Category: Impeachment

Monday Wake Up Call – February 8, 2021

The Daily Escape:

Winter pond, near Bragg Creek, Alberta, CN – photo by Frank King Photos

Trump’s second impeachment trial starts tomorrow. There is the one charge, “incitement”, and the defenses to that charge will be tossed around a lot over the rest of the week.

The defense will start by saying that there can’t be a trial because Trump is no longer president. That will be shot down.

Beyond that, their main argument will be that Trump didn’t incite anyone, that he was simply exercising his Free Speech rights. They will argue that: Donald Trump did not say, “Invade the Capitol.” Donald Trump did not say, “Break windows.” Donald Trump did not say, “Engage in violence.” He did not say, “Insurrection.” He did not say, “Riot.”

He certainly didn’t say those things, so what’s the rebuttal to the argument?

The House impeachment managers need to make a case that regular people can understand about what incitement is, and what actions would meet a legal definition of incitement.

University of Michigan law professor Len Liehoff laid out the incitement legal criteria in the Detroit Free Press:

  • The speech must be directed toward producing action.
  • It must be likely to result in such action.
  • The action must be unlawful.
  • And the action advocated for must be imminent.

Liehoff explained using a Supreme Court case:

“…the law has developed a very specific and relatively narrow definition of incitement. That definition comes from the US Supreme Court’s 1969 decision in Brandenburg v. Ohio. In the case…Clarence Brandenburg addressed a gathering of Ku Klux Klan members in a field. In a speech that included racist and anti-Semitic remarks, Brandenburg bemoaned the fate of Caucasians, made a vague reference to “revengeance,” and announced that Klan members planned to march in Washington, DC on Independence Day.”

Liehoff goes on: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“The Court held that speech like Brandenburg’s could be criminally punished only where “such advocacy is directed to inciting or producing imminent lawless action and is likely to incite or produce such action.”

Liehoff explains the general idea: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“If I urge you to do something unlawful next Saturday, then you’ll have plenty of time to consider it and talk yourself out of it. But if I spur you to do something now, it tends to short-circuit the reasoning process. You don’t think, you just go.”

Trump’s words and actions on Jan. 6 meet these criteria. As Rep. Liz Cheney, (R-WY) said:

“There’s no question the president formed the mob, the president incited the mob. The president addressed the mob. He lit the flame.”

The unmistakable message was that people should go to the Capitol and disrupt the proceedings in an attempt to keep Trump in office. And that is unlawful conduct. The Senate really is deciding one question: Were the events that followed Trump’s rally the likely result?

Liehoff says they were the inevitable result.

The right loves to attack the left for their speech and actions. The Trump defense team has already said it plans to use videos of Democrats to create a false equivalency. They will attempt to show Democrats using inflammatory language during the BLM demonstrations last summer. They will try to use these same criteria to show Trump did nothing more than Democrats did. That’s untrue, and unequivalent.

The trial could take longer than expected, since David Schoen, a lead member of Trump’s defense team requested that the trial be suspended during the Jewish Sabbath so that he can meet his obligations as an observant Jew.

Will Trump be convicted for incitement? Probably not, since so many Republican Senators have already made up their minds. In essence, we’ll be watching a trial with a rigged jury.

So time to wake up America! Even if the Senate won’t convict, there are other pending cases against Trump. Remember that should he get convicted for money laundering, he won’t be able to hold public office either.

To help you wake up, listen and watch the Black Pumas do a much better live version of their song “Colors” that was played at the Biden inaugural celebration.

This is absolutely beautiful, and is the perfect song if the country has aspirations of unity.

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Saturday Soother – Graham’s Stalling on Garland Edition, February 6, 2020

The Daily Escape:

Quail Mountain, Joshua Tree NP -2020 photo by sandinthehourglass

“When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time.” – Maya Angelou

Are you wondering about why Merrick Garland hasn’t been confirmed as Attorney General? It’s because Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) had refused to hold a confirmation hearing for Judge Garland. He blamed the Senate’s second Trump impeachment trial that starts next week.

Graham had the power to keep the Garland hearing off the calendar because he remained chair of the Senate’s Judiciary Committee until the new Senate organizing resolution was passed last Wednesday. While he ran the committee, Graham denied a request from the incoming committee chairman Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) to hold hearings for Garland starting on Monday, February 8. The impeachment trial starts on the 9th.

Graham insisted that the Senate’s plan to begin Trump’s impeachment trial on Tuesday meant that there would not be enough time to hold Garland’s hearing. Graham said to Durbin:

“Your request is highly unusual….the Senate is about to conduct its first ever impeachment trial of a former president, and only its fourth trial of a president, incumbent or not…But you want us to rush through Judge Garland’s hearing on February 8….An impeachment is no small thing. It requires the Senate’s complete focus,”

Of course, Graham isn’t clean on this. The new AG will be responsible for overseeing any prosecutions that come out of the attempt to overturn the election, and the Senate Judiciary Committee includes three Republican Senators involved in that attempt. Graham was accused by Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger of asking Raffensperger to alter the state’s vote count back in November. Senators Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Josh Hawley (R-MO) both challenged the counting of Electoral Votes.

Marcy Wheeler reports that one of the last things Graham did before turning over the reins was to send a letter to Trump’s Acting AG Monty Wilkinson urging him not to stop work on two investigations:

“We have two properly predicated, ongoing investigations Democrats would rather go away: Special Counsel John Durham’s investigation of the Crossfire Hurricane investigation and the investigation by the Delaware U.S. Attorney’s Office into Hunter Biden….I…respectfully request that you refrain from interfering in any way with either investigation while the Senate processes the nomination of Judge Merrick Garland to the position of Attorney General….”

Graham raises this even though there hasn’t been a peep about these investigations from the Biden Administration. Instead, this may only be relevant because Hunter Biden has a book deal. It’s apparently about his problems with addiction, and comes out in April.

It’s hard to see this as anything except more of an effort by Trumpy Republicans to continue the conspiracy theories Trump waved around in the weeks leading up to the presidential election. In spite of bipartisan support for Garland, Graham’s delaying tactics mean that the DOJ may not have a confirmed Attorney General until late February or early March. Garland is a centrist, the kind of AG you would expect Republicans would welcome as a Democratic nominee. Instead, Republican Senators have sought to prevent or delay his appointments many times.

We all remember how they wouldn’t consider Obama’s nomination of Garland to the Supreme Court because it was 11 months before a newly elected administration would take office.

Few remember that, in September, 1995 when Joe Biden chaired the Judiciary Committee, Garland was nominated to the US Circuit Court of Appeals. But then-minority leader Bob Dole (R-KS) filibustered the nomination. No vote was taken.

In 1997, Clinton renominated Garland, and the Judiciary Committee, then led by Orrin Hatch (R-UT), recommended confirmation, and the Senate, then led by majority leader Bob Dole, confirmed him to the Appeals Court. But, Mitch McConnell was one of 23 “no” votes against Garland.

What is it with Republicans and Merrick Garland?

Time to forget about politics. Here in Connecticut, we’re still digging out from about 18″ of snow that is finally starting to melt. It’s Saturday, and we need to make it to tomorrow, when America will huddle in front of our TVs and worship a bowl of guacamole: Brady, or Mahomes?

To help you get through until then, let’s start by brewing up a cup of Panama Hacienda La Esmeralda Gesha coffee ($56.00/8 ounces), from the brewers at Chicago’s Big Shoulders Coffee. It is said to be sweet-tart with a very full, syrupy mouthfeel, and a flavor-saturated finish resonates on and on. YMMV.

Now, settle back in a chair by a window and watch Mumford & Sons play their cover of the Nine Inch Nails tune, “Hurt”, performed live at the 2019 Rock Werchter Festival. This song was covered most notably by Johnny Cash just before his death:

Marcus Mumford’s voice can heal just about anything. It’s needed in this time of global grief.

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Monday Wake Up Call – Fire the Lawyers Edition, February 1, 2021

The Daily Escape:

Waimea Canyon, Kauai HI – photo by cosmosch. Called the “Grand Canyon” of Hawaii.

From CNN:

“…Trump’s five impeachment defense attorneys have left a little more than a week before his trial is set to begin, according to people familiar with the case, amid a disagreement over his legal strategy.”

CNN said that Trump wanted the attorneys to argue there had been massive election fraud and that the presidential election was stolen from him, rather than focus on the legality of convicting a president after he’s left office. Also, the attorneys had not been paid any advance fees and their letter of intent was never signed.

Isn’t it predictable that Trump will refuse to employ the only semi-sound legal strategy available to him? He has a valid defense to say he had no intention to foment sedition, and besides, the Senate has no jurisdiction, since he’s a private citizen.

But instead, he wants to employ, with zero evidence, the “election was stolen” defense.

The House impeachment article charges Trump with “incitement of insurrection” in the invasion of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 by a pro-Trump mob. Let’s hope that Trump tries to represent himself. It’s possible that an incompetent defense that doesn’t address the charge may be sufficient to allow 17 Republicans to vote to convict him.

OTOH, Trump may not know the law, but he knows this jury.

What went down at the Capitol was an insurrection, not a cotillion. So let’s watch those Republican sycophants listen to him spout more bullshit that he’s completely and obviously unable to prove.

The election was stolen strategy forces Trump to make an argument that the insurrection was “justified”, however nothing in the 2020 election justifies insurrection. But, he would just love that platform. One more chance to put himself in front of the cameras, and play to his base. One more chance for them to declare Trump a victim.

But what would he say when being sworn in? He’s asked to swear to tell the truth, whole truth and nothing but the truth. Opinions differ.

There’s no reason he has to be represented by a lawyer. Impeachment is a political process, not a legal one. However, it is likely that ethics rules would cover the actions of a lawyer representing Trump at the impeachment trial. As non-lawyer, Trump would not be so constrained.

Testifying on his own behalf may be the best chance that enough Senate Republicans could be shamed into convicting him. Let him face 100 Senators with the argument that he actually won by millions of vapor votes.

Eventually, when there is a roll call vote, the choice is either to vote “Guilty” or “Not Guilty”. But the two real choices facing Republican Senators are “Do I show minimal integrity, or utter debasement?” We’ll see if once again, they’ll choose the latter.

Trump knows it’s likely that there are 45 Senate votes in the bag to acquit. He just wants to continue the Big Lie propaganda war. Trump’s already using the stolen election and attempted coup as a Creation Myth for his political movement.

But the facts of the case are well known to everyone. We were all eyewitnesses. And the Senate will vote according to some combination of conscience and political necessity, regardless of evidence or arguments.

If conviction of the one count of Impeachment doesn’t happen, let’s at least look forward to a criminal indictment of Trump on seditious activity. It could happen as the DOJ learns more about the coordination by the coup leaders, and their connection to Trump.

Time to wake up America! Once again we will take a roll call vote that shows how craven the Republican Party has become.

To help you wake up, Wrongo returns to a live performance by the Killers doing their anthem “When You Were Young” performed live at the Royal Albert Hall in London, just over a decade ago. Wrongo has said before that British crowds are the best. It makes the Killers’ Live at The Royal Albert Hall an all-time favorite live rock performance.

The crowd knows the music, the band is energized throughout. See the entire concert if you have time. They picked the venue specifically for the DVD, then made tickets available through various chapters of their fan clubs. Everybody in that crowd is a die-hard fan.

Here is “When You Were Young”:

Make sure to catch the “Song Exploder” episode on Netflix that delves into the making of the song.

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Sunday Cartoon Blogging – January 31, 2021

Trump left office with numerous lawsuits against both him and his administration still pending. That was part of a run-out-the-clock strategy to avoid accountability while president.

Shortly after Trump’s presidency ended, so too did the two lawsuits claiming he used the Oval Office to enrich himself, violating the Constitution’s Emoluments Clause barring federal officeholders from accepting certain gifts and payments while in office.

Some legal actions, like efforts to obtain his tax returns, are continuing, but experts say that while he was in office, Trump’s run out the clock strategy worked. Before Trump took office, it was rare for presidents to petition the Supreme Court for an emergency stay of a lower court ruling. Those stays had the effect of allowing a federal policy to go forward while a legal challenge plays out. Trump treated these requests as a standard litigation tactic. From the Hill: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“The combined administrations of former Presidents GW Bush and Obama made just eight such requests over 16 years, with only four requests being granted.

In Trump’s first three years in office, his Justice Department asked for 29 emergency stays. In response, the court granted relief 17 times. A number of stays were still in effect when Trump’s term ended Jan. 20, meaning a final ruling is unlikely to ever be reached in the underlying cases…”

Exactly as envisioned by The Founders. On to cartoons.

Republicans will let him skate again:

The GOP elephant never remembers:

Some DC pets have been there a long time:

Republicans resume the position:

Evolution of the elephant:

Not so sleepy:

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Saturday Soother – January 23, 2021

The Daily Escape:

Lenticular clouds over the Presidential Range, Bretton Woods, NH – 2021 photo by Benjamin Williamson Photography. That’s Mt. Washington in the center.

Biden’s inauguration was wonderful TV viewing. Wrongo has watched every inaugural from JFK to Biden, and this one was the most satisfying. Maybe because its virtual nature meant that we were able to see many small moments of joy and artistry. Or maybe, it was just because the VIP seats were at home. Sara Jacobs, (D-CA) is a new member of Congress. She posted on Instagram:

“I’ve been in Congress for three Wednesdays. The first, an insurrection, the second, an impeachment, and the third, an inauguration. Let’s hope next Wednesday is as inspiring as this one.”

Couldn’t agree more. Biden’s speech was a worthy effort, hitting the right tone, and many key points. He pushed back pretty hard on lies and disinformation and assault on our democracy and institutions.

The real stars of the inauguration were others. Amanda Gorman, the young Black poet, gave all of us hope that the kids are alright. Lady Gaga’s voice was/is stunning. Wrongo really enjoyed John Legend singing Nina Simone’s arrangement of “Feeling Good” from 1965’s “Roar of the Grease Paint, Smell of the Crowd”.

The Ant Clemons/Justin Timberlake “Better Days” performance in and outside of the Stax museum in Memphis, TN was uplifting. Demi Lovato, who we’ve featured in the past, did Bill Withers’ “Lovely Day” as an upbeat Zoom performance with health care workers. The closing “Firework” by Katy Perry, led to this image of the First Couple:

What moved you on Wednesday?

Nielsen reported that the Biden inaugural had more viewers than Trump’s in 2017. According to Nielsen, 39.87 million people watched the half-hour swearing-in ceremony over the nation’s six major TV-news outlets, compared with 38.35 million viewers for the 2017 event.

But back to reality: It’s going to be game on next Monday, as the House will transmit Articles of Impeachment to the Senate. The Right-wing knives will be back out, as before. They will say that Biden really isn’t interested in unity. Can Schumer get 17 Republican votes to convict Trump? We’ll see.

Convicting Trump will happen if the pro-democracy wing of the Republican Party is larger than we think. The other side is the Sedition Caucus, led by Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Josh Hawley (R-MO), but it contains many, many others.

Senate Republicans now have to deal with their Florida retiree. This is precisely why so many Republicans have jumped on the bandwagon for “unity”. They’re saying: “Please don’t force us to make impossible choices!” Some Republican Senators are saying that their party cannot convict Trump and survive. They may be correct. If Mitch McConnell (R-KY), votes to convict Trump, there will be an effort to remove McConnell as Leader of the (now) Republican Minority.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said this week that: (brackets by Wrongo)

“…any Republican-leader type who embraces [conviction] is doing a lot of damage to the Party….There’s no way to be a successful Republican Party without having President Trump working with all of us and all of us working with him…”

That says it all: Their arguments have nothing to do with Trump’s guilt, innocence, or suitability for future office. They are solely political. They’re saying that it is impossible for the Republican Party to be a contender for power if they can’t keep most of Trump’s loyal followers inside the Party.

Impeachment or not, there’s a fight coming in the Republican Party. As Jonathan Last says, it’s a fight between the Sedition Caucus, and those Republicans who try to pretend that the last four years never happened. Sadly, in any fight between true believers and those willing to face reality, the true believers usually have the edge.

It is in America’s best interest that the Sedition Caucus lose, whoever their opponents are.

But on this Saturday, we feel that a weight has been lifted from the backs of Americans. We have a window through which we perceive that something good may happen. So take a break. Sit back, and listen to Tim McGraw and Tyler Hubbard perform their song of unity, “Undivided”, that we saw on Celebration America. Here’s the studio version:

Lyrics:

I think it’s time to come together
You and I can make a change
Maybe we can make a difference
Make the world a better place
Look around and love somebody
We’ve been hateful long enough
Let the Good Lord reunite us
‘Til this country that we love’s
Undivided

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Sunday Cartoon Blogging – End of an Error Edition

How about some good news for a change?

Flint Michigan may finally get some justice: Former governor Rick Snyder was charged with two misdemeanor counts of willful neglect of duty in his handling of Flint’s water crisis. Six others were also charged, including the former director of the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services and the state’s former chief medical executive. They were both charged with involuntary manslaughter related to the deaths of Michiganders.

Wrongo was delighted that Biden named Jaime Harrison as Chair of the DNC. His commitment to retail funds raising and voter turnout should help change the Democrat’s chances of winning in the southern states. Harrison has done what others haven’t — organizing and getting out the vote in marginalized communities, zip code by zip code. If Harrison can keep the Party’s energy high, we may have a chance to keep the majority and win more seats in both Houses in 2022.

Oh, and TRUMP’S PRESIDENCY IS OVER, very soon. On to cartoons.

The empty promises of the past four years:

Members of Vanilla ISIS are being brought to justice:

It shouldn’t be this way:

Even GOP Congresscritters were scared:

The impeachment game:

NOW you’re ready to heal?

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Demographic Analysis of Pro-Trump Congressional Districts

The Daily Escape:

Three Sisters, Goblin Valley State Park, UT – photo by jonnyboy_wanderlust

As Wrongo writes this, the House has voted for a second Trump Impeachment. The process began with votes on rules and procedures. Most Republicans argued that impeachment would be divisive. That’s rich, given that for four years they have supported and encouraged the divisive lies and actions of Donald Trump.

But now, it’s suddenly critical that we “heal.” Of course it is.

A majority of House Republicans objected to the certification of Electoral College votes from the swing states of Arizona and Pennsylvania. Even more Republicans voted against the House motion to ask Mike Pence to begin the process required by the 25th Amendment to remove Trump from office.

Now it’s on to a second impeachment. A grand total of ten House Republicans (out of 211) voted along with all House Democrats to impeach Trump. According to the WaPo, McConnell has decided not to convene the Senate for an emergency trial, meaning the trial will fall to the newly Democrat-controlled Senate after January 20.

Back to the House Republicans: Jacob Whiton wrote an interesting demographic and economic analysis of the constituencies represented by the 139 House Republicans who objected to the certification of at least one state’s Electoral College results. His aim is to clarify the demographics of where right-wing authoritarianism has taken root. Overall he found that:

“The Republican Party’s most Pro-Trump House members have been elected by…white homeowners in the fast-growing exurban fringe. They feel the social status traditionally associated with their identity as white Christians is being degraded and that left wing political movements pose a threat to their livelihoods and political power. In reaction, they have lashed themselves to a movement within the Republican Party led by President Trump that seeks to defend the privileges of property-owning white Americans in our political system, economy, and public life.”

The districts represented by the most committed Pro-Trump Republicans are fast-growing, rapidly diversifying suburbs. Places where inequalities between white homeowners and their non-white neighbors have been shrinking, and where low voter turnout has helped deliver reliable Republican victories.

Residents of objectors’ districts are more than twice as likely as residents of other Republican districts to live in “sparse suburban areas.” These districts are among the fastest-growing districts in the country, with population growth outpacing that in districts represented by Democrats or other Republicans over the last 20 years.

Almost all of this growth has been among non-white groups, specifically Latinos and Asian Americans, resulting in a dramatic shift in the demographic composition of these districts:

In the objectors’ districts, residents under the age of 18 are 3.6 times more likely to be Hispanic and 1.6 times more likely to be Black or Asian American than those over the age of 65. This means that in these districts, debates about Social Security and Medicare, public education and housing are highly polarized.

District constituents of the Republican objectors tend to have the lowest levels of formal educational attainment. In their districts, on average, 68% of white homeowners do not have a four-year degree and their median home value is the lowest:

Whites in Republican objectors’ districts are considerably more likely to own their own home and earn higher incomes than other racial groups, except for Asian Americans. But White homeowners’ perception of loss of status relative to upwardly mobile Hispanic and Asian American households is a key social context which is driving Trumpism’s nativist politics.

White evangelical Christians have been Trump’s most unwavering base of support. In more than half of Republican objectors’ districts, evangelicals account for at least a fifth of constituents, making them far more likely to represent evangelicals in Congress than other Republicans or Democrats.

White evangelical Protestants stand far apart in their politics. The Public Religion Research Institute’s 2020 American Values survey found that they are the only group where a majority expresses a preference for living in a country “made up of people who follow the Christian faith”.

They are the only group for whom abortion and terrorism rank in their top three most important issues. They are also the least likely to agree that President Trump has encouraged white supremacist groups, although a majority of Americans overall do.

Whiton found that workers in the Republican objectors’ districts are more likely to be employed in sectors of the economy Trump has routinely identified as most threatened by the political left: mining and oil and natural gas extraction, heavy manufacturing, and law enforcement.

Whiton concludes with a note of optimism: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“The fact that Republican objectors command the least popular support among their own constituents of any congressional elected officials in the country is both a testament to their effectiveness in entrenching their own power and also the foundation on which we must ground our hopes for political change to end minority rule.”

Perhaps we should focus our voter turnout activities in these Republican objectors’ districts.

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Sunday Cartoon Blogging – January 10, 2021

Since Wednesday, there’s been a lot of talk about what to call what happened at the Capitol. Biden said the same day that: “It borders on sedition.” The Federal Criminal Code defines “seditious conspiracy” as an effort by two or more people:

“to conspire to overthrow, put down, or to destroy by force the Government of the United States, or to levy war against them, or to oppose by force the authority thereof, or by force to prevent, hinder or delay the execution of any law of the United States, or by force to seize, take or possess any property of the United States contrary to the authority thereof.”

Sure sounds like it was Sedition Wednesday in Washington DC. Geoffrey R. Stone, a legal scholar at the University of Chicago opined:

“Normally, it refers to speech that advocates action or beliefs that are designed to overthrow or undermine the lawful processes of government…”

An attempt to prevent Congress from acknowledging the results of the presidential election is certainly an attempt to prevent the lawful functioning of the federal government. Sounds like sedition to Wrongo.

So, let’s get them arrested, and tried ASAP.

A side note: What is truly difficult to fathom is that our Capitol was taken down in less than an hour by the folks from “Duck Dynasty.” DC is among the most policed cities in the world. There are 36 separate Law Enforcement Agencies in the District and yet, the takeover easily happened. On to cartoons.

Capitol Police decision rules for sending backup:

Here’s what I did. After it was done, I blamed Antifa:

Pence paid for his brief moment of courage:

Trump’s cue cards:

Stacy Abrams delivered for Biden and the Democrats:

The Joker: A view of Trump from Mexico by Antonio Rodriguez Garcia:

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Monday Cartoon Blogging – February 10, 2020

The New Hampshire debate is behind us, and the primary election is tomorrow. So what happens next? Do we move on towards November’s election and leave impeachment in the rear view, or does Congress “refresh the screen” and continue the investigations?

It’s one thing to run for president on “anyone but Trump”. It’s completely different for House Democrats to attempt more investigating while running for Congress. There are 31 House Democrats representing districts where Trump won in 2016. Most of them voted for impeachment, and they would probably be unhappy with further investigations.

Only one presidential candidate is willing to take on further investigations, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). But, at this point, do any of the current crop of Democratic contenders appear capable of beating Trump?

We should remember that doing that requires someone who can win Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Or alternatively, flip Florida and North Carolina. Running up the vote tally in New York and California are meaningless. Maybe it’s time to take a ride in the limo that’s double parked out on the street:

Steve Bannon was on Bill Maher’s “Real Time”. He said that if the Dems consider running a Republican like Bloomberg, it shows how debilitated the Democratic Party is. He may be right. And they may have to.

Mayo Pete eclipses Biden as the leading Moderate:

Trump made a mockery of the Medal of Freedom:

Trump’s post-acquittal firings brought a visit from Abe:

Pelosi wasn’t the only one who ripped it good:

America saw what they did:

Senate Republicans’ logic:

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Saturday Soother – Brexit Edition, February 1, 2020

The Daily Escape:

Sunrise, Castle Mountain, Banff, Alberta, CN – 2019 photo by anitajwani

(Sunday Cartoons will appear on Monday)

Yesterday, Brexit became official. The UK is no longer part of the European Union.

The decision to stay or go consumed the UK to the exclusion of all else for four years. But listening to the BBC, they now are barely talking about it. For all the arguing about “Leave” or “Remain”, nothing much was really said about what would happen once things got concrete.

It may be hard for Americans to understand, since we are seduced by British accents, but the Tories are dumber than Republicans. One example of what changed on Friday, as the UK Independent observed:

“Brexit day is here, so let us celebrate our biggest victory – the freedom to drink very bad wine.”

So now comes the hard part. Britain has until the end of this year to make a new trade deal with Europe, the US, and with other non-EU countries. The EU is the UK’s largest trading partner. In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £291 billion (45% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £357 billion (53% of all UK imports).

Services accounted for 41% of the UK’s exports to the EU in 2018. Financial services and other business services (including legal, accounting, advertising, research and development, architectural, and engineering) are important categories of services exports to the EU. They made up just over half of UK service exports to the EU in 2018.

Because of the EU’s structure, the parliaments of 27 countries will have to agree to any new deal. Imagine what a “No Deal” would mean starting in 2021: Both Britain and the EU would stand to lose a big chunk of their trade revenue.

It will be fascinating to see which side has the greater negotiating power. For example, the UK only accounts for just 6% of German exports of goods. It accounts for 6.8% of French exports.

The US needs a new trade deal with Britain as well. That deal will have to be approved by the US Congress. The US will want open access to the British markets for its agricultural and healthcare industries. That will conflict with Britain’s own farmers, food regulations and its National Health Service.

Britain will be negotiating these two large, and very complicated deals under severe time pressure. The EU might offer to extend the deadline, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said there will be no extensions. Despite Johnson’s promise, comprehensive trade deals take several years to complete, averaging 7-8 years. So there will be little deals announced in steps, with the simplest to agree areas finished first.

There are also the national issues: North Ireland will be integrated economically with Ireland. Having a customs border in the North Sea may prove unwieldy. Scotland preferred to remain with the EU, and voted “Remain”. After Parliament finally voted to Leave, Scotland asked to hold a referendum on leaving the UK, but were turned down by the Tories. They may try again to secede over the Prime Minister’s objections.

These new trade deals may be on less favorable terms than what the Tories told the voters. As an example, one argument for Brexit was that the UK would regain exclusive fishing rights within its economic zone. But some EU countries will likely ask for additional fishing rights in British waters in exchange for something Britain urgently needs.

We won’t know the outcome for five to ten years from now, but it’s likely that Great Britain will be less great than it is today.

What with the impeachment show drawing to a conclusion without calling witnesses, and the impending food fest of Super Bowl Sunday, it’s time for our Saturday Soother.

Our one oasis of calm in a week of crisis.

Let’s start by brewing up a big mug of Ethiopia Shaskiso Natural ($18/12oz.) roasted by Michigan’s own Battlecreek Coffee Roasters. The roaster says it tastes of strawberry and cocoa supported by spice-toned florals.

Now, settle back by the fire and listen to Telemann’s Concerto in D major for Violin, Cello, Trumpet and Strings, played live by the Bremer Barockorchester, in 2015:

Those who read the Wrongologist in email can view the video here.

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