentile are doing better under Biden: average real net worth is now $747,010 vs. $699,530 under Trump. It’s important to remember that these are averages not median net worth numbers, which are lower. Median net worth in the US is $121,700, up 17.6 % from 2016.

Income: Real wages are higher than before the pandemic. Despite what some pundits say, they have outpaced inflation. From February 2020 to last month, wages for production and non-supervisory workers have risen 15.6%, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen 14.6%. So Americans’ purchasing power is greater today than it was in 2019.

The deficit: Our annual federal budget deficit is 50% lower than it was last year. It was $2.8 trillion in fiscal year 2021 and is $1.4 trillion this year, according to CBO estimates. Government income is up and government spending is down: Revenues are $850 billion (or 21%) higher and spending is $548 billion (or 8%) lower.

This continues the historical pattern of Democratic administrations being more fiscally responsible than Republicans. Yet the GOP’s closing argument includes screaming about Democratic spending which they say caused inflation. They are trying to convince Americans who either don’t read or bother to check facts that it’s the Democrats who spend like crazy. The opposite is true.

The economy: The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) hit an all-time high of $20 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2021, and currently is $19.9 trillion (for the second quarter of this year). The Atlanta Fed thinks GDP will grow 2.8% in the third quarter. So no recession just yet. In fact, Doney reports that the six key indicators that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) uses to decide if we’re in a recession  were all up from June to September.

Health insurance: Biden revived the Obamacare signup campaigns and advertising that Trump had eliminated. And now 92% of Americans (and more than 98% of kids) have health insurance, an all-time high. Before Obamacare, close to 18% of Americans had no health insurance.

There’s no doubt that many Americans are worried about the high prices at the grocery store and at the gas pump. But one reason inflation has increased is because people have more money in their pockets. Americans have $4 trillion more in their bank accounts than they did before the pandemic. So they’re working, earning money, and spending it.

The other factor driving inflation is the consolidation of companies into just a handful of major corporations, and the ability of those corporations to jack up prices. Corporate profits are at a 70-year high, yet American corporations are still raising prices. They’re doing so because there’s so little competition.

Republicans in Congress won’t stop corporate price gouging. And we know the GOP will blame Dems for high federal spending (which, as said above, is down 8% so far vs. last year). But the GOP won’t let the facts get in the way of their bad policies. They’ll use this manufactured crisis, along with refusing to raise the debt ceiling, to try to force Democrats to support cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and other social safety net programs.

As blog reader T. Grosso commented yesterday: (Brackets by Wrongo)

“It is such a good question to ask what the Republicans will do if they gain control. We obviously know the answer. They will block anything and everything that might help people so they can blame Biden for [it in] 2024.”

The Democrats’ closing argument needs to include a strong, populist message. They should be saying that Democrats believe people must come before profits. Dan Pfeiffer reports:

“The folks at Data for Progress tested a series of messages on inflation and found that emphasizing corporate greed was an effective pushback on concerns about inflation.”

OTOH, the inflation and economic message must be carefully crafted. It could backfire with some who have missed the current jobs market and are struggling to pay their bills.

Democrats should acknowledge the pain caused by high prices while pointing out that a strong economy and the Party’s fiscal responsibility are helping many people cope with higher prices today and will help to reduce inflation in the near future.

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Sunday Cartoon Blogging – October 2, 2022

Hurricane Ian should remind us of one thing: We’re all in this life together. It’s easy to let your partisan flag fly with “gotchas” since we’re talking about Florida.

We could be smug watching Republicans like Governor DeSantis, who happily stoked outrage about “government tyranny” over vaccines and masks, getting frustrated when his constituents fail to follow evacuation orders.

We could go for the schadenfreude when watching the up-by-your-bootstraps types in Florida line up for government assistance from FEMA. Or what was the best part? Watching DeSantis, whose entire MO is trolling Biden and the Democrats, happily accepting help from Dark Brandon and the federales.

JVL says it best:

“But here’s the thing: We’re not talking about debating points. We’re talking about human beings…. Who’ve had tragedy visited on them. And the only responses should be empathy, charity, and love.”

On to cartoons.

Uncle Sam does his job, regardless of politics:

Some say that stronger hurricanes aren’t an indication that the climate is changing:

Has DeSantis seen the light?

How to win elections:

The Former Guy gets inspiration for next time:

Putin now has fewer options:

Did hitting the asteroid give us any ideas?

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Preventing Stolen Elections

The Daily Escape:

Sunset, Heceta Beach, OR – September 2020 photo by Jack Arnold Photography

From the NYT:

“Activists driven by false theories about election fraud are working to toss out tens of thousands of voter registrations and ballots in battleground states, part of a loosely coordinated campaign that is sowing distrust and threatening further turmoil as election officials prepare for the November midterms.”

Government databases being what they are, voter rolls do contain errors, usually because voters have died or moved without updating their registrations. States typically rely on systematic processes as required by their laws to update or purge voter rolls.

Now, outside partisan Republican groups are attempting to use privately generated lists to “help” clean up the information. The Conservative Partnership Institute, (CPI) which has Mark Meadows as a senior partner, has distributed a playbook that instructs local groups on how to vet voter rolls.

CPI and other groups have challenged at least 65,000 voter registrations across eight counties in Georgia. In Michigan, another group challenged 22,000 ballots from people who had requested absentee ballots for the state’s August primary. And in Texas, residents sent affidavits challenging the eligibility of more than 6,000 voters in Harris County, the state’s largest county, which is home to Houston.

These are challenges by Republicans who are targeting Democratic cities and counties in battleground states. It takes time for local election officials to review each challenge, and in some cases, the challengers are angry and impatient.

What would bring most of this to a halt, is for cities and counties to impose a hefty filing fee that would be refundable in proportion to the number of valid challenges. Checking to see if a challenge is valid or not takes time and effort. States shouldn’t allow partisans to gum up the work of local election officials for free. If there’s no penalty for throwing spaghetti at a wall to see what sticks, everybody will toss some.

In a more positive note about protecting our democratic process, it appears a reform of the Electoral Count Act of 1887 will pass Congress later this year. Abuse of the vague language in that Act led Trump and his co-conspirators to try to overturn the 2020 presidential election on Jan. 6, 2021.

Since Jan. 6, we’ve seen an organized effort by Republicans in many states to fill key, lower profile election jobs with people who will only certify elections that Republicans win. To prevent that from happening again, both Houses have come up with legislation to reform the Act.

In a move that most likely guarantees passage of an electoral reform bill this year, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) announced support for the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022.

Eleven Senate Republicans have already announced they are co-sponsoring it, more than enough for it to avoid filibuster and pass. The Senate Rules Committee on Tuesday voted 14-1 to advance the bill, with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Asshole) being the only committee member to object.

Last week, the House passed its version of Election Reform, with the support of nine Republicans. It’s similar, and both bills make it clear that the vice president’s role in counting Electoral votes at the joint session of Congress is purely ministerial.

That by itself would have saved a lot of bloodshed at the US Capitol on Jan. 6.

The Senate bill ensures that Electoral votes counted by Congress accurately reflect the results of each state’s popular vote for president, something the House bill also does. It also provides clearer guidelines for when eligible candidates for president and vice president can receive federal resources to support their transition to power, something that Trump vindictively stalled after the 2020 election.

It would also substantially increase the threshold for Congress to consider an objection to the Electoral votes of individual states, requiring that at least one-fifth (20%) of each Chamber sign on to such challenges. Currently, that requires just one Senator and one House member. From Sen. Amy Klobuchar, (D-MN):

“Right now, just two people out of 535 members can object and slow down and gum up the counting.”

So it sets a much higher bar.

This is good news for America. One, it helps ensure we continue to have peaceful transfers of power between presidential administrations. And two, we’re seeing bipartisanship around a key Constitutional issue.

It’s clear that these bills must be negotiated into a single bill that is approved before January when there’s a decent chance that Republicans will get control of the House.

Most pundits think it will come to a vote after the November mid-terms. Now we have to hope McConnell doesn’t change his mind.

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