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Monday Wake Up Call – October 31, 2022

The Daily Escape:

Monument Valley rainstorm – October, 2022 photo by Martine Hubscher

Wrongo and Ms. Right are heading home to the land of disputed elections after a very fine week in London. We hadn’t been to England since 2019, and it was at least a little sad to learn that some of the local places near our hotel had succumbed to the pandemic. On the bright side, our favorite Indian place was open and thriving.

We can’t start Monday without acknowledging the death of Jerry Lee Lewis. He was the last one standing of the founding generation of rock ‘n rollers. Wrongo knows all of you are saying “But, what about Elvis”?

Early Elvis changed the world, but he died young and was already long past his peak when he did. Bill Haley, Chuck Berry, Little Richard, and Buddy Holly all exited before the Killer. None had his longevity. And that along with his talent is why he’s a greater artist than almost anyone of that generation of the major early rock stars. Some might quibble and say what about Sam Cooke? Or Dion?

As for Jerry Lee’s personal life, you know the story and it wasn’t good. He may be the ultimate example of differentiating between the art and the artist.

One wonderful and overlooked part of the Killer’s early career was an impromptu jam session involving Elvis Presley, Jerry Lee Lewis, Carl Perkins, and Johnny Cash made on December 4, 1956, at the Sun Record Studios in Memphis, Tennessee. An article about the session was published in the Memphis Press-Scimitar under the title “Million Dollar Quartet”.

A recording of the session was released in Europe in 1981 as The Million Dollar Quartet with 17 tracks. Subsequently, it inspired a musical called the “Million Dollar Quartet” that played on Broadway and in the West End. Both are closed now, but it does occasionally travel in the US. Wrongo loved it when he saw it. See it if you can.

Regarding the hammering attack on Paul Pelosi by a Right Wing MAGA fellow traveler, it should be seen as an assassination attempt on the highest ranking Democrat in Congress and the woman who is second in line of succession to the presidency.

CNN is reporting that the man who attacked Pelosi had with him a bag that contained multiple zip ties.

This is all part of a pattern. First there was the assassination plot against the Governor of Michigan. Then there was a violent insurrection on Jan. 6, the attempted coup. These were followed by assassination threats/plots against multiple Democratic members of Congress and the members of the Jan. 6 Committee.

Now, on the verge of a very important midterm election, the Speaker of the House’s husband is beaten. From Brian Kass an Atlantic contributor and an associate professor at University College London:

“This week, 3 men were convicted of trying to kidnap Gov. Whitmer, a man pleaded guilty to threatening Rep. Eric Swalwell, a right wing conspiracy theorist tried to murder Speaker Pelosi, shortly after Bannon, who called to behead Fauci, was sentenced to prison. This isn’t random.”

“There are dangerous people of all stripes. But Republicans, unlike Democrats, are actively encouraging violence, posing with guns in incendiary ads that speak of “hunting” opponents, or depict shooting actors who play Biden and Pelosi. Plus, there’s QAnon and the election lies.”

Still more: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“When a Supreme Court justice was threatened, Democrats didn’t just condemn it, they passed a law which Biden signed to give them more protection and security. This isn’t remotely a both sides thing. Which Biden adviser called to behead a public health official? Get real.”

Finally:

“Regardless, I fear that a) there will be assassinations; and b) political violence will be a routine feature of US political life, particularly around elections, for the foreseeable future. It’s a really dark place for our politics and it’s being caused, mostly, by Republicans.”

A Trump supporter attempted to assassinate a Congressional leader. That should be seismic political news. And yet, it’s just another news story. The growing awareness that we are no longer willing to settle policy disagreements with elections will dismantle the American experiment.

Time to wake up America! You only have a few days left to vote. You only have a few days to turn the tide on the MAGA movement. To help you wake up, listen to Jerry Lee do something you’ve probably haven’t heard.

Here’s “Me and Bobby McGee” a tune written by Kris Kristofferson and Fred Foster. It was originally performed by Roger Miller, but we all remember Janis Joplin’s cover of the song, recorded a few days before her death in October 1970.

In 1971, Jerry Lee took Kristofferson’s song and turned it into something only Jerry Lee could do:

Saturday Soother, London Edition – October 29, 2022

The Daily Escape:

The Old Floral Hall, Covent Garden, Royal Opera House, London UK – October 2022 iPhone photo by Wrongo

We’re nearing the end of our week in London. Yesterday, we visited the Royal Opera House (ROH) in Covent Garden. We got to watch ballet rehearsals by the Royal Ballet Company which shares the ROH, and briefly listened in on a rehearsal by Lisette Oropesa who plays the title role in “Alcina” by Handel. Alcina turns her male lovers into plants, an idea that inspired much mirth from Ms. Right.

Wrongo saw Nureyev perform at the ROH in 1976, when he was working for the big American bank. That was ages before the remodel of the ROH which added a huge addition in 1997-1999. In the 1970s, the Old Floral Hall in the photo above was at street level. Now it has been refurbished, halved in size, and raised to the second floor inside the ROH addition. It is used as an event space and cocktail bar.

We heard over here about the good US economic news. And it wasn’t just about GDP growth. There was also good news on inflation. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, which the Fed watches closely, increased by 4.2%, down significantly from 7.3% last quarter. And the CPI for the last three months rose by 0.5%, equating to an annual rate of 2%. If it were to keep up for the next nine months, that’s at the Fed’s inflation target. Pity that the media aren’t talking about this, but mostly about how the economy is still slowing.

One thing that caught Wrongo’s eye from abroad was Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government’s release of its 44th youth poll: (emphasis by Wrongo)

“A national poll released today by the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School indicates that 40% of 18-to-29-year-olds state that they will “definitely” vote in the November 8 midterm elections, on track to match or potentially exceed the record-breaking 2018 youth turnout in a midterm election. Young voters prefer Democratic control of Congress 57% to 31% (up five points for Democrats since spring), but 12% remain undecided.”

John Della Volpe, Kennedy School director, believes we will see a Gen Z wave in November:

“Youth today vote at levels that far exceed millennials, Gen X, and baby boomers when they were under 30.”

In the 2020 presidential election, voters 18-29 voted in even greater numbers than in 2018: closer to 50%. Yet, if turnout by younger voters is in the 40% range, that’s not something to celebrate. It means that younger voters are leaving a lot of political power on the table.

According to the US Census, people over 65 outvoted them by over 15 points in 2018. Political power is right there waiting for people to grab it. That only will happen if more people turn to vote.

Wrongo got an email from his Democratic Congressperson Jahana Hayes, saying that she was trailing by one point in the highly respected Emerson College poll which says:

“The economy is the most important issue for 46% of Connecticut 5th District voters, followed by abortion access (16%), and threats to democracy (14%).”

Hayes is a first-term Representative who was comfortably elected in 2020. While the results are within the ± 4.3% margin of error in the poll, this isn’t a seat the Dems thought was in play. This is more proof that the Dems are flailing with their messaging on inflation and the economy, despite the fact that inflation is falling and the economy is still growing.

But we also have to remember that if the GOP takes the House, they’ll have absolutely no incentive to even try to help make economic conditions any better.

In fact, they are actually incented to try to make it worse. Why? Because the Democrats will still control the White House and may also control the Senate for the next couple of years. It’s a safe bet that Republicans will do whatever they can to increase the chaos on the economic front, so that they can continue to blame Democrats when Trump runs again in 2024.

But we really have no idea which Party will control the House and Senate, and we may not know for sure until a week or two after November 8.

With Wrongo and Ms. Right in London, you’re on your own for how to relax on this Saturday. To help with that, watch and listen to Sinfonity TV Guitar’s incredible performance of Bach’s “Toccata & Fugue”, recorded live in Segovia, Spain. To watch 15 rock guitar musicians playing it in unison is astounding. Take your collective hats off to the musicians who play it:

Who says rock and classical music don’t mix?

Letter From London

The Daily Escape:

Suite, Bloomsbury Hotel, London England – October 2022 iPhone photo by Wrongo

This isn’t how Wrongo and Ms. Right usually travel. We landed in London after a two-hour delay taking off from Newark Airport in NJ. So we were pretty tired when we got to the Bloomsbury, our favorite hotel over here. That led to another two-hour delay because they didn’t have the room we had specified. So after a few curt words from Wrongo, and support from our friends at Goodspeed, we got this spectacular upgrade above. It’s about three times the size of the room we thought we were getting. We plan to enjoy it to the fullest.

The Bloomsbury Hotel began life in 1928 as a YWCA. It is located in the Bloomsbury district of London, on the same block as the British Museum and a short walk from the theaters in London’s West End. The Irish poet Seamus Heaney was a long-term resident of the hotel. He donated many first edition books to what is now named the hotel’s Seamus Heaney library. Our suite has a portrait of Heaney painted by Ann Witheridge in its entrance.

By the time you are reading this, Rishi Sunak is the UK’s newest Prime Minister. He’s the youngest UK PM since Napoleonic times. He is also the first PM of color in UK history. Nobody misses the departed Liz Truss, and most feel a sense of relief with Sunak, although it can be difficult to see much ideological difference between them. He’s a Brexiteer, and a pro-growth fiscal conservative at a time when inflation is rampant, and economic growth is low. Most citizens are shaking their heads about how they came to have a series of incompetent governments.

Sunak is also a laissez-faire true believer. He’s wealthy, and a solid Tory Party company man. We’ll see if a company man can turn his country around in the face of the ideological splits within the Tory Party, and the need to help the faltering UK economy.

Soaring inflation and increased government borrowing usually means a government must tax more. But the Torys are like the US Republican Party, believing that tax cuts resolve all economic problems. As expected, Sunak’s economic improvement plan relies on cutting the country’s debt while not lowering taxes. Their austerity plan won’t add jobs or cut inflation, so hang on for another wild neoliberal ride.

Our purpose in visiting London is to see plays. Sometimes they illustrate interesting social differences between Broadway and the West End. First, we saw “Get up, Stand up, the Bob Marley Musical”. The music was great as expected, but one difference was that the audience in the expensive seats in the front rows of the orchestra (called the stalls in England) was about 20% Black, something that you would rarely see on Broadway. Make of that what you will.

The second show we saw was “Marvellous”, a play about a person with disabilities who has an improbable and successful life. Neil Baldwin is a person who transcended learning difficulties to be awarded a British Empire Medal by HRH Queen Elizabeth II in 2019 and an honorary degree from a prestigious university.

With all the laughter and slapstick, you almost don’t notice the questions Marvellous raises about the terrible treatment of people with learning disabilities. We have the same problem in the US.

If you think we’re farther ahead, please consider the media’s reaction to stroke victim Democrat John Fetterman after his debate with Republican Dr. Oz. Axios delivered the conventional wisdom about someone who’s different:

”Capitol Hill’s reaction to the Pennsylvania Senate debate was brutal for Democratic nominee John Fetterman, from Democrats and Republicans alike.”

Axios went on to say that Fetterman struggled at times to respond to the moderators’ questions. So the narrative became someone with a career as a glib television star vs. a big bear of a guy who is recovering from a stroke.

A snake-oil salesman vs. a guy who actually has experience in governing and politics. And who does our worse than shit media say looked bad? The guy with aphasia.

Obviously, because he isn’t like the rest of us.

Our media, which normally covers debates solely to promote the zingers, managed to overlook the one good zinger in the Fetterman/Oz debate. From Fetterman:

“Why don’t you pretend that you live in Vermont, instead of Pennsylvania, and run again against Bernie Sanders? Because all you can do is talk about Bernie Sanders.”

Because of Fetterman’s aphasia, there were times when he didn’t answer questions very well. Because of Oz’s dishonesty, there were times when he didn’t answer questions at all.

Fetterman can overcome his aphasia and serve PA well in the US Senate. Oz will never be anything but a con man.

From 3,500 miles away, it increasingly looks like the fate of American democracy rests on a few contingent events coming out the right way on November 8.

Sure would be helpful if the media played it straight.

Sunday Cartoon Blogging – October 23, 2022

(Today we’re leaving for London. Regular columns will resume on 11/1. In the meantime, if turbulence occurs, keep your tray tables in their upright and locked position and your hands inside the blog.)

John Dick, CEO of Civic Science, has a weekly newsletter that is worth your time. This week he asks:

“What if we’re just talking ourselves into all of this? Admittedly, I partied too much in college to get good enough grades to go to a respectable grad school to become an economist. I’m out of my league here.”

Dick wonders why economists are so sure that we can’t escape inflation unless we head into a deep recession. He also wonders (as does Wrongo) if currently, there’s a doomsday loop at work. It’s true that there are times when regardless of the news, the stock market goes down. More from Dick:

“Oh no! The job market is too good. Wages are growing too fast! Employees have too much leverage in the workplace! The dollar’s too strong! People’s homes are worth too much! We’re all screwed!!!”

The news media dutifully reinforces the doomsday loop. And who proffers answers? Very few. So, around we go, blaming the politicians in one Party for something they cannot solve, and neither can the other Party. And thus, the prophecy fulfills itself. On to cartoons.

This passes for an answer from the elephant:

How to solve a problem like Hershel:

When you weren’t worried about democracy:

The GOP’s scariest story:

There are waay too many political ads:

Turkeys are where you find them:

Saturday Soother – October 22, 2022

The Daily Escape:

Sunset, Cranberry bog, Yarmouth, MA – October 2022 photo by Jean Burns

Wrongo and Ms. Right are leaving on Sunday for a week in London. We’re arriving there just as the horse race for whoever will become the UK’s next prime minister will be clear to all. We’re expecting it to dominate the British news while we’re there.

On September 10, Wrongo said he wasn’t a fan of the now departed Liz Truss. He also said it was hard to believe her effort to revive the zombie concept that is trickle-down economics would go well with the UK already in a recession. She lasted just 44 days in office. Here’s a hot take from England:

Seems like a lot of turmoil for a small, low growth, densely populated country.

Truss’s sin was simple. Her economic plan was designed to satisfy libertarian think tanks and fans of Ronald Reagan and Margret Thatcher rather than to be something workable. Republicans in America do this kind of thing because we can, since the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. That means we can go almost as far into debt as we want without the markets panicking.

But the UK doesn’t have that luxury. So there’s a limit to how many favors they can do to their own fabulously rich citizens.

The policy that got Truss thrown out of No. 10 Downing Street was a copy of the foundational Republican US domestic agenda, as practiced from Reagan to Trump. That is, cut taxes for the rich and corporations, then hope it eventually creates tax revenue before it forces spending cuts.

And the British financial markets seem to actually care about the well-being of their country’s economy. However, American markets seem to care only about maximizing share prices and the after-tax compensation of top-level executives.

US Conservatives were delighted when Truss became PM. On September 23, Larry Kudlow said on FOX:

“The new British prime minister, Liz Truss, has laid out a terrific supply-side economic growth plan which looks a lot like the basic thrust of Kevin McCarthy’s Commitment to America plan.”

Needless to say, like Truss, Republicans are also willing to do unfunded tax cuts and call it a growth agenda. They’re also willing to fail to extend America’s borrowing limit, in order to make their agenda happen. The GOP would try to hold the Democratic president hostage in order to share some political responsibility for that action, never mind that an American debt default would also hold a gun to the global economy.

That isn’t possible in the country that brought you Maggie Thatcher. They toss out their incompetent supply-siders. The elephant in the room of the UK’s chaos and crisis is 2016’s Brexit. Even though Brexit has brought about low GDP growth, it remains a hard right political project rooted in a mythical British past.

Brexit’s Tory supporters didn’t care about the hard economic evidence that Brexit would be an act of economic self-harm. And the political divisions Brexit caused in the Tory party remain a problem as they now seek to unite behind another sacrificial PM. From David Frum:

“The problem is that you’re not eligible for the captaincy unless you agree it was a brilliant idea to scupper the ship in 2016 – and can convincingly act baffled why it has been sinking ever since,”

If America still has the ability to learn, it would be great if they studied this Tory disaster.

It would be nice if American voters would really punish Republicans when they fuck up and tank the economy again. And not just by electing a Democratic president, as they did in 1992 and 2008 when the economy went south.

OTOH, if anything can get Joe Biden reelected, it’s a Republican-led Congress in 2023 and 2024. They will screw things up just as thoroughly as Liz Truss has screwed the pooch in Britain. Then, we’ll have to see if they’ll ever be blamed for it.

Enough foreign politics for today. It’s time for our Saturday Soother, where we consider raking the leaves that are suddenly carpeting the Fields of Wrong but decide to put it off until we return.

Let’s start by brewing up a big mug of Costa Rica Cerro Dragon Geisha Honey ($12.00/4oz.) from RamsHead Coffee Roasters of Bozeman, Montana. It is said to be an invitingly complex Costa Rica honey-processed cup with notes of tropical fruit, sweet herbs, and crisp cocoa.

Now grab a seat by a south-facing window and listen to Khatia Buniatishvili play Schubert’s “Impromptu No. 3 in G-Flat Major, Op. 90, D. 899”. It isn’t played in front of a live audience, so no coughing, etc.

Schubert wrote eight solo piano pieces called impromptus. An impromptu is a musical work, usually for a solo instrument, in this case, piano. Schubert composed this work the year before he died:

An Economic Closing Argument for Democrats

The Daily Escape:

Snake River, Grand Teton NP, WY – October 2022 photo by Hilary Bralove

Yesterday, Wrongo said that the Dems should add a focus on inflation and the economy to their closing argument when asking voters to keep them in power. Here’s a suggestion of what that argument might look like from David Doney (@David_Charts on Twitter). Doney draws his stats from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (known as FRED) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Below is an extract from his Twitter feed:

Jobs: More Americans are working than at any time in history: 153 million. The economy now has 500k more jobs than it did before the pandemic. The unemployment rate is 3.5%, the lowest since 1969. With more people working there’s more spending.

Wealth: The bottom half of US households have an average real net worth of $67,200, the highest ever. Under Trump, it was just $34,648. (While Trump gave tax cuts to the wealthy. Biden gave them to the middle and lower class.) Even those in the 50th to 90th percentile are doing better under Biden: average real net worth is now $747,010 vs. $699,530 under Trump. It’s important to remember that these are averages not median net worth numbers, which are lower. Median net worth in the US is $121,700, up 17.6 % from 2016.

Income: Real wages are higher than before the pandemic. Despite what some pundits say, they have outpaced inflation. From February 2020 to last month, wages for production and non-supervisory workers have risen 15.6%, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen 14.6%. So Americans’ purchasing power is greater today than it was in 2019.

The deficit: Our annual federal budget deficit is 50% lower than it was last year. It was $2.8 trillion in fiscal year 2021 and is $1.4 trillion this year, according to CBO estimates. Government income is up and government spending is down: Revenues are $850 billion (or 21%) higher and spending is $548 billion (or 8%) lower.

This continues the historical pattern of Democratic administrations being more fiscally responsible than Republicans. Yet the GOP’s closing argument includes screaming about Democratic spending which they say caused inflation. They are trying to convince Americans who either don’t read or bother to check facts that it’s the Democrats who spend like crazy. The opposite is true.

The economy: The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) hit an all-time high of $20 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2021, and currently is $19.9 trillion (for the second quarter of this year). The Atlanta Fed thinks GDP will grow 2.8% in the third quarter. So no recession just yet. In fact, Doney reports that the six key indicators that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) uses to decide if we’re in a recession were all up from June to September.

Health insurance: Biden revived the Obamacare signup campaigns and advertising that Trump had eliminated. And now 92% of Americans (and more than 98% of kids) have health insurance, an all-time high. Before Obamacare, close to 18% of Americans had no health insurance.

There’s no doubt that many Americans are worried about the high prices at the grocery store and at the gas pump. But one reason inflation has increased is because people have more money in their pockets. Americans have $4 trillion more in their bank accounts than they did before the pandemic. So they’re working, earning money, and spending it.

The other factor driving inflation is the consolidation of companies into just a handful of major corporations, and the ability of those corporations to jack up prices. Corporate profits are at a 70-year high, yet American corporations are still raising prices. They’re doing so because there’s so little competition.

Republicans in Congress won’t stop corporate price gouging. And we know the GOP will blame Dems for high federal spending (which, as said above, is down 8% so far vs. last year). But the GOP won’t let the facts get in the way of their bad policies. They’ll use this manufactured crisis, along with refusing to raise the debt ceiling, to try to force Democrats to support cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and other social safety net programs.

As blog reader T. Grosso commented yesterday: (Brackets by Wrongo)

“It is such a good question to ask what the Republicans will do if they gain control. We obviously know the answer. They will block anything and everything that might help people so they can blame Biden for [it in] 2024.”

The Democrats’ closing argument needs to include a strong, populist message. They should be saying that Democrats believe people must come before profits. Dan Pfeiffer reports:

“The folks at Data for Progress tested a series of messages on inflation and found that emphasizing corporate greed was an effective pushback on concerns about inflation.”

OTOH, the inflation and economic message must be carefully crafted. It could backfire with some who have missed the current jobs market and are struggling to pay their bills.

Democrats should acknowledge the pain caused by high prices while pointing out that a strong economy and the Party’s fiscal responsibility are helping many people cope with higher prices today and will help to reduce inflation in the near future.

Dems Have To Talk About Inflation

The Daily Escape:

Blueberry barrens, Sedgewick, ME – Via. The blueberry plants turn red like trees because they’re also preparing for winter dormancy.

We’ve been writing about how the threat of losing both the House and Senate weighs on Democrats. Inflation and the economy are said to be voters’ top concerns in recent polls. This week’s NYT/Siena College survey showed that 26% of respondents cited the economy, while another 18% chose inflation as their No. 1 issue.

The Dem’s lack of messaging about inflation needs to be adjusted because inflation is hitting hardest in a few swing states like Georgia, Arizona, and Florida. From the Right-leaning Washington Times:

“The Phoenix metropolitan area has the highest inflation rate in the nation at 13%, the worst of any US city in more than 20 years and twice as high as the rate in San Francisco. It’s a high hurdle for Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona as he tries to fend off a challenge from Republican Blake Masters.”

Kelly currently holds a one-point lead in the latest survey.

Wallet Hub says that the US metropolitan area with the second-highest inflation rate is Atlanta, where consumer prices are 11.7% higher than a year ago. Senate Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock holds a four point lead. One message that’s lost in the inflation debate is, as Georgia’s Sen. Warnock says:

“While we are seeing record prices, a lot of our corporate actors are seeing record profits in the gas industry and the pharmaceutical industry.”

Two metros in Florida: Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, and West Palm beach (10.7%), along with Tampa-St. Petersburg (10.5%), are in the top four highest inflation cities, and Marco Rubio (R) holds a 4.7-point lead, with Democrat Val Demings having an uphill fight.

Philadelphia ranks 14^th in metropolitan area inflation, at 8.1%. Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman leads by 2%.

Nationally, the inflation rate is 8.2%.

Nearly two-thirds of consumer spending goes to services rather than products. Services are now the key driver of US inflation. The CPI for services increased in September for the 13th month in a row, and by the most since 1982. Housing costs spiked, but so did other services, such as health insurance (up 28% year-over-year). Airline fares rose by 42.9%, while motor vehicle maintenance and repair rose by 11.1%.

One of the worst categories is the CPI for “food at home”, or food bought in stores and at markets. It spiked by 0.7% in September from August. Year-over-year, the CPI for food at home jumped by 13.0%, led by eggs which are up by 30.5%. Food inflation is particularly insidious because it hits lower-income consumers the most, since they spend a larger share of their budget on food.

The key question for Democratic candidates in swing states during the last weeks before the midterms is how to talk about the economy when inflation remains above 8% and maybe is even higher in their state.

Democratic strategist Mike Lux has warned that Democrats can’t duck talking about inflation at a time when it’s the Republicans’ primary campaign issue. Lux says how Democrats should explicitly address inflation:

Wealthy corporations with monopoly power are jacking up their prices, and their profits are going through the roof.
Drug prices and health insurance premiums are going to go down because of the Inflation Reduction Act…while Republicans have no plan of their own.
Seniors will be getting the biggest increase in their Social Security payments (8.7%, more than current inflation) in 40 years…while Republicans are talking about ending Social Security.

But Dems should also ask why voters think that if Republicans return to power that they will actually fight against inflation and improve the economy? If they get back in power all they’ll offer is tax cuts and financial austerity. They’re saying they will jeopardize the future of Social Security and Medicare.

Their House Speaker-in-waiting, Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has said in an interview with Punchbowl that he will hold the national debt ceiling hostage next year, a move that the WaPo’s Catherine Rampell warns “could easily precipitate a global financial catastrophe.”

The economy is a difficult issue for Dems this year, and many are afraid to talk about inflation. But they have an excellent legislative record to run on and the best job market in 40 years. Democrats have plenty to say about inflation if they connect it to broader economic themes where they have a strong message.

For sure, Dems can talk about Republicans’ appalling destruction of reproductive rights, but we can’t expect to win the election on that alone.

More Midterm Madness

The Daily Escape:

Sunset, Thumpertown Beach, Cape Cod, MA – October 2022 iPhone photo by Wrongo

We’re back from a truly delightful time with family and friends on Cape Cod. The next few days will be hectic because we’re leaving again on Sunday, this time for a week in London.

About the November midterms. It seems clear that the polls are tightening in many races. Some of that is natural and to be expected as the political horse races head down the stretch. Some pundits like Amy Walter, think that this demonstrates that the Dems have reached the ceiling for their support in 2022:

“So, basically, what…I’m hearing from…sources in the campaigns is that Democrats may have maxed out that enthusiasm gap they got over the issue of abortion and that growing beyond that is going to be the challenge.”

Robert Hubbell agrees that recent polls have swung towards the GOP, but questions whether these polls reflect the facts on the ground:

“Never before in American history have we faced the elimination of an existing Constitutional right for 51% of the population. Never before have we faced a party whose platform seeks to end the very democracy they seek to rule…”

Saturday Soother – October 15, 2022

The Daily Escape:

Lobster boats at dusk, Lubec Harbor, Lubec, ME – October 2022 photo by Rick Berk Photography

Wrong and Ms. Right are chilling on Cape Cod. We took time out from doing nothing to watch the Jan. 6 Committee’s most likely final hearing on Thursday. You know by now that the Committee voted unanimously to subpoena Trump. You also know that he will never appear.

The Committee has to wrap up its work and publish it before the next Congress is sworn in, January 2023. And the most important thing that they can do is to make a criminal referral to the DOJ for Trump and a few of his fellow travelers like Roger Stone, Michael Flynn, John Eastman, and Jeffrey Clark. The Committee also must share the entirety of their investigative record with the DOJ as soon as possible.

If they delay until the new Congress is sworn, and if it’s controlled by Republicans, the new Speaker will dissolve the Committee and refuse to cooperate with the DOJ.

But let’s move on and talk a little about the price of chicken. It’s going up bigly, but rotisserie chickens at Costco are still $4.99, as they have been for more than 20 years.

Chicken is our most popular meat: Americans consume 99 pounds per capita, way more than beef (56 lbs.), pork (52 lbs. ) or fish (19 lbs.). That’s 20 whole chickens per person, per year. The Hustle reports that about 10% of the chicken we eat are rotisserie cooked, and that Costco sells around 12% of all rotisserie chickens in the US. They began selling a 3 lb. cooked chicken for $4.99 in 2000. And 22 years later, the bird still costs $4.99. Adjusted for inflation, the Costco rotisserie chicken should be selling for $8.31, but they’re keeping the price low because nobody walks into Costco and comes out with just one chicken.

Costco says that they are losing a ton of profit on cheap chicken. In 2015, the CEO estimated that the lost profit was around $40 million. They have worked to control costs by opening their own chicken processing facility in Nebraska in 2019. That one facility produces 43% of Costco’s rotisserie chicken requirements. Costco reports that it saves them 35¢/chicken. And their rotisserie chickens have their own Facebook page with 19k followers.

Want to save on your food bills? Eat more Costco chicken.

It’s time for us to spend a few minutes decompressing from another week of crummy news. That means it’s time for our Saturday Soother. As Wrongo writes this, he’s looking at an Atlantic Ocean tidal inlet. The weather for the past week has been fantastic, but we’ve had very high winds and lots of rain to start this weekend.

Still, the shore birds are congregating on a small sand bar that’s visible at low tide in front of our rental house. They are often joined by a solitary man who motors over in a small skiff and spends an hour bent over at the waist with a clamming rake, hunting for shellfish treasures. He seems reasonably successful, returning every day at low tide to toss a bunch of clams into a plastic bucket, hop back in the skiff and motor away.

Wrongo couldn’t bend over at the waist and rake for an hour without needing spine surgery.

As you cruise into the weekend, start by brewing up a mug of Kenya Nyeri Hill coffee ($12.50/12 oz.) from Road Map Coffee works, in Lexington in Virginia’s Shenandoah Valley. The roaster says that it has a chocolaty finish with notes of red currant and tangerine zest.

Now grab a seat on the deck and listen and watch “Kol Nidrei” by Max Bruch. Bruch wrote it in 1880. It is an Adagio based on two Hebrew Melodies for Cello and Orchestra, consisting of a series of variations on two themes of Jewish origin. Many mistakenly believed that Bruch was Jewish because he wrote this piece, but he was not. From Bruch:

“Even though I am a Protestant, as an artist I deeply felt the outstanding beauty of these melodies and therefore I gladly spread them through my arrangement…”

Here it is played in 2018 by the Frankfurt Radio Symphony under the direction of Paavo Järvi. The cello soloist is Mischa Maisky, who was born in Ukraine:

The Midterms Need Your Support

The Daily Escape:

Fort Hill, Eastham, Cape Cod, MA – October 2022 photo by Wrongo

Anyone else getting nervous about the midterms? As Wrongo has said, the avalanche of frantic email solicitations from Democrats can worry you even if you are by nature, an optimistic person.

Wrongo has recommended three Senate candidates as worthy of donations: Fetterman in PA, Kelly in AZ, and Warnock in GA. But there are other paths to retaining the Senate for Democrats.

Wrongo wants to add Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) to that list. He’s currently in a virtual tie with the execrable JD Vance to succeed the retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH). But Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2020. One issue for Ryan is that the Democratic campaign funding arms have not been very supportive of Ryan in his bid to help them retain the Senate. NBC has reported that the decision by Democrats to put money elsewhere reflected a judgment about which races they believed they were most likely to win.

But Ryan’s surprising showing thus far in Ohio indicates that those judgments may not have been correct. While Vance has raised about $46 million, principally from Mitch McConnell ($30 million and from authoritarian entrepreneur Peter Theil ($15 million), Ryan has relied on small donors to fund his campaign. Still, with four weeks to go, Ryan has a decent chance of pulling off an upset (assuming the polling is accurate). If Ryan wins, it almost certainly ensures that Democrats maintain their majority in the Senate.

ICYMI, on Monday, Ryan debated Vance. The consensus is that Ryan easily beat him. From Jennifer Rubin in the WaPo:

“Ryan’s performance should be mandatory viewing for Democratic contenders. They should pay attention to Ryan’s tone and demeanor. He repeatedly took down his opponent without appearing nasty. His tone was more incredulous (Can you believe this guy?) than angry. Ryan looks like a regular guy. He appeared totally at ease, often standing with one hand in his pocket.”

From Ryan in the debate: (parenthesis by Wrongo)

“We need leaders who have courage to take on their own party, and I’ve proven that, and he (Vance) was called an ass-kisser by the former president. Ohio needs an ass-kicker, not an ass-kisser.”

Ryan also challenged Vance’s support for police by reminding voters that Vance had contributed money to a defense fund for a Jan. 6th rioter.

Ryan’s being one point ahead with a month to go, and his shellacking of Vance in the debate should give Democrats some hope that he has a decent chance to pick up a Senate seat for Democrats in Ohio. So send him some dough at his direct site: https://timforoh.com/. Going direct means he won’t have to share a portion of your money with other candidates, which is what happens when you give to Vote Blue.

Wrongo stumbled across another idea (hat tip, Robert Hubbell) that you might consider using in an effort to get out the vote for the midterms. It’s called relational organizing, by which you reach out to your friends directly. Studies show texts from friends are 29 times more effective at bringing positive results than texts from strangers. And SwipeBlue is an app that helps you find all of the Democrats in your contact list by matching your phone contacts to the public voter files. It is secure, and since it doesn’t save the data, it also protects your privacy.

The app helps you divide your contacts into Blue and Red. The contacts that aren’t in either bucket can be coded Green. You can then text your Democratic friends with a call to vote by swiping the blue - like Tinder for voting. The app then helps you to send them a customizable get out the vote text.

It can also help with registering them to vote, or to vote absentee.

This is critical since at least one current poll from the Morning Consult, shows that Democrats are flagging in voter enthusiasm. The chart below compares voter enthusiasm in 2018 with 2022. Democrats are lagging by 6 points over 2018:

Republicans are only one point lower than they were in 2022. While Independents are 6 points higher, there’s no reason to think that all of that increase will break toward the Dems. So texting your friends an encouraging message may be important.

This message while relaxing on Cape Cod is that we can’t relax. So open your wallets in races that are close and try texting a few friends.

Both could make a big difference.

The Wrongologist

Geopolitics, Power and Political Economy

Author: wrongologist

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The Midterms Need Your Support